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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Let’s just make sure it’s not a two week cold period with no production. I can’t get on board with pattern talk anymore. I need results.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Fitting for this all time hurricane
  3. WxWatcher007
    We stopped talking about Melissa here but sure enough it looks like a hit is on the table for Atlantic Canada. St. John’s may get a good storm.
  4. WxWatcher007
    That’s incredible. It’ll take a long time to recover.
  5. WxWatcher007
    Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it?
  6. WxWatcher007
    Some of the worst on record. I’m tired of it.
  7. WxWatcher007
    From Michael Lowry
  8. WxWatcher007
  9. WxWatcher007
    Maybe that system that tries to dive down into the Gulf tries, but I still stand by my August forecast that the season halts in October. You have to get something tangible to those climo favored regions to generate a TC and I don’t think that’s likely.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Disastah
  11. WxWatcher007
    2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph
  12. WxWatcher007
    With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.
  17. WxWatcher007
  18. WxWatcher007
    Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR
  20. WxWatcher007
  21. WxWatcher007
    The satellite improvement happened FAST
  22. WxWatcher007
    I have a non-chaser friend in Montego Bay. Right near the water. They are safe, but the first floor of their place was wrecked by the wind.
  23. WxWatcher007
    The collapse of FL winds and the central pressure rising 60mb says it all. At least for now. The 5pm discussion mentions that the intensity estimate was “highly uncertain”. I doubt the winds are that high looking at that first round of data but recon is finding it just as it exits Jamaica. IR is already improving so we’ll see what it can do the next ~8 hours. The core looks intact enough for a reorganization & intensification phase.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Recon is in there (only one flight from what I see) and it looks like the center weakened substantially based on initial data. 952.8mb extrapolated.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Landfall expected around 2am. Not a ton of time to reorganize and intensify, but we’ll see what recon finds.
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