WxWatcher007

Euro flapping around more than a fish out of water

Get well soon

Oh it’s a lot of fun lol

This setup would probably be a disaster in the winter. A weak storm occluding well south of us with persistent easterly flow sounds like marginal temps with a shredded precipitation shield. Maybe the high would save some of us in the forum but idk here in CT.

Jesus, I was just looking back at my winter wx records. No wonder why winter is my least favorite season now. 2014-15: 27.3" (DC) 2015-16: 28.5" (DC) 2016-17: 5.6" (DC) 2017-18: 12.5" (DC) 2018-19: 30.3" (CT) 2019-20: 16.5" (CT) 2020-21: 44.5" (CT) 2021-22: 28.8" (CT) 2022-23: 13.7" (CT) 2023-24: 24.7" (CT) 2024-25: 19.8" (CT) Unmitigated disaster. For the love of God let's turn this around.

That’s why Miller A’s are the gold standard.

30.2° at WXW1 25.7° at WXW2 (SLK reached 19°)

Surprise! Karen is here. Jerry is struggling and MH is looking unlikely, but H is still in the forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (6) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen

Crazy stuff but yeah, that’s probably a TC or STS.

WXW1 down to 41.8 while HFD is at 48° WXW2 down to 33.3 while SLK is at 27° Yeah, it’s cold up here. Beautiful evening though.

Indeed

Euro is just another model now. Has been for years as you know. Also, hope all is well man. Good to have you back.

There’s apparently a Cape Air (?) commuter flight from SLK to Boston. I wonder what kind of plane they’re using for the 3 people that wanna fly.

That whole GFS run was pretty weenie.

It is happy hour in London.

I feel like I need to find the wx station. I’ve been to the airport it’s tiny.

This will be impactful up and down the east coast. Although it may try to start with some hybrid/tropical characteristics, by the time it’s impacting us it’s a potent nor’easter. Impacts all the same with rain, wind, and possibly significant coastal flooding.

I’m still a little under my numbers for the peak season forecast, but I still think we get something out of the CAG by the 20th. GFS tries to spin something up at 12z. There is an EPS signal too that’s modest.

I tend to be a NHC defender on how they classify things, but the last couple of years have been rough for a few NS they’ve either designated or missed. The 2021 October one, which was later called Subtropical Storm Wanda, was pretty wild. Unnamed and hurricane force gusts on the Cape lol.

Was just going to post. I agree. By the time it’s impacting us it’s a potent nor’easter.

Low of 39.2 at WXW1, which blasted HFD's low of 44. Low of 28.6 at WXW2, which was warmer (as expected) than SLK's low of 23.

Kind of how I feel with the new location, though they’ve done well relative to normal lately. Maybe I need to wish for more of the same

Not as good this year for sure. Pictures still don’t do it justice though. This is the SLK/Lake Placid area.

Although we're in the tropical doldrums, in recent years October has delivered several impressive subtropical or hybrid coastal storms in the region that have brought significant impacts to the coast and/or inland. Although uncertainty remains on the track and intensity of a coastal low that is expected to form later this week, the signal for impacts in SNE has increased. Cyclogenesis begins to occur off the southeast coast late week/early weekend. Although there will be some tropical influence, nobody should be expecting some sort of purely tropical entity to develop. You can see why below. As the system gets pulled north, energy from the Great Lakes region attempts to dive down and phase. Whether it is subtropical by then (unlikely given how the NHC handled a possible subtropical system earlier this season) is irrelevant. This is a coastal storm that will become quite strong and will be "enhanced" by a gradient to the north of the center. There are still differences in track and intensity that will determine if this is just a run of the mill autumn coastal, or something a bit stronger. The Euro keeps the core of the winds and rain to our south with a further south track. Meanwhile, the GFS is more robust, and brings the core of the system closer to the region. Regardless of track, this will be a sprawling system, meaning that you don't actually need to be in the center to get the most impacts, unlike a purely tropical system (which is NOT happening). While the system may bring some much needed rain, I don't think that's the story currently. Persistent onshore flow and wind may be the biggest stories. The extent of coastal flooding will probably depend on the exact track of the system. Strongest winds are likely at the coast of course, but a stronger system with further north ticks could introduce some inland areas to windier conditions. With leaves on the trees that could cause some issues. As @CoastalWxsaid in the other thread, the best way to get wind inland would probably be to get this to peak near the Cape and then rip the low back west as it occludes. Not sure how viable an option that is though with so much likely to happen to our south with regard to the maturation of the low.