WxWatcher007

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago. If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting.

Solar is awesome. Barely a bill year round.

Foggy start here in the valley

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page

New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year

Heat wave achieved here. High of 91.8° so far.

Let him go…you can’t save him

I’m not sure it makes a difference at the end of the day with the Atlantic ridge being weakened.

Never to be found in winter

Forgetting Atlantic Canada lol. There’s a 948mb over St. John’s. Is Nick still up there?

Headlong into it

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol.

Continuing to move south of forecast

That's a lot ot get rid of lol

The maritimes have been on a generational run. Seriously.

It’s underdispursive but you get the picture.

I know tropical is an imby sport to most here, but some do forget that we have Atlantic Canada posters too. While the pattern isn’t conducive for the EC, the maritimes have more wiggle room and NS and especially Newfoundland are still squarely in watch territory right now. The exact parabolic curve matters to them.

I mean…this says it all.

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking.

The trend today has been a further south track and that seems more plausible given the convective trend tonight with Erin but generally agree. Still a long way to go.

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

Yes. That massive trough the Euro is toying with will kick this if that materializes (and it’s unclear if it will to that extent)

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes).

Just a monster. I mean look at this. 12z And 00z Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..