Just like the 00z Euro, I’d need to see more from other guidance to really see it as anything other than an outlier. For reasons posted above though the ceiling is pretty high, even if it doesn’t quite work out in the end.
Plenty of reason for caution. You’re right about there being less wiggle room down there of course. I still like 5-10 broadly after seeing 06z stay away from that mess at 00z.