We half kid around here about model dopamine drips, but when you think of how that’s manufactured on social media through likes and other algorithms it’s really incredible. And horrifying.
I need to see this take root on other guidance at 00z. Euro is on an island until then. Would definitely like to see a stronger vort and less confluence combination.
Edit: ninja’d by Will
I posted about 12z earlier. It’s an outlier but if the Euro could find its former glory for this one that’d be great lol. I was very close to punting this morning but we’ve seen plenty of instances of the confluence seeing substantive changes on guidance outside of 48h.
Still think anything that happens would be light at best but with a cold regime in place that would at least bring back some wintry appeal as the 11th and beyond gets into greater focus.
It’s an outlier yada yada and I know nobody cares in Mass and points north, but the Euro did try to get very light precip a touch further north with 1/6.
I don’t think it’s coming back for a region wide crusher obviously but even .1 of qpf could be good for a ground whitener if someone can steal it.
Happy New Year!
We rain. We thunder. We pour. We keep lights up until winter has sufficiently failed or satisfied me.
Wishing all a happy and prosperous year ahead.
I think it’d probably depend. I kind of bake in now that winters will be shorter and more crappy than nice so it’s not a huge leap that in an awful season I capitulate.
I’d probably need another few years of futility to be open to an early February flip though. At this time March is still my psychological barrier for cold to warm(er) season.
I view the NAO a lot like EMLs during the warm season. They don’t guarantee anything and are often useless, but in the right place at the right time they can make a mundane setup explosive.
I don’t think it’s all sorted out yet but I think tiresome is definitely the summation of the moment. Even in what should be an excellent pattern regime it seems like we’re fighting uphill to get anything meaningful. Years of fighting uphill no matter the upper level depiction.
I do think we can get some confluence changes in the coming days with the 6/7 deal to bring a light event back on the table but again, fighting uphill.
Congrats DCA
That said, we’re not going to bat 1.000 in this pattern, we just have to hope for as many swings as possible and not whiff on the 50mph fastball in the center of the zone that is the 10-12th period.
I have to say it is pretty disheartening to see that sw get annihilated coming out of the Midwest. Downright nauseating. Maybe it gives a chance for a coastal to take over though and salvage something.