WxWatcher007

Problem is the same stalled front is also the kicker. In my mind, the simplest setup is a tropical wave developing closer to the Antilles, getting pushed into hugging the Bahamas or moving just NE of there by a ridge, and getting captured. Again, CVs are exceptionally tricky. That's a lot of expanse to cross without getting recurved. It's easy to forget, but 1938 had a "high latitude" track...but ended up near the Bahamas. 90% of this subforum would be cancelling looking at how far north of the islands that track is. 1938 Bob Gloria Donna Carol 1944 @Quincy wrote about this years ago and it's still just as useful.

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear.

Now for the new... Tropical Overview 8/10/25 1. Invest 97L We're on the cusp of a true CV system developing, as 97L continues to organize just off the African Coast. It's still plenty disorganized, and is going to run into a cooler SST environment as it pops northwest (as posted above) but it's looking like one of the rare CVs set to develop in the basin. Ridging in the Atlantic will push this west, but how far west is TBD Ensembles more or less agree that this will got to the northeast of the Antilles, but from there we have significant divergence based on whether there are any troughs imparting a weakness on the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge. That's the key part to all of this, and it cannot be resolved at this range, though with each day we learn a little more. If I had to place a lean on it, I would say OTS or Atlantic Canada due to how much latitude it gains by 60W, but there's a long way to go. 2. Weak disturbance off FL Coast This is more of a curiosity for me than anything, but there's a weak disturbance that's currently ideally positioned off the west coast of Florida. Obviously, SSTs are boiling but that's not enough to pique my interest. The disturbance is parked under an anti-cyclone, which provides the benefit of 1) upper divergence that maintains deep convection and 2) very low shear The models don't do much with it, but if it had some time maybe it could become a little interesting? The big limiting factor is probably time, and the lack of a more robust surface reflection. Vorticity is modest, but that's not enough.

Figure it's time to look at this again to see what happened. 1. Invest 95L became Dexter, so that was a good call. 2. The follow up disturbance off the East Coast never materialized, and was probably one of the worst forecasts I've had. As for why it gave a head fake, I think a combination of shear and dry air (the opposite of what I expected) kept convection from organizing and even generating on a consistent basis. Awful, awful call. 3. The central Atlantic wave became 96L, but this call wasn't much better either. Simply put, MDR stability got it. It has been meandering for days in the open Atlantic, unable to generate consistent convection and organize. Not a good start.

True CVs (actual development near the Cabo Verde Islands) are no different from an HECS. The big dog potential shows up from time to time but you need everything to line up for that potential to materialize.

We are the San Diego of the east, and it has been that way for years now. No storms, no tropical, no snow. Just secondhand smoke and dews.

Beat me to it

There’s going to be windshield wipers too on the ensembles.

Pay attention to the super ensemble

Agree. It needs to be hugging or very near the Antilles.

Even though it’s looking back at 12z, the super ensemble is probably most useful tool right now. It also gives a good window into where predictability ends and weenie range begins.

Watch it via the vorticity tracker

There’s an eternity Seriously. Odds always favor OTS, but it’s too early to lock in any model or ensemble solution.

You could tell pretty early that the 12z Euro would be OTS. All just noise at this point. No model is going to nail the strength of ridges/troughs and the placement of weaknesses at this range.

Well we shall see if the prophet is right. Now designated as Invest 97L.

Good spin but as you can see from the size of the wave it is probably going to take a little time to consolidate.

With the steering pattern it’s worth a casual eye. That’s it. This is like tracking a HECS signal at D12. Sometimes they turn out real. Most times they don’t. Sometimes it snows in Pensacola.

Days and days of weenie runs at fantasy range

Talk about a heater. Basically two islands in the gigantic expanse of the Atlantic basin getting all the hits. It’s worse than Moose Glute, ME getting all the snow.

Idub is that you?

Think of our Atlantic Canada friends!

This might be one of the very worst forecasts I’ve ever attempted

Yeah that's exactly it. The op models are always good for drama, but the ensembles are where it's at long range if one is really trying to analyze. The signal for something getting to the SW Atlantic is there IMO, but who knows about beyond that. The failed low off the SE coast is a prime example of this. Models kept driving it into the Carolina coast because they saw it being trapped under a ridge...until the guidance recognized a weakness that wasn't previously analyzed.

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though.

Just remember that with time, errors on computer guidance increase exponentially. So at the very early stages like now when there’s no low level center and no vertically stacked system it’s going to be exceptionally hard for models or even ensembles to nail a long range forecast—anything beyond about 7 days imo.