WxWatcher007

No change in my thoughts on track this morning.

Easiest bet all weekend.

Nice storm here right now

“can’t take care of his own mother” Just another level

This, 100%. Let’s see what 00z does

A lot of thunder for .09” of rain today. Hopefully the glorified nor’easter can deliver the goods next week.

Not yet.

0.00”

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet.

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table.

There’s that but the trough at 144 pulls out quickly and the one behind it is far more favorable for a slingshot north. I’d still keep the odds at what I had the other day. A lot of moving pieces and the euro is on its own after a really big run to run shift.

I’d need to see this on the ensembles a few days before buying. With the other guidance shifting west.

900 mile shift in one run? We toss. For now. Models did this with Franklin too.

lol euro

Model ain’t what it used to be

What the hell is the Euro doing? It was missing Newfoundland at 00z

Nino ENSO also tends to favor MDR recurves. It’s not a surprise, other than it was a good synoptic pattern with a storm going north too far east. This is a very different conversation of this got to 75W but we deal in reality not what ifs.

Not really a believer in that one being a contender. They’ll be a weakness somewhere. Homebrew or bust.

I’m not sure they would have fully rebounded given the track and intensity of Franklin, but I agree that where the upwelling happens matters. Gulf and Caribbean always cook.

Latest VDM. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:10ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 8Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:44:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.36N 58.74WB. Center Fix Location: 497 statute miles (799 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the eastG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 82kts (From the S at 94.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 106kts (122.0mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 16:47:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 38° at 94kts (From the NE at 108.2mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 16:48:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) from the flight level center at 15:06:00Z

I’m being sensitive. I want all analysis all the time for tropical and that’s not how this site works for any type of wx, especially when there’s really nothing new to discuss. Even with new model runs, nothing has really changed much. It’s obviously in a significantly degraded form compared to being a cat 5, but I think recon today shows that Lee has been more resilient than IR would generally suggest. I think it’ll intensify again should shear abate some, and I think the shear will.

It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen.

This place is so dumb lol That place is dumber

Nah, borderline 3 based on recon. Elliptical eye.

Much better appearance on IR. Outflow reestablished, deep convection over a more symmetrical center, strong rotation around the center with a lightning burst.