WxWatcher007

I think we need to wait and see the totality of damage reports to know the true scale of Milton’s impact, but there’s no question that Helene’s was one of the worst in U.S. history. Of course, there’s no competition…especially to families that lost everything or someone in either storm.

If @ineedsnow made it to Lakeland he’s getting a hell of a show. Gusting to hurricane force there. Could go even higher in the coming hours.

Real impressive stuff. I hope inland folks are prepared.

Daytona Beach gusting to 76 mph. Going to be a long night across the region.

It’s one of those things where multiple data points will confirm the intensity of a storm, for the reasons stated above. Here’s one good data point.

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Since the previous advisory, a small eye feature has started appearing on geostationary infrared imagery with Leslie, surrounded by a ring of very cold (below -70 C) cloud top temperatures. This structure is also supported by an earlier SAR-RCM2 pass that showed a tight inner core with a radius of maximum wind that had contracted from yesterday. 00 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90-kt and T5.5/102-kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates were somewhat lower, between 79-86 kt, and blending the data results in a 90 kt intensity this cycle. A Saildrone (SD-1036) appears to be near the path of Leslie, and is currently reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds that are quickly increasing about 50 n mi northwest of the center. As noted previously, another saildrone (SD-1040) indicated that sea-surface temperatures near Leslie are warmer than expected, near 29 C. At the same time, the hurricane is in a very narrow region of low vertical wind shear that should persist for another 6-12 h. While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h. Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning. However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L, will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening. Those same hurricane-regional models show Leslie weakening below hurricane intensity in 36 h, and that rapid weakening continues to be reflected in the latest intensity forecast. While sheared puffs of deep convection may continue for a subsequent day or two, eventually Leslie is likely to lose the necessary convective organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie becoming post-tropical by the end of the weekend, though this could occur sooner than forecast given the proximity of very dry environmental air and high shear affecting the system. Leslie continues to move northwestward, estimated at 315/7 kt this evening. The track forecast is more straightforward, with Leslie rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge to its east, resulting in a gradual turn northward and then northeastward over the forecast period. With that said, there has been a notable westward and poleward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was moved in that direction, but not as far as the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

I’ll tell you what—the stuff that has developed has really popped. Leslie is thriving in advance of the coming shear. Thanks @Windspeed for pointing it out. Clearing out an eye in the central Atlantic after being written off.

GO LESLIE GO

Might be even worse on the backside/sting jet

Rainfall totals so far

Hope everything works out for them.

If anything the rainfall threat around the northern part of the peninsula will be increasing as Milton traverses the region and continues through its extra tropical evolution—as @CoastalWx said earlier. Edit: adding WPC discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1100&yr=2024

Yes, still quite impactful along much of the west coast of Florida. Sending my best to everyone in the region tonight.

Definitely.

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed. Yeah…I know. Just wanted to be…hopeful.

I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak.

I think the landfall point zone has now narrowed between Clearwater and Sarasota, but this northerly tick after the completion of the ERC is why I cautioned against the urge to lock in a spot too soon. Even a quick turn into Sarasota is looking increasingly dicey (read: unlikely). To be clear, I’m only talking landfall point. With the larger eye now much of that zone I highlighted could still get eyewall.

For those looking for water rise information

I think it’s a wobble right now. I’m still waiting to see what happens as the ERC ends. I think the landfall goalposts are now between Sarasota and Clearwater. Crude circles but the point is all the same—if we’re just contracting so the inner eyewall is dominant, a further ENE motion seems likely to me. If the inner eyewall collapses into the larger outer eyewall/curved band, that broadens impacts and makes it more likely Tampa north gets into the eyewall. It’s still an extremely close call. It’s also still moving quickly. It’s unclear when the slowdown and turn will occur.

Maybe that 51 number was for newly identified couplets and not a continuation of a prior warning? Just wondering where the discrepancy is.

51 total today per TWC

Latest VDM reports 944mb and the following: 1/3 CLOSED INNER EYEWALL BAND 14NM DIAM, 1/3 CLOSED OUTER EYE BAND 26NM DIAM

Currently 2 PDS tornado warnings in central FL. What a tornado day.

It stops short of the present frame, which still shows the inner eyewall trying to hang on.

Someone asked so let’s take a look at radar. Three things stand out to me: 1) There’s a legitimate tornado outbreak that’s ongoing across the peninsula. Some of these have had very strong couplets. This will continue so even inland folks need to be vigilant. 2) The ERC at least on radar looks nearly complete. As you can see that’s leading to a much larger core. That’s important for who gets the eyewall and perhaps intensity heading into final approach. 3) The landfall zone is narrowing on the models but more importantly narrowing on radar. Do not let your guard down slightly north of Tampa or slightly south of Sarasota. As the landfall zone narrows, it’s still critical to pay attention to long term motion, but every wobble becomes increasingly important. Watch to see if the heading slightly shows its cards after the ERC completes.