WxWatcher007

Really throws a lot of moisture into the region. The ICON (which has gained some respect from me in its handling of Beryl and Francine) is further north in the low track and quite wet as well.

High resolution models like the NAM and HRRR aren’t designed for potential tropical entities. I’d lean on global models and ensembles.

Wrapping up Francine. It’s still wild to me that I chase. There’s really nothing like it.

I can’t stand y’all

It always is if folks are looking for 1938. But if you’re just looking for activity near the US, the pattern doesn’t look terrible. There may be a CAG signal starting to show for late month in the western Caribbean as well. This is a homebrew season I guess.

Yep, maybe a CAG signal there. I think this is a ripe pattern for something along the eastern Gulf or East Coast.

I think there’s still a lot to be ironed out with this one, so even a model consensus right now could shift depending on where the low forms. There’s not a tangible low yet but that should change by tonight as the boundary is now offshore and firing scattered convection.

Even though we’re relatively close in, I’d still use the ensembles to a degree. There’s still a lot of spread along the coast, even up to the Mid-Atlantic. Not any real strong members at this time. It will be interesting though to see if the GFS is a little stronger at 00z. I think the Euro is playing catch up again.

It’s why I like the homebrew region so much. CVs can be pretty and all but if you want impacts, give me something much further west. Maybe nothing comes of it but one of the reasons why I’m intrigued by the general pattern we’ve had in the east and off the east coast recently is because if something pops it doesn’t look like a cut and dry OTS pattern. But something has to form…

I guess any little bit would help

Started a thread in the main forum but sharing here. MA impacts are possible so definitely worth some conversation. How’s the drought since Debby’s rains?

Although we do not have an established low pressure yet, the NHC is designating the area off the southeast coast an orange with 40% odds of development. Given how quickly the timeline for development could be, I think it’s worth separating out the discussion. 1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Those following know that I’ve been talking about the southeast coast since late August. I view this latest homebrew development as part of a broader window that has been open since early September—a window open due to repeated troughing in the east that has left stalled and quasi-stalled frontal boundaries off the coast. We saw it with 99L, which did not develop but brought rain and wind to Nova Scotia as an unusually strong late summer extratropical (read: baroclinic) low. We then had a follow up wave after 99L that quickly moved OTS. Now we’re looking at another stalled boundary off the coast and a non-tropical low (or two) that looks increasingly likely to develop along the boundary. The one we care about looks to develop off the Carolina coast. Again it’s non-tropical at the start but as the boundary decays it’s possible the low acquires tropical characteristics or becomes subtropical. The model signal has ebbed and flowed, but has come back today—and unlike 99L I think this has a better chance. 1) Unlike 99L, this is likely forming further south and west than 99L, in a more tropical environment. 2) With ridging likely to build over the top and some troughing to the west, this is likely to be steered into the US. Now, we’re not talking about a major hurricane or anything like that, especially with shear possible nearby, but strong winds and coastal flooding seem likely. We’ll have to watch for intensity trends this weekend.

I’ve been talking about the window for development off the SE coast since late August. 99L was the first manifestation of that window. The window has stayed open despite the oscillating model signals and now we have this orange that does look increasingly likely to do something. Probably will start a thread shortly.

While there's nothing concrete yet, the area off the SE coast is now an orange with 40% odds of development. In the next 48 hours, a non-tropical low is increasingly likely to develop along a stalled boundary--a common method of tropical genesis in the homebrew region. With a ridge building over the top of the boundary, it looks like anything that develops is likely to get steered toward the coast. It's a fairly uncertain evolution as the non-tropical low could develop tropical characteristics this weekend/early next week, become subtropical, or stay nontropical. I think what is different between this one and 99L, which almost became tropical but then went extratropical and hit Nova Scotia is 1) this is likely to develop much further south in a more tropical rather than baroclinic environment, and 2) that the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route. Where it goes is still a bit unclear, but the model look right now is somewhere along the Carolina coast and then possibly NW into the region. For something not terribly far out, there's a lot to be determined.

What’s folks will miss about this is that it was a flip from early season. The early season was defined by unusually strong waves but then things flipped as SAL peaked and you had this ITCZ feedback loop of north based waves constantly pumping SAL and stability into the tropical Atlantic. I know there’s a HC discussion to be had here too as Tip has mentioned before but that truthfully goes over my head.

I’d say this would be the greatest seasonal bust of my lifetime but I don’t know meteorological history like @ORH_wxman. But if we are tracking whatever—while I think the MDR can be flushed closer to home is looking more interesting IMO. Seems like the favorable homebrew window that I talked about pre 99L is going to remain open for the foreseeable future. Hybrid or tropical if we can get something to pop off the SE coast or in the western Caribbean rather than where 99L did.

Another one. Gordon in the eastern Atlantic. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 15 (2) Hurricanes: 10 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

Meh is right. Maybe the Euro weeklies will be right in shifting the peak season ACE to ~Sept 23-mid October but I’ve written off the MDR at this point. Also, for all the NHC names everything crowd out there, 94L says hello.

With Francine disposed of, I’m finally on the board…on September 12 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 15 (1) Hurricanes: 10 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

That’s why I don’t usually chase at the immediate coastline. I prefer wind, not water. (Except for Florence lol)

Looks like the signal has faded substantially but the general environment looks conducive for some kind of genesis—tropical or baroclinic.

From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo.

Peak season forecast going down in flames. MDR might as well be another planet. Nice job on the track. I think once we saw lightning going off upshear that should’ve told us what was coming. Having a FL wind of 106kt at landfall is pretty wild. That said…if this were 2020 or ‘05 or any true high end season that thing would’ve taken off as soon as it developed that first inner core off the Mexico coast and not looked back. Dry air be damned. I think it’s true that this is a quality over quantity season, but far from hyperactive or high end as a season.

I didn’t end up in the center, but this hurricane was legit in the region. Flash flood emergencies through metropolitan New Orleans (top ten daily rainfall) along with multiple hurricane force gusts in SE LA. Not like the monsters Ida and Laura, but a solid cane in its own right with RI up through landfall. The last FL wind I saw was 106kt and I saw a report of a 97mph gust west of NO. That’s impressive considering where this thing was structurally last night.