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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    @GaWx now have a lemon on the FL east coast. That one has a good chance to get a name if it can stay tropical. Everything spinning is becoming a TC in the basin right now.
  2. WxWatcher007
  3. WxWatcher007
    There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma.
  4. WxWatcher007
    Zero doubt in my mind that it’s continuing to intensify. Whether the next recon flight confirms that…idk. This is remarkable.
  5. WxWatcher007
    This will be the storm of record for Tampa.
  6. WxWatcher007
    An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eye
  7. WxWatcher007
    They did a phenomenal job getting so many passes in.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Reminder that SFMR are not being used operationally by the NHC for the rest of the season.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Given the warming of the eye, the pinhole nature, and recon data, this is continuing to rapidly intensify. With no end in sight yet. Extraordinary.
  10. WxWatcher007
    I thought I was being reasonable last night with a peak of 160/919. We’re going to blow well past that.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Extrapolated 914.4mb
  12. WxWatcher007
    It’s amazing how jet interactions have helped a number of our hurricanes this season.
  13. WxWatcher007
    65mph/991mb yesterday at 11am
  14. WxWatcher007
  15. WxWatcher007
    Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH)
  16. WxWatcher007
    Saying nothing of what happens from here, this is a tremendous victory for intensity modeling and the HAFS. The NHC telegraphed this was possible before RI even took place and that’s in large part due to the incredible advances in intensity modeling. Yes, it happened faster than anticipated, but it wasn’t a surprise.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Milton is now the second category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
  18. WxWatcher007
    Looks like recon is circling now just shy of the center.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, it does look like an ERC could start but probably not before a little more intensification.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Closing in on a SW to NE pass.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Agree with Normandy. I don’t think it changes anything materially.
  22. WxWatcher007
    I think there’s still enormous value in looking at ensembles, and I think that’s why we’re seeing slight north ticks from the NHC. It’s also important to highlight that the ensembles continue to show northward sensitivity to a stronger storm. Given where we are right now with the structure and intensity of Milton, I’d lean north of Tampa at this time. Obviously still time for things to change.
  23. WxWatcher007
    At this range, I just want to see that there’s a visible seedling and generally favorable upper level steering pattern for a northward track. It looks like both boxes are tentatively checked, but of course all that can change.
  24. WxWatcher007
    3rd all time with an 80kt intensity increase in 24 hours per the NHC (Wilma & Felix)
  25. WxWatcher007
    The Yucatan coastline.
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