WxWatcher007

High of 40.4° here

I really hope I am. I think that we get very few big dog opportunities that appear yearly, and this weekend storm was one of them. Assuming that dropped a foot, there’s a huge difference heading into the final 1/3 of January with ~16” (36% of climo) vs 4” (8%). I do think we’ll get snow, but I’m highly skeptical it’ll be a double digit one (imby). Edit: I’ll throw a number out too. I think I see 22-27” between now and the end of March. That’d put me between 26-31” on the season.

I’m 100% out and here is what I mean. I won’t turn my nose at cold and snow. Any time flakes fall it’s something to be grateful for. You never know when it’ll be the last time you enjoy snow. I will be here and engage with people (maybe a little less but still here) but in my heart I know that another well below normal season imby is close to a lock. I totally respect the idea that the future is always uncertain, there’s plenty of time left, the pattern looking ahead is good etc., but I simply do not believe that I will see approximately 40-45” of snow between now and March 15 to bring me to normal. Aside from my slow burn the last few days I won’t be crapping up threads whenever there is something to track. I don’t cancel winter lightly. I want to be wrong. I’m pretty sure I’m not.

Patience gone. We out. I do like to see the cold linger for once. We just need as many swings as possible. Better to bat .100 on many opportunities than few.

It’s great to have the cold. I’d love meaningful snow to go with it.

The models to all of SNE once we thought there was hope for a storm. Everyone knows where I stand. Nothing else to add.

Always ten days away

I’ll pay for this miracle for the next decade.

That’s winter of yore stuff here

Going from 0 in January to 6” in February won’t do much for me

I see that already when I drive from here to any town to my north, south, and east. The neighbors can pay for their own snow.

Looking forward to the drone-supercomputer partnership that allows me to pay for the weather in my backyard someday. A nice 3-6” layer of snow on my little acre Christmas morning will be well worth the $899.99.

Less than 4” in the Feb 2024 miracle? The difference between a HECS and BECS in 2020s SNE!

And that’s what fascinates me. There is this element of unpredictability that occurs on both a mesoscale and synoptic level that has an enormous impact on people and the environment. It’s the EF5 that destroys a house and spares another. It’s the snow/mix line that gives one part of town 6” of snow and a place a few miles away half that. It’s being 20 miles from the eye of a hurricane and watching it wobble as landfall approaches. It’s watching a window for a blizzard open and close. There is so much to consider.

Yeah—I think the point that I’ve tried to make around here, especially going back to my days living in the DC area, is that the models while extraordinarily powerful and useful have a limitation to their reliability. They’re tools, not prophets. They don’t make it snow and they don’t have the ability to take it away. I do think at some point the big dog threat became less likely, obviously, but I don’t view weather as “meant to be” regardless of the outcome. The best way that I can articulate this I think is with tropical. You have a hurricane. It’s clearly in an environment that’s favorable for explosive intensification. It’s intensifying. The observed conditions suggest that it could continue taking off—and some do while others don’t. The potential is real whether or not the ingredients come together at the right/wrong place at the right/wrong time. With this system, we all knew the potential was there. It just wasn’t realized. That doesn’t make the potential any less real to me. Hopefully that makes sense.

That’s incredible

lol I’m so jaded. My very first thought when reading this was “And it can go straight to hell just like its daddy”. All joking and emotion aside, I disagree here. I think the setup was as good as we could legitimately have, and while it turned out to fail, it was real at some point. That’s why I’m on the cusp of pulling the plug on it all. If we want anywhere close to normal, we can’t expect 1-2” events every ten days to two weeks to get us there. And assume February will just be fine. It’ll look nice and I won’t poo poo snow, but it’s objectively bad to have DC, Dallas, and maybe even Atlanta surpassing my seasonal total at any time, let alone in mid-January.

Yes. For the love of God let us get a setup we can’t possibly screw up.

I didn’t say don’t look. Just buyer beware. We literally just had an epic model collapse at medium range…including the Infallible Euro…on the very same threat.

Looking objectively it is a nice look and has trended stronger. That said, it’s on an island. At least with regard to its potency.

My meltdown will be complete by Sunday. I won’t make it that far.

It literally makes me sick. Don’t worry though, the models will make it up by being unanimously unwavering on the D10 cutter.