WxWatcher007

Just pointing out the potential. Atlantic Canada has been on an exceptional run of hits from recurving TCs. I'm not sure historic is the word, but it would be very hard to do given where we are now. Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada.

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

I was a little surprised by that given the op but clearly some other members put Atlantic Canada in play (for this run)

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

Yes. That massive trough the Euro is toying with will kick this if that materializes (and it’s unclear if it will to that extent)

I think a direct U.S. impact is increasingly unlikely, but not fully closed. Worth a closer in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada imo.

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes).

Just a monster. I mean look at this. 12z And 00z Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..

Sad to hear that but congrats on grad school! I still kick around the idea of going back for a met degree but I think that ship has sailed. Maybe some sort of a certificate though to enhance my forecasting knowledge.

Let’s get the pick ‘em going!

Yes, folks here are always too quick to cancel, but we gotta be honest—you would need a lot to happen to make this a bona fide EC threat that this point. You will see this on ensembles—which are the better option for analysis—but I’m using the op because it’s easier to see. The troughing signal to our west is obviously important to having any chance but it’s poorly timed, poorly positioned, and too slow to cut off. That can change at this range but that’s a secondary issue. The first and most fundamental issue is that the weakness in Atlantic ridging is happening way way way too early. It’s basically turning near Bermuda. That weakness isn’t out in weenie range. And while to Pope’s point it can change (and I think the GFS is too early with the weakness), whenever you’re asking a lot of the steering conditions in tropical, it usually doesn’t work out. So while it’s not over technically, the odds of a U.S. hit are looking increasingly small imo. Last thing I’ll say though is that even with the super ensemble the longer range members tend to be underdispursive. If that troughing in the eastern US is real I’d watch in Atlantic Canada. They’ve actually done exceptionally well with these kind of setups in recent years.

I mean...that's a TC to me. SHIPS has continued to get more aggressive with development, and now has this becoming our first major hurricane of the year in a few days when it reaches a more favorable environment. 97L is getting an upper level assist from a passing CCKW, but heat content and SSTs will significantly improve further west. That said, note the drier air ahead of it though. It may impact its ability to intensify despite its current IR display.

The next time Wiz complains about every swirl getting named by the NHC I'll just show him this. IR, surface obs, and sat wind estimates have had this a TC for a good portion of the day.

I really like using a “super ensemble” to visualize what’s being modeled, and Tomer has a great site that shows the trend over time.

Great Lakes low torches the mid levels. 35 and pouring rain.

Keep the troughs away so we can get some tropical

High of 91 here at home

It’s a small contingent fortunately.

That’s a TC to me but maybe the NHC pulls the trigger at 11…

That latest convective burst may be enough to put it over the top.

Now those definitely produce.

The folks that like tracking modeled snowstorms more than watching actual snow falling should enjoy this

CVs are the worst. Give me homebrew any day.

I mean we're talking about something beyond 10 days out. I hope people aren't taking it seriously

Euro is going to be very close as 97L misses the initial trough (again about 7-8 days out) and Atlantic ridging builds back in.