WxWatcher007

Absolutely.

Just as I'm skeptical of hitting 100 on any given day because any random thing can screw it up, I'm also skeptical of models wanting to blow a sea breeze all the way to Meriden lol. I think there will be some breeze along the coast, especially SE CT, but I doubt it gets terribly far inland. I have been most cautious on believing we maximize potential with this heat wave, but I think I'm on board now. This looks like it could be the real deal. It's 100 or bust, and if we can get two consecutive days that'd put us in rarified air. At least here in central CT. Even if we can't get a 100/62 heat indices are likely to be impressive. We better not fumble at the 1yd line

Pretty steep temp rise here this morning--11 degrees in two hours. Should be a nice day.

Holding onto losing daylight Because what’s more exciting in late June than the nostalgia of darkness at 4pm and breathlessly waiting for the Euro to show snowstorms in Pensacola and the GFS hammering us with perfect track rainers. The adrenaline rush of watching previously unmodeled scooter streaks blow apart a D5 blizzard. The overwhelming joy of watching lows deamplifying on guidance every 6 hours. Sorry, I forgot the daily 1.5” of upslope in Raccoon Rabies, Vermont. How wonderful.

Summer’s officially here! Make the most of it, folks.

It was a phenomenal evening. Spent most of the afternoon/evening in ORH with some friends.

Beautiful morning. I’m still soft selling the Euro but I’m getting more intrigued.

Yeah—I’m just talking about 100° in June. That seems far more rare. I only see 1952 and 1964 on NOWData. There was a 99° on 5/26/2010 from what I see. Assuming something doesn’t muck it up, next week looks pretty anomalous for this time of year.

The only time I can find BDL hitting 100° in June is 6/30/64. Would be impressive if it happens next week.

High of 90.3° at home

DC smoked by a bow and confirmed tor heading toward Philly.

This seems like a nowcast day. Models are all over the place on both initiation and coverage of convection.

What interesting SNE wx actually produces these days? We’re a poor man’s San Diego.

120mph/953mb

Now those are beautiful

64kt or bust

New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow. A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well behind with the majority of convection developing along a pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time.

The VIL on that severe warned storm is big time

I’d come down to chase!

Extrapolated pressure now at 972.5mb, with FL peak of 93kt and SFMR of 88kt. Not bad.

Will posting pictures of an EF-3 tearing through town while Kev smokes cirrus.

I’m stirring the pot but yeah, I do think we could see an ENH kind of day tomorrow in part of New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

For the weenies among us

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 15:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: ErickStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2025 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 15:23:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.05N 95.98WB. Center Fix Location: 156 statute miles (252 km) to the SSW (199°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,915m (9,564ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 8kts (From the NW at 9mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 15:20:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 239° at 59kts (From the WSW at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) of center fix at 15:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNW (329°) of center fix at 15:26:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 50° at 76kts (From the NE at 87.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 15:26:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 0°C (32°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) from the flight level center at 15:26:30Z