Here’s the whole wind discussion (still think hydro is the headline)
Strong winds...
Hi-res guidance is indicating 80-90 kt low level jet at 925 mb
across SE New Eng, peaking 06-10z and moving east of the Cape by
12z. This jet peaks at 5-6SD above normal and the NAEFS ensemble
mean 850 mb wind is greater than the maximum of the CFSR climate
database for this time of year. While this is a very strong signal
for strong to damaging wind, there is some uncertainty with how much
wind will mix down due to low level inversion which is usually the
case with S/SE flow. One strong signal that we normally see with
damaging S/SE wind events is anomalous low pres tracking to the west
with strong pressure falls. We certainly have this for this event.
In fact, guidance is forecasting 8-11 mb pres falls in 3 hours late
tonight which is quite impressive and this will help to enhance the
winds due to the isallobaric acceleration. Our current thinking is
peak gusts 55-65 mph near the south coast through SE MA and Cape
Ann, focused in the midnight to 6 am period. An examination of model
soundings indicate that we need to reach the mid 50s to erode
inversion enough to support these gusts. If temps only reach lower
50s, winds will probably underperform with gusts more in the 45-55
mph range. The other wildcard is all the hi-res guidance sources are
indicating some sort of fine line moving through 08-12z which will
help to enhance wind gusts. In fact, CSU machine learning severe wx
probs are indicating a low risk of severe wind. Overall, we think
this wind event will not be quite as strong as the Dec 17-18 storm
as the low level jet is a bit weaker and not as expansive.
Less wind further inland across interior northern and western MA as
snowpack will help to keep temps cooler (mainly mid/upper 40s)
keeping inversion in place. Expecting peak gusts mainly 35-45 mph
here.