WxWatcher007

Latest sonde: 902mb w/ 22kt wind. Melissa is on the cusp of going sub 900mb.

For us old timers

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Melissa this evening. They found that the system is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near 903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds supporting 150 kt for the current intensity. The hurricane continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C. Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system. Although such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this occurring thus far. After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of around 020/02 kt. During the next few days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern U.S. coast. This should result in Melissa moving north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed through the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and Google DeepMind guidance. The only significant difference in the track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or Central Bahamas. Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short period before Melissa reaches Jamaica. The primary influence on the hurricane's intensity during the next 36 hours will be the interaction with land. Some weakening is anticipated after the system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. More substantial weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to increase significantly. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are anticipated through Tuesday. Failure to take immediate action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is expected to begin shortly. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Dropsonde of 903mb

Not officially, but there is certainly a tangible difference between a hurricane with 160mph winds and one with 170/180mph winds.

No hint of an ERC either

Thanks. 912–>910–>907 is pretty substantive.

Anything close to that extrapolated minimum pressure on a dropsonde would be an impressive drop considering the relatively steady state pressures we’ve seen so far.

Thanks, fixed. My bad lol

Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions. In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall.

Agree. Like last night it probably needs to get a little deeper into the night for the winds to respond to what we're seeing with convection. Still no evidence of an ERC so I'm inclined to think we peak tonight. Maybe a touch closer to 900mb even (but staying just above).

It's been hard getting TT to work along with the recon sites, Jamaica radar, and satellite pages for me

Both recon flights moving in for a NE to SW pass.

Only 3 this year. There were 4 in 2005.

Well go ahead and bookmark this

I saw this graphic earlier and it really speaks to just how there are levels to this, even among C5s. Even Gabby being on the list shows how impacts increase exponentially based on the intensity of a major hurricane.

I posted earlier that absent an ERC we probably see the peak tonight. Looks like we have dual recon flights inbound so we're going to know a lot soon. I'd be surprised if Melissa hasn't intensified more.

Without looking at anything other than possible landfall location, somewhere between Black River and Savanna la Mar would be my hypothetical chase zone with White House (just inland) as the target/staging area.

I'm late, but I was going to say that in a situation like this I think it's prudent for the NHC to wait until recon is there and collecting data to update intensity. They kind of got burned earlier in Melissa's intensification by declaring an intensity that was a little higher than obs showed (but still in the ballpark using the info they had at the time), and there's no reason to speculate this close to landfall. From Treasure Beach to West End is right about 50 miles as the crow flies. Pretty much my second rule of chasing is no Island Roulette as Josh calls it because there's always the risk that the center will wobble enough to miss a landfall (which to be clear to everyone reading, would be awesome here). The problem here is the sharp turn. We've seen many a storm that once they start hooking poleward, they can lean hard enough into a NE heading that it changes a projected landfall zone. With Melissa gaining latitude now, I think it'll be extremely difficult to avoid a landfall.

It's been a very nice fall. Very happy to see things more stormy as well.

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol.

I can't access radar so I can't see, but it seems to me that the earlier moat that existed has been filled and we don't have any indication of an ERC? If that is the case, and we do not have an ERC on the table, tonight may actually be the time when Melissa peaks given the diurnal cycle and its impact on the periods of intensification/convective activity we've seen...This structure is as high end as you can get in the basin. It's also worth noting that this is the only part of the basin where something like this is possible. This last image really crystalizes it. As anomalous as it gets for this time of year.