WxWatcher007

It’s astounding how that works

I must be getting downsloped because precipitation just evaporates over me lol

A paltry .22” here today.

Give me as much juice as possible. Today has been kind of a “bust” imby. Typical. That said, I’m still at 1.23” since Friday. Some PWS in SE CT over 2” today.

What’s the statewide record there?

Yeah. Tough forecasting specifics in any one location.

Ha, beat me to it. Here’s a thread looking at the environmental conditions forecast. It’s not gospel, obviously, but it’s another piece of the puzzle.

You can read about meteorological features, but it’s fascinating to see it all play out in realtime. Do you think some of those high end QPF depictions the next few days have a chance of verifying? I lean toward the Euro being more right than not, though I think it’s running a little hot. It’s not alone though.

Somebody down here might get smoked. I’m at .98” since Friday.

New England “severe”.

Namny had this line in western CT too. Pretty potent look.

Yeah, looked straight line to me.

I’m not sure it can stay discrete, but the non warned cell near Newburgh could get interesting if it does.

Maybe some debris too?

Would be good to get on the board today

This is awesome, thanks.

Where can I get this map?

My kind of day—no morning debris lol

Wiz just fell to his knees in a McDonald’s

Yeah it’s doable, but it’s hard stuff. Terrain and chase infrastructure are horrible. It’s more risky to chase out here than the Midwest. More open spaces like NY can be good though if you’re in the right spot.

I think this is it. Too far north and you’re dealing with cooler SSTs and inherently more stable/dry air due to proximity to the Sahara and subtropics. IMO there were robust waves coming off too far north that reinforced SAL during the climatological peak for SAL, and stability even as SAL declined. The further south waves fared much better, especially after SAL pushes weren’t as potent in the tropical Atlantic. I think that can be much less pronounced this season during peak, but I don’t know.

Can already hear thunder

Some opening thoughts.

Just going to make some blanket comments here. It's indisputable that there are numerous factors that determine whether a season is active or not. SSTs and OHC are just one piece of the puzzle and I think @cptcatz is right that they're often leaned on too much, but they are still a significant piece. SSTs should warm up some, as mentioned by the discussion earlier. That's not really where my caution flag lies. For me it's not just the tropical Atlantic SSTs that are important, the subtropics as well. This distribution has me concerned that the stability issues we've seen this decade will persist into the 2025 season. Now, that hasn't proven to stop the exceptional stretch of activity we've seen since 2017, but it's something to pay attention to considering possibly less ideal atmospheric conditions this season with the lack of a full blown Nina. We only need to look at last season and the historic lid that was placed on the entire basin due to SAL and systemic stability reinforced by an active AEW train as an extreme example of what can happen. Is there anyone willing to say right now that 60W to 20W won't have at least some problems with SAL and stability? There are still open questions about the WAM, how much the Pacific cools, and the actual ENSO that controls this summer/fall. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to throw up caution flags, even while leaning toward another above normal season. I don't think that's "mainstream" or whatever, it's looking at the evidence right in front of us. @jconsor, agree that the S&P forecast is interesting, though I am still skeptical of those kind of LR forecasts and their skill. Doesn't mean the science isn't being pushed forward though, which would be awesome to see. I do agree that we probably have a higher than normal likelihood for an active landfall season, but I'm not willing to paint landfall zones because idk if the skill is truly there outside of a month at most. @GaWx, I don't think we need SSTs to approach the last two years for a higher end NS season, but I do think we need an expansive region of high OHC for this year to produce higher end H and MH numbers. That's there, though not nearly to the extent of the prior two years.

May has arrived and preseason is here! That means it's time for the legacy thread. The Atlantic has been exceptionally busy since 2017, but it has thrown several curveballs over that period that has led to unexpected outcomes in the basin. Last year, after the earliest category 5 hurricane on record, we saw a historically quiet start to the climatological peak of the season, followed by a historically active back loaded season. This year, we do not have the same warmth and depth across the basin as 2024, but with a neutral to cool neutral ENSO likely--which would facilitate periods of low wind shear, a cooling Pacific, and still warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, another average to above average season is likely IMO. However, a major thing to watch is the cooler SST distribution in the tropical Atlantic which may not only temper the ceiling in that part of the basin, but also potentially continue the dramatic stability issues we've seen this decade. Last year, I was in Texas for Beryl, Louisiana for Francine, and Florida for Helene. The Gulf has been ground zero since 2017. We'll see if that continues this year. Beryl was the first storm where I had my window blown in Francine nudged east at the last minute and I missed the worst. Still a solid storm. Helene was the real deal. With 2024 in the books, I've now completed 16 tropical chases.