WxWatcher007

Funny thing is even with the rain I feel skunked. I’ve become a poor man’s TBlizz

Gets pushed NNE for a while. Berg saves the trees on his property that were never in danger while Halifax get inundated.

What an eye developing on Lee.

Because you get a better forecast utilizing all of the guidance. Hurricane models can be great at intensity and structural changes, but more prone to swings on track. Globals are often off on intensity but can be great with track. Spaghetti models can be solid, but I wouldn’t rely on them solely. When you read the NHC discussions, they’re looking at everything and accounting for the various model biases/outliers.

Margot now a hurricane. Not expected to become a major… WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (4) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H)

That’s the only guarantee. The track is not locked. West or east. Also—it ain’t what it used to be. You hate to see it.

Agree

3.99” of rain the last four days. About to top 4 after this line moves through.

That’s at 850mb though. Looking at sim radar and 10m the wind field is large but weakening. A more westward heading though if that continued would probably get decent wind inland. Just not sure we get a deep westward bend.

Pretty good chance of AN ACE this season given where we are now.

I know. All in good fun.

You’re too much I’m sure Team Hit is hoping for you to meh this until the center passes just west of your house.

At least with tropical you always know you’re out. With winter everyone endures misses and misery, week after week after week.

We barely even get rain back here verbatim.

It’s not going to happen so I don’t think it matters as much now. The earlier turn is kind of baked into the models. Like @ORH_wxman said the other day, get this 100-150 miles west and it’s a lot more impactful/interesting. Not sure if that happens, though.

With guidance coalescing around the closest approach of Lee occurring in 5-6 days, it's time for a breakout thread. This all started with an extraordinarily strong signal for a long track major hurricane that produced, leading to the development of a CV system that attained category five intensity briefly before shear and internal processes (ERCs) weakened the system. Lee regained major hurricane status, but has likely peaked. We've been tracking this one seemingly forever, and it is now starting to slow its forward speed as it rounds the periphery of a ridge and gets drawn northward due to an incoming trough. Normally, a turn northward at this longitude would almost certainly have meant a recurve out to sea, but guidance has gradually trended toward a scenario where the original trough above lifts out quickly, allowing for an Atlantic ridge to build back in and effectively block a clear path out to sea. As that happens, another trough swings in from the Midwest, drawing it further north or potentially on a NW/NNW heading rather than kicking it OTS. Recent operational runs, which are further west than their ensembles, have brought a close approach to the Cape and potential landfall, if not already transitioned to an extratropical system, into Maine or Nova Scotia. Because Lee is expected to increase its wind field as it turns northward, and as it begins to undergo extratropical transition, even a close approach can be impactful, particularly for the Cape and eastern New England. There remains uncertainty on the exact track and the intensity of Lee when in closest proximity. For those following, I have been putting out odds for a while now on Lee's future track. This morning I'm at the following: 50% LF risk Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia): It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading and Lee will not be able to fully escape, even if there is a last minute east trend. 35% New England (5% SNE/30% ENE): ENE remains much more favored because the ensembles even as they tick west have not meaningfully put SNE at landfall risk. A scrape of the Cape or hit in Maine would be most likely currently IMO. 15% OTS: Respect still needs to be given to sharper than anticipated eastward shifts, but this looks increasingly unlikely. Regardless of what Lee does, we already know how this thread will flow. Team Meh and Team Hit shall battle. Let the crescendo of the roller coaster ride begin.

Writing an OP for a Lee thread now.

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

That may just keep this from a second cat 4 peak and allow for the wind field to expand even more than it already has. Going to be a very large storm as it moves northward.

Roller coaster is a great way to put it. You literally know how the ride will go before hopping on, and despite how much it makes you want to scream or puke you can't get off until you run out of track. Weenie posts! Meh posts! Fear! Excitement! Morality debate! Dopamine drips or saline solution at every turn!

Gotta imagine some troughing would get that one, but here we are on the cusp of something with Lee.

That’s going to be hard to top any year. Would probably need a further west track and more ET transition to maintain some semblance of a core? Cape would be in for a lashing though.

Like I said. Team Meh & Team Hit.