WxWatcher007

Looks like a nascent eye was trying to develop as of a few hours ago.

Speculative at this point but I think anything from a TS to C3 are possible. I agree with the odds of a 4 being very low. I've said this elsewhere but we have to remember that major hurricane strikes along the east coast are actually pretty rare. Since 1990 there have only been three. Andrew '92, Fran '96, and Jeanne '04. Here, there's a window where this will likely intensify, but near the coast future Imelda may have to deal with the effects of southerly shear and dry air being imparted into the circulation. Along with cooler temperatures near the coast. That said, the Euro has intensification near landfall, probably because there should be a strong outflow channel to the north. Right now there is a robust mid-level circulation apparent on satellite. We really need to see how that translates as it reaches the high SST/OHC environment near the Bahamas tomorrow. Given its current appearance and how Humberto was able to more quickly develop and intensify in its environment, I do think it's on the board that this has an impressive appearance tomorrow if shear relents some.

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025 Humberto continues to gain strength while moving slowly over the central Atlantic. The system is exhibiting a growing CDO feature with cloud tops to near -70 deg C, along with some convective bands over the eastern portion of the circulation, where most of the lightning flashes are currently occurring. The advisory intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB and a blend of objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm's forward speed is quite slow with a motion estimate of only 320/3 kt. Steering currents are not strong at this time since the subtropical ridge to the north of Humberto is quite weak. Global model forecasts show the ridge strengthening with time and in a few days the cyclone should move somewhat faster toward the northwest and turn northward in the vicinity of 70 W longitude. By the end of the forecast period, after Humberto passes north of the ridge, the system should begin accelerating northeastward. Cirrus motions indicate that the vertical wind shear over Humberto has lessened, and the SHIPS model output does not show the shear increasing much through 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be very warm along the projected path of the cyclone, and the system should remain embedded in a moist air mass. The official forecast continues to call for significant strengthening during the next few days. This is consistent with the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, forecast which also shows Humberto intensifying into a major hurricane this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.2N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust to 86 mph (138 km/h) was recently reported by a station on Terceira Island in the central Azores at an elevation of 884 feet (269 m). Closer to sea level, a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was measured at Ponta Furada on Faial Islan

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it.

Pig ridge stretching from International Falls to Iceland?

I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is.

Maybe. This is a pretty anomalous ridge for this time of year I think.

I'm still a bit skeptical of such a strong ridge, but if that is the case we will need to watch if future Imelda is able to get back offshore. If so, the guidance seems to believe some sort of regeneration is possible, and with that ridge rolling east that would probably lead to something running up the coast either inland or just offshore. Fantasy range but something to monitor.

That is an impressive ridge on the GFS that stops future Imelda’s northward progress right in its tracks.

Hammering home the point that—for anyone lurking—even with the trend from the Euro and GFS, there is still a **high** amount of uncertainty on eventual track and intensity. Nothing is locked in yet.

First time all season this thread has been hot lol

Not sure if it’d happen today as the 2pm TWO didn’t mention it, but maybe at 11pm and almost certainly tomorrow given it’s proximity to the islands.

This could really be a prolific rainmaker if it gets trapped under the ridge.

Only in New England.

I think regardless of track there’s going to be a flood risk maybe up to the Mid-Atlantic given the upper level setup. Hopefully not to this extent though.

This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range.

I was just going to post—no surprise being just over 100 hours out but the GEFS essentially follow the op but with more of a NC threat. Everything is still on the table but I’m not convinced this hooks well into SC. I think that’s an unusual track climatologically speaking.

Some of the second tier models still have a binary interaction that pulls future Imelda away, but with the Euro/GFS/AI models aligning at least right now that increases the risk to the coast substantially imo. Still, any one solution is far from guaranteed.

Yup building ridge to the north just traps it. Of course, that’s the furthest out and least confident part of the forecast.

There will be a window for significant intensification but idk how long it’ll be open for. You have near record warmth near the Bahamas and critically this should establish a nice outflow channel with a ULAC over the region and cutoff to the west. It’ll be in near ideal conditions. However, nearing the coast southerly shear could impart dry air and the immediate coastline has cooler SSTs. Folks should remember that major EC strikes are rare. Since 1990 it’s only been Andrew ‘92, Fran ‘96, and Jeanne ‘04.

Not surprising but quite a shift.

Reposting here.

I now believe that Invest 94L is a bona fide threat to the U.S. East Coast. Still, there is enormous uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of what is likely to become Imelda in the coming days. First, let's take a look at Humberto, which will play a critical role in the track of 94L. Although still sheared with the center likely west of the deeper convection, this tropical storm is on a clear organizing trend. The spacing between Humberto and 94L has been a point of discussion for days now. How close these two get will determine whether there will be a binary interaction. The GFS, which after sniffing out the potential for TC development in the SW Atlantic then kind of got lost in trying to consolidate the two waves, has clearly trended toward the Euro--to the extent you can with this much uncertainty in the setup. These are the last 5 GFS runs. Note how the trend has been two-fold. First, there is the obvious change that makes 94L stronger. That decreases the likelihood that it is absorbed by Humberto and given an escape route OTS. The second change is the spacing. It's subtle, but can be seen easily. A stronger and more organized 94L would likely have the outflow necessary to keep Humberto at bay. On the Euro, you see a similar trend with regard to spacing. Note how the escape routes of 1) Humberto and 2) NW flow in New England and SE Canada are blocked. These are the last 3 runs--not including this morning's 06z op run which continues the trend. The spacing difference is more than enough here to limit the impact of Humberto. Are we guaranteed a SE coast hit? Not at all. There are a lot of nuances remaining, including how quickly Humberto intensifies and its forward speed, the amplitude of the ridge and how it develops, and the amplitude of the cutoff over the CONUS. It is very clear, however, that 94L is poised to develop, and it poses a risk to at least the SE coast with regard to a direct hit, with possible impacts further north depending on track.