WxWatcher007

The cutter after the cutter?

Organization before intensification

Low of 33.4 at WXW1 Highly unlikely at this point. The pieces aren’t where they need to be.

HAFS still get this to 140kt+ at 00z so I would look at the Euro with some skepticism tonight. It’s all about the track though.

Yeah no recent microwave passes to confirm. Still, this is probably the most robust it’s looked yet.

It’s off to the races now.

This is such a sensitive track and intensity forecast. Just a few miles south or north would make a huge difference in intensity even though the catastrophic rainfall looks highly likely.

For a beginner, is there a particular make/model that you’d recommend?

It’ll be crazy to see the transformation in 72 hours. Not as dramatic as Gabrielle, but dramatic nonetheless.

Actually thinking of getting a snowmobile. Not sure where to start.

After the decade that’s been we should be used to that by now. Yeah, but let’s see if that disappears at 00z.

They can but the environment is still exceptionally conducive for RI, and HAFS has been excellent in sniffing out the high end solutions. Milton being a prime example from last season.

Nice to have something to track either way. A C4 getting pulled into Maine was never on the table. Hybrid at best, modest to strong nontropical coastal at worst unless that signal dampens.

Do we know why that is?

Both ops kick Melissa with a very strong coastal low. Sub 980mb on both the GFS and Euro verbatim.

I missed on Melissa by 12 hours, but this one is exactly what I talked about in Caribbean risk. It’s a powder keg.

If that trough were cutting off near the Great Lakes, we’d really be in business. But that doesn’t look to be on the table. Too progressive and it gets kicked, so that makes all this a much lower likelihood from the start.

If the EPS is right, we're squarely in the ballpark for some sort of hybrid or "TC guts" as Tip puts it. But what happens in the Caribbean has a huge impact on whether this is kicked or captured in some fashion, and that is a legitimate unknown right now. Location and speed will matter. There's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the coming days--more than usual, but it's hard to look at the EPS and GDMI and not be modestly intrigued. Again, pure tropical is a pipe dream IMO. If people are expecting that, close the shades. If we're talking hybrid though, nobody needs the center riding over their head for a highly impactful storm in New England or Atlantic Canada. A C3 or C4 wrapping into a substantial trough in the east would do, even if it's just off the coast (though if it's captured it'll come NW/NNW).

To Tip’s earlier point, irrespective of what happens with Melissa, there is a strong storm signal on the EPS. If there is any tropical infusion it’ll be a hell of a hybrid for us or Atlantic Canada. There are some absolutely nuclear solutions across guidance.

Let’s get this inside 5 days before we’re talking about wind

Clearly a lot to sort out but this might be interesting. October is still hybrid season..

Meanwhile, the euro and hurricane models continue to go nuclear in a few days. Jamaica is in deep trouble.

Yep. A hell of a winter storm just over the border into Canada though verbatim.

I’ll never forgive T-Blizz for complaining his way to a jackpot in the 2022 blizzard while I was shoveling pixie dust.