WxWatcher007

May has arrived and preseason is here! That means it's time for the legacy thread. The Atlantic has been exceptionally busy since 2017, but it has thrown several curveballs over that period that has led to unexpected outcomes in the basin. Last year, after the earliest category 5 hurricane on record, we saw a historically quiet start to the climatological peak of the season, followed by a historically active back loaded season. This year, we do not have the same warmth and depth across the basin as 2024, but with a neutral to cool neutral ENSO likely--which would facilitate periods of low wind shear, a cooling Pacific, and still warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, another average to above average season is likely IMO. However, a major thing to watch is the cooler SST distribution in the tropical Atlantic which may not only temper the ceiling in that part of the basin, but also potentially continue the dramatic stability issues we've seen this decade. Last year, I was in Texas for Beryl, Louisiana for Francine, and Florida for Helene. The Gulf has been ground zero since 2017. We'll see if that continues this year. Beryl was the first storm where I had my window blown in Francine nudged east at the last minute and I missed the worst. Still a solid storm. Helene was the real deal. With 2024 in the books, I've now completed 16 tropical chases.

Fall Summer Spring Winter A great winter can move up, but fall is tremendous no matter the year and summer is hard to beat because of the daylight.

You are something else.

Those icons are

Hopefully some action that’s close enough to chase this season. Already starting to think about another Midwest trip next year.

@Damage In Tolland I think you’re going to be right here in the valley. We’re already leafing out this week.

It’s pretty incredible how our regional location contributes to the ecological and climatological conditions to mitigate widespread extreme weather.

I have to imagine that we do eventually. Those seasons that we cut our teeth in during the late 90s are much closer to normal overall than what we see now. The expanse of ++SST probably goes a long way to these late seasons. Sorry you disagree I also lean cool neutral, which is plenty in its own right to keep shear at bay and lead to an AN season. These are a bit dated, but you can see the impact of a weak Nino (unlikely here) with even warm neutral. I don’t have the Nina/cool neutral graphics but you can see how much the impact ENSO has. My main “concern” for the season isn’t ENSO or shear though. We’re used to a boiling MDR but we do not have that heading into “preseason”. IMO, the SSTa in the tropical Atlantic lends itself to reinforcing the enormous stability issues we’ve had this decade. How expansive this becomes is TBD, and as we’ve seen, it hasn’t made any recent seasons BN. But I do think it’s something to monitor.

I am legitimately overjoyed to be on the cusp of extended warmth and sun.

Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo.

Beautiful! Spring is here! Being off the devices and outside is good for the soul. I’ve been more or less off the site for months and I’ve loved it. Kinda wish I knew what happened though.

Another F here, but we’re on to spring. Great graphics as always. I know that’s a lot of work.

Thank God. High of 86.6°. Totally fine with this being a one day shot across the bow. Climo norms are rising quickly and this can be a fantastic time of year before the heat arrives in force. Fortunately for ya it’s a one day hit. Anomalous stuff…just like waking up to measurable snow imby a week ago with a high of 39.1°. Out of place but plenty possible. I love the variety.

Tropical?

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4. If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

My 19” snow season says otherwise At least with severe, you know the climo sucks.

It’s not surprising to see SSTs come down in the tropical Atlantic given how historically high they’ve been, but there’s still plenty of warmth in the western Atlantic. OHC though is pretty solid in the Caribbean, and even just east of the Antilles (and note the loop current in the Gulf). As long as ENSO doesn’t lean Nino which seems unlikely, another active season is likely, even if not as historically active as recent years in raw numbers.

I measured .5” this weekend. 100%. Time for real spring.

Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May.

I am summoned!

It’s April. Winter had its chance DJFM and it failed miserably, per usual the last decade. Here in the hinterlands of the south, let it rain. I can see wanting to hang on as long as possible up there but it’s beyond useless imby.

I pop in just to see what’s going on and no surprise the same characters are still tracking ghosts god love ‘em.

70° on the nose. First of the year, thank God.

It’s still early, but I haven’t really seen much to change my thought that this season will “cool” to something closer to normal.