WxWatcher007

All the local folks I talk to say this start to winter has been wild. We're over 40" on the season now. Hovering around 10 degrees with -SN.

It seems so tenuous with the guidance split, but then I think we’re in a scenario where mid level magic would bring a solid coating at least even if we do get a messenger shuffle. Totally get the angst in MA but for CT I think this looks…I dare say decent. As long as folks aren’t thinking we’re going to trend to a warning event. Which I know nobody here does lol.

Totally agree. Question is whether it’s right. (I’ve always thought measurable was coming from this in CT)

Posting here instead of the main thread lol. It's frigid. This is man cold right here. It's 12 degrees and with the wind it's pretty rough out there. Of course, sunny with snow showers. 12.2/6

I spoke too soon. Last night we produced with the backside fluff. Final of 3.1" not including the other inch in the prior day. Very interesting that nighttime produces so well here. There's a meaningful difference even when temperatures are solidly below freezing. It's stark compared to anywhere else I've lived. Not sure why that is.

Congrats, that's awesome. First time I've had an underperformer here. Still learning the climo here.

I’m in Saranac Lake. You may be right about the downsloping.

However we can get it, we want it.

Yeah I think we’re far from settled

Underperforming a bit here. Right around an inch so far. An inch yesterday too in unrelated upslope.

I’ve been unwavering in thinking this is a measurable event for most of SNE.

Good trends at 12z

GFS back in the fold. Good to see. Euro better not step back.

Yeah, it's increasingly likely we see a reshuffle, which makes sense obviously because we're running massive negative departures, but the devil is in the details.

I’ve learned to embrace the primal weenie within. Unleash when necessary lol

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

I’m still skeptical that the ensembles have it right with regard to timing and amplitude. It’d be hard to put up a -10 month so a relaxation from what we’ve seen so far would not be surprising. The real question is if that precludes snow chances and pack retention for Christmas. Nobody cares if it’s 50 on Boxing Day if the day before was 30 with snow on the ground.

His own son

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God.

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.

I’ll never forget there was some suppressed storm years ago in the Mid-Atlantic, and somebody from RIC posted about southern VA getting crushed in the main tracking thread. They almost started a civil war lol.

To be clear, I do not like this “torpedo” pattern for SNE. I’m just not convinced that we improve our odds of success or make out better snowfall wise with a dramatically slower pattern. And certainly it’s better for tracking mentally than having everyone here placing all their chips in D10 long shots and complaining about lack of activity in between.

For sure. We love each other but regional jealousy and hatred is a thing. Isn't that why the board was broken up into subforums? I mean, in the Mid-Atlantic the DC-Baltimore folks scoff at the highland folks. The RIC crew have to tread carefully when suppression favors them and bite their tongue when DC cashes in. Even here...I know we joke...but while I'd love to post more about the turn of events that has me getting crushed in SLK, nobody in CT or Mass really gives a damn about my upslope or clipper overperformances or -14 lows, and the NNE crew does not want to see backslapping from Chief Wiggum to Kev on a southern slider. The annual wintertime snow wars are unlike any other meteorological phenomena. It is wishing for your brother to fail. It is rejoicing in the ruin of your friend. It is hand to hand combat. I want everyone to be happy, sincerely, but God as my witness if the folks along the CT coast have to rain for me to get a foot of paste, I want it. If everyone south or east of me blowtorches in a Grinch storm cutting through Binghamton on Christmas Eve while I'm buried in SLK with SN+, I will sleep like a baby. I know others feel the exact same way whether they want to admit it or not.

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region. We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us.