WxWatcher007

Not necessarily—I don’t have time to illustrate it but the wave looks like it is further south and likely to get caught up in the monsoon trough. That increases the odds of development because it likely puts more distance between the wave and the TUTT as it moves westward and tries to develop. But there’s a lot to sort out still.

Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR.

I think this first wave is most likely to be the beneficiary of a CCKW and may be early enough to avoid a developing TUTT. Anything caught near that will get ripped apart. The basin is still hostile and won’t change until the basin wide forcing changes with the cycling MJO. It’s almost September so I don’t think it’s a huge departure from climo.

I expected a dead period first half of the peak. There are no real surprises in the basin right now. It’s hostile now, won’t be in a few weeks (though the lemon does have solid odds of development with a locally favorable window).

I think that’s true in general, but I think there are times where the thermal environment is more supportive of high end activity, especially when combined with ENSO driven reduction in shear. Caribbean SSTs are warmer than normal but not outrageous while Gulf temps are near record. The OHC anomalies are focused in the western Gulf with the exception of the loop current.

I’m not saying it’ll be upper 60s to low 70s all September, but at BDL climo is 81/59 today and 77/55 two weeks from now. Solidly above in a backsliding climo isn’t really deep summer as we progress through September.

I don’t know how anyone can hate this unless you’re at the beach. Fall is here. It is what it is.

Somber day. Hard to believe Katrina was 20 years ago.

Thank you for sharing. I think I just read the same thing. I know that eventually the new flood protection system was built which helped the city in future storms, but we saw its limits with big flash flooding during Francine last year. Not trying to make a political statement here, but what happened to that $140B is a real reminder that there has to be oversight and accountability from the start.

Today is the 20th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall along the Gulf Coast. I was a young tropical weenie during the 2005 season and I could not believe the devastation in New Orleans and along the Alabama and Mississippi coast. The human tragedy is beyond words. Feel free to share your stories and reflections here.

This is a pretty incredible story. The wx out west is nothing to play with. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/27/weather/lake-tahoe-storm.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hk8.AL5L.IIiQurcDmo5X&smid=url-share

There's no doubt that Erin has left a substantial wake--even more than I originally anticipated, but I'm not sure the wake has reduced the threat to the U.S. much, if at all. My analysis here is mostly based on location. Erin safely recurved between 70 and 75W. That's a location where many WNW and especially NW moving systems find their way getting kicked OTS. If a system is moving NW at 72W, it probably isn't going to be a threat to the U.S., especially given the current predominant steering pattern. If this wake were between 75 and 80W however, it'd signal to me that a bona fide threat to the U.S., a system moving through the Bahamas and just off the southeast coast, or a system moving northward from the very warm central and western Caribbean, would find a hostile thermodynamic environment. As it stands though, something hugging the coast is still likely to find enough positive SST anomalies and OHC to be a significant system if other atmospheric factors are also favorable. Let's say however that there is some hurricane that is moving westward or NW through that wake a month from now. A repeat of Florence for instance. It would certainly run into problems given its intensity moving toward the coast, but on final approach, it would find a more favorable thermodynamic environment. That opens the door to what we've seen frequently in recent years--intensification in the hours before landfall. It's an entirely different story if that wake is hugging the coast. Perhaps there is additional cooling given the current pattern, though I'd argue that it's hard to get a sense of where this area will stand in about a month, objectively the waters are still warm enough to be conducive, depending on the intensity of the hurricane. So while for now at least we've probably avoided the worst case scenario along the east coast with certain tracks, we are nowhere close to eliminating other viable, bad, options. I just don't want people getting a false sense of security that Erin and this current upper level pattern will save us...as recent years have shown us we can be incredibly active even when environmental conditions suppress weeks of peak season. That is my expectation of this season as well.

That sounds insane

Just did a quick look up of yellow jackets and I had no idea their hive can have thousands in it. I'm always extra careful doing yard work. No problems yet (knocks wood).

Can confirm that despite it being 73° it’s still plenty hot in direct sun. Also—WTTTE on that coastal. We boring for the foreseeable.

What's the link to that again? There's been a strong ensemble (EPS) signal for some type of low to develop off the coast this weekend. I have zero interest right now given the possibility that this just trends to some strung out mess that gets ejected OTS, but if there were a way to get some tropical or hybrid up this way (or at least rain), this could work. We meh for now.

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

It’s only one case @weatherwiz but you might find this interesting

Truly spectacular late summer evening

Which is why I’m glad I didn’t go with a major EC hit, though I was tempted.

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it.

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.

I'll also add that these landfalls you mention also highlight just how difficult it is to get an east coast hurricane strike. Much like New England, but obviously to a lesser degree, it takes a statistically unlikely alignment of steering forces to bring a major hurricane to the EC, even with homebrew nearby.

Thanks for the question. I think it's too specific to look at a place like FL vs the Carolina coast. Part of the analysis is pretty basic. The more active a season is the more likely there is a landfall generally, just because more storms equal more opportunities. In my analysis though, it goes a little beyond that. First, look at the thermodynamic environment in the genesis and "final track" (locations that a TC would need to cross to make landfall) areas. In spite of Erin's impressive wake, there is still an enormous amount of untapped potential in the Gulf, Caribbean, and in the southwest Atlantic. Second, I think the ENSO and wet Sahel analysis is compelling. I think the wet Sahel in particular is interesting because track density is consistent with what looks like a hostile tropical Atlantic that suppresses waves until you approach the Antilles and SW Atlantic. I also think that the anomalous troughing that we're seeing now in the east, while certainly a pattern for recurves, would quickly become a pattern for pulling Caribbean or SW Atlantic homebrew systems north if you look at it, especially if that pattern retrogrades as we head deeper into September (where I doubt we produce consecutive negative departure months in the eastern part of the country. I also think climatology plays a role here. @GaWx had a very interesting post looking at east coast landfalls later in the peak season. Storm genesis location matters here, and I am thinking with a slightly less robust wave train from past years, we see vigorous, but weaker waves that can get further west into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic. This could have implications for the eastern Gulf, but I do think troughing will be more of a feature that would lead to earlier turns than the western Caribbean unless something obviously develops there. I do think homebrew is the most likely way the east coast sees a hurricane strike. I actually think it probably means less of a chance, unless there is meaningful activity in the eastern Gulf (which has also been a hot spot of late so that can't be ruled out).