WxWatcher007

Well we shall see if the prophet is right. Now designated as Invest 97L.

Good spin but as you can see from the size of the wave it is probably going to take a little time to consolidate.

With the steering pattern it’s worth a casual eye. That’s it. This is like tracking a HECS signal at D12. Sometimes they turn out real. Most times they don’t. Sometimes it snows in Pensacola.

Days and days of weenie runs at fantasy range

Talk about a heater. Basically two islands in the gigantic expanse of the Atlantic basin getting all the hits. It’s worse than Moose Glute, ME getting all the snow.

Idub is that you?

Think of our Atlantic Canada friends!

This might be one of the very worst forecasts I’ve ever attempted

Yeah that's exactly it. The op models are always good for drama, but the ensembles are where it's at long range if one is really trying to analyze. The signal for something getting to the SW Atlantic is there IMO, but who knows about beyond that. The failed low off the SE coast is a prime example of this. Models kept driving it into the Carolina coast because they saw it being trapped under a ridge...until the guidance recognized a weakness that wasn't previously analyzed.

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though.

Just remember that with time, errors on computer guidance increase exponentially. So at the very early stages like now when there’s no low level center and no vertically stacked system it’s going to be exceptionally hard for models or even ensembles to nail a long range forecast—anything beyond about 7 days imo.

Good time to bust this out. We have an eternity to go. A lot will change.

I wouldn’t have any concern to be honest about a trip anywhere. This wave just left the African coast and is at best 10 days away from the US. I’m not even thinking about the logistics of a chase yet and with good reason. First, the operational models (GFS/Euro) cannot be relied on for meaningful detailed accuracy at that range, especially for tropical. Even if they agree. They get posted here because they’re just fodder for our analysis and speculation at this range. Second, there are a multitude of factors that can and will impact the eventual outcome of this. There’s confidence in a ridge but will there be any troughs or weaknesses available to recurve this? A stronger ridge to push this in the Caribbean? Will it even develop or will it get choked by dry air or ripped apart by shear? No way of knowing at this range. I’d keep a casual eye on it, and maybe have a plan if this looks like a real possibility 6-7 days from now, but I wouldn’t change any plans. My .02

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

At least right now the GFS, Euro, and second tier models are in agreement that this one develops within the next 6 days or so. With 96L out of the way and a cross-guidance signal for strong Atlantic ridging this does look like a candidate to at least get to the SW Atlantic. From there, who knows. There are almost always unmodeled troughs/weaknesses at this range that could easily kick it before getting close to the US.

Isaias was a big hit, at least here. Joaquin is an all timer

I can't imagine the NHC will wait too much longer before tagging the newest wave given the signal across guidance, but with 96L "underperforming" (great call @Newman) we see how a model signal can change on a dime in this environment.

Agree about "significant uptick" but the subseasonal environment is getting more favorable. And if you're the kind of person looking for land impacts you probably want only one game in town--or at least widely spaced systems--otherwise you'll likely end up with ridging weaknesses all over for easy recurves. My current thought is that 96L underperforming may actually open the door for a closer approach of the follow up wave because the weakness in the ridging that is going to take 96L away will have the ability to close before the wave leaving Africa can reach it.

It’s a little early for put up or shut up since we’re not even at peak yet, but next week does need to produce something.

This has been an impressive stretch. Got down to 53° here last night. Need something to develop before it can become a threat. A fair amount of wasted potential in an increasingly favorable TC genesis environment so far this month. But next week should be a whole different ballgame with a more favorable environment for the latest wave.

Between this wx and preseason football now going…the itch for fall won’t be too far behind. Maybe when the coming heat wave breaks.

In all seriousness, deep summer is about to make a comeback. The dog days are looking hot.

Complete with the wave train in the Atlantic starting to cook—hot everywhere

I’m not sure, but just last year we had two majors hit Florida in ~10 days of each other.