WxWatcher007

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear.

Now for the new... Tropical Overview 8/10/25 1. Invest 97L We're on the cusp of a true CV system developing, as 97L continues to organize just off the African Coast. It's still plenty disorganized, and is going to run into a cooler SST environment as it pops northwest (as posted above) but it's looking like one of the rare CVs set to develop in the basin. Ridging in the Atlantic will push this west, but how far west is TBD Ensembles more or less agree that this will got to the northeast of the Antilles, but from there we have significant divergence based on whether there are any troughs imparting a weakness on the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge. That's the key part to all of this, and it cannot be resolved at this range, though with each day we learn a little more. If I had to place a lean on it, I would say OTS or Atlantic Canada due to how much latitude it gains by 60W, but there's a long way to go. 2. Weak disturbance off FL Coast This is more of a curiosity for me than anything, but there's a weak disturbance that's currently ideally positioned off the west coast of Florida. Obviously, SSTs are boiling but that's not enough to pique my interest. The disturbance is parked under an anti-cyclone, which provides the benefit of 1) upper divergence that maintains deep convection and 2) very low shear The models don't do much with it, but if it had some time maybe it could become a little interesting? The big limiting factor is probably time, and the lack of a more robust surface reflection. Vorticity is modest, but that's not enough.

Figure it's time to look at this again to see what happened. 1. Invest 95L became Dexter, so that was a good call. 2. The follow up disturbance off the East Coast never materialized, and was probably one of the worst forecasts I've had. As for why it gave a head fake, I think a combination of shear and dry air (the opposite of what I expected) kept convection from organizing and even generating on a consistent basis. Awful, awful call. 3. The central Atlantic wave became 96L, but this call wasn't much better either. Simply put, MDR stability got it. It has been meandering for days in the open Atlantic, unable to generate consistent convection and organize. Not a good start.

True CVs (actual development near the Cabo Verde Islands) are no different from an HECS. The big dog potential shows up from time to time but you need everything to line up for that potential to materialize.

We are the San Diego of the east, and it has been that way for years now. No storms, no tropical, no snow. Just secondhand smoke and dews.

There’s going to be windshield wipers too on the ensembles.

Agree. It needs to be hugging or very near the Antilles.

Even though it’s looking back at 12z, the super ensemble is probably most useful tool right now. It also gives a good window into where predictability ends and weenie range begins.

Watch it via the vorticity tracker

There’s an eternity Seriously. Odds always favor OTS, but it’s too early to lock in any model or ensemble solution.

With the steering pattern it’s worth a casual eye. That’s it. This is like tracking a HECS signal at D12. Sometimes they turn out real. Most times they don’t. Sometimes it snows in Pensacola.

Days and days of weenie runs at fantasy range

Talk about a heater. Basically two islands in the gigantic expanse of the Atlantic basin getting all the hits. It’s worse than Moose Glute, ME getting all the snow.

Think of our Atlantic Canada friends!

This might be one of the very worst forecasts I’ve ever attempted

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though.

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

Isaias was a big hit, at least here. Joaquin is an all timer

I can't imagine the NHC will wait too much longer before tagging the newest wave given the signal across guidance, but with 96L "underperforming" (great call @Newman) we see how a model signal can change on a dime in this environment.

Agree about "significant uptick" but the subseasonal environment is getting more favorable. And if you're the kind of person looking for land impacts you probably want only one game in town--or at least widely spaced systems--otherwise you'll likely end up with ridging weaknesses all over for easy recurves. My current thought is that 96L underperforming may actually open the door for a closer approach of the follow up wave because the weakness in the ridging that is going to take 96L away will have the ability to close before the wave leaving Africa can reach it.

It’s a little early for put up or shut up since we’re not even at peak yet, but next week does need to produce something.

This has been an impressive stretch. Got down to 53° here last night. Need something to develop before it can become a threat. A fair amount of wasted potential in an increasingly favorable TC genesis environment so far this month. But next week should be a whole different ballgame with a more favorable environment for the latest wave.

Between this wx and preseason football now going…the itch for fall won’t be too far behind. Maybe when the coming heat wave breaks.

In all seriousness, deep summer is about to make a comeback. The dog days are looking hot.