WxWatcher007

I think there will be some of course whenever this undergoes (another) ERC, but I never fully bought into substantial weakening in the hours before landfall for reasons I mentioned last night.

Milton takes everyone’s attention right now, but the follow up signal in the western Caribbean that the GFS has had is getting a little more EPS support each day. The lid has been blown off and something is going to need to put it back on to stop the train of nukes.

Thanks to the mod that changed the title. I was too busy looking at recon’s jaw dropping data.

Towers going up on the northern edge of the eye.

That GFS run is also quite impactful for coastal GA and part of SC. A lot of rain and strong onshore flow.

Yeah, remote sensing and in situ recon data all point to Milton being in the initial stage of rapid intensification that will most like go uninterrupted barring any structural changes. Any call on lowest pressure? I could see a 40-50 mb drop occurring by tomorrow night. Perhaps we can't rule out an even lower drop before outer banding begins to intensify and influence the core. I'm going to say 928 mb is not unrealistic by tomorrow evening. Given the structure, size, and extremely favorable environment ahead, I’ll guess it peaks around 160mph/919mb. That is not my projected landfall intensity but it’s problematic because it’ll almost certainly trigger an ERC that expands the size of the hurricane—making both wind and surge risk worse.

@Moderately Unstable

I’ve noticed it, but I’m a little skeptical something tropical gets going before conditions become more unfavorable. That said, given where we are with this peak—anything spinning has a chance right now.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (H)

And from experience, those 10-20 miles may not be known until hours before landfall. That’s why it’s so important for everyone to be prepared along the potential landfall zone.

989mb with a closed eye and peak FL winds of 75kts on the VDM. I think that’s enough for an upgrade assuming the NE side is stronger but we’ll see.

Recon just passed an area of FL winds between 65-75kts. Hasn’t reached the center yet but should have data in the next ten minutes.

Recon looks like its first pass will be from SE to NW. I kind of expect this to be near hurricane intensity given the satellite and earlier recon trends we saw but we’ll see.

The lid is off and as long as it is we should pay closer attention to any seedling in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.

I’m still far from sold, but the GFS has done well sniffing out CAG/western Caribbean stuff and it would continue the theme of the lid being off. There is a little EPS support from what I saw too this morning.

Latest recon is en route and should be in the storm soon.

The final VDM of the recon mission reports a circular eye that’s open in the SW. Diameter of 20nm.

Low of 40.1° here in EH.

48 hours for a watch and 36 hours for a warning. They do issue inland watches/warnings. For Helene there were TS warnings all the way to western NC. Don’t know when Orlando was last under a hurricane warning but given the current track forecast it looks like this could be a hurricane across the peninsula. Watches are likely at some point today since TS conditions are likely by Tuesday.

For our FL crew.

Fantasy for now.

That kind of structure tends to foreshadow more significant to rapid intensification, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. You do still need deep convection over the center and wrapping around to build a true inner core. It’s not a linear process, and as we see time and again the organizational phase often happens in fits and starts. Recon tomorrow will give us a much better sense of how organized it is and critically, more detail on the environment around the system. Night, everyone.