WxWatcher007

I don't want to get too ahead of my skis, but the EPS and GEFS have been gradually showing the basin opening back up between 92L, the wave behind it, and perhaps some subtropical/tropical development in the homebrew region.

Models are quite robust once 92L gets north of the islands.

It’s just so devoid of central deep convection though. If the center was tucked under the convection it’d be a different story. Same impacts at the end of the day.

Not tropical but plenty of impacts

I think the tropical Atlantic will continue to be a loss for activity, but I’ll want to see if waves survive the trek into the Caribbean and SW Atlantic after 9/20 or if the basin is just relying on CAG potential and stalled fronts. It’s easy to be prisoner of the moment, but the run up to the peak last year was historically inactive too…until the lid over the basin blew off.

Halfway through September, things have gone about as I expected, though I did not foresee the relentless wave breaking that has reinforced stability and wind shear in the basin. I didn't expect things to pick up until around the 20th, and it looks like that is on track with the newest cherry increasingly likely to break the drought later in the week. After that however, it's pretty unclear how the season will progress. It looks like the tropical Atlantic is a dud, but as climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew region, I do think the lid will come off.

Maybe, but keep in mind that these large scale oscillations have a far reaching impact that go beyond SSTs. The atmospheric changes that provide cooling to the basin also impact things like steering patterns and shear. But with all that being equal, if you have large scale warming of the whole basin you'd still end up with what we've had going on this decade--stability issues across the basin and especially in the tropical Atlantic. You need contrasts between the MDR and subtropics to generate the instability necessary to keep waves convectively active.

The Atlantic has been exceptionally quiet for a second consecutive September, but it looks as if the basin is trying to wake back up with a robust tropical wave heading through the tropical Atlantic. The wave, focused near 30W, is most likely still a few days away from consolidating and kicking off the process of tropical genesis, but with a strong model signal from operational/ensemble/AI models, and the wave producing much more convection than the failed development of 91L, this one looks like it will become a TC eventually. There are still some headwinds, figuratively and literally. In the image above you can see stable air to the northwest of the wave. Further west, there is wind shear evident with what little convection being blown over. Long term though, once this wave is able to consolidate, it will have a chance to intensify. Long way away from that however.

There should be some rain but I am still a bit skeptical of whether the heavier rain gets into the DC area given the gradient and potential track of the low.

We’re on to 2026.

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today.

We uninstalled. Could’ve done it a week ago.

So far so good with my peak season forecast…

Flatlined as expected after Erin. What’s really interesting though is that this has been a multi-year global trend. The basins have struggled. WPAC in particular.

Low of 45.6°

That’s a truly unacceptable loss

Yep…just one factor. I don’t think 2025 for my period of expected activity is quite as favorable as 2024.

1.80 3 day total

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Development of this system is not expected while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Some of my best shots have come from positions I was just playing around with, but here’s a more traditional shot.

Nammy did good...Nammy did good.

Meh.

To be clear 91L still has a chance. I’m more skeptical about a CAG especially mid month. That’s outside of climatology as @GaWx has noted. Late month and especially into October is prime time for that though. Anyone thinking we’re in for a quiet season because of conditions currently should look at what was posted earlier. This decade especially has been known for strongly backloaded seasons.

Good point—there was also a pretty big fail on genesis with Fernand.