WxWatcher007

I think it’s a little more legit today than it was yesterday, but there’s an eternity to go.

00z Euro did, but I’d caution everyone to stay away from the verbatim deterministic outcomes—exactly where Lee ends up at 240. It’s all about the steering pattern and multi-day trend. As it stands, it still looks like the greatest likelihood is OTS (remember I was at 65% yesterday), but the two day trend in the steering pattern has increased the odds some of a threat to the east coast and/or Atlantic Canada IMO. This is still an eternity away, and we don’t have recon sampling the environment ahead yet.

Done

Did I pay you for the paid league yet?

As the tweet suggests, while there’s significant uncertainty over the strength and orientation of an E CONUS trough, there is a strong cross guidance signal of a more amplified ridge over the maritimes. That’s a big deal IMO, because while that’s probably not enough by itself to cause land impacts (Bermuda aside), the impact of that ridge amplification probably blocks a quick escape and limits the odds a truly progressive trough develops. It also increases the odds that this bends more NW/NNW after the initial turn north.

Let’s get a PRE before category four Lee runs up the CTRV to put an exclamation point on the wet summer

This looks more and more legit, especially with the ensembles hinting at a more amplified pattern. I still think this is NE, Atlantic Canada, or OTS.

If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO. Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up . Heater out your way.

That train left the station a while ago, facts and 10+ day solutions be damned

Such a long way to go with this one.

Loved tropical for as long as I’ve been alive. I can’t get enough…but I’ve done it enough to learn to keep expectations in check. Idalia was literally 10-20 miles from being a total bust for me. Hour 0. At the very last minute. Laura goes a few miles west at the last second and I end up with decent rather than the wildest wind I’ve ever seen in a legit category four eyewall. People will tie themselves in knots over the run to run variations but this stuff at this range is virtually meaningless. HAFS going nuclear is a major flag. Thought this one would be big a while back, but historic is on the table if it can avoid an early ERC.

Won’t be a TS long at this rate.

Extremely impressive presentation—this one is a contendah for a basin big dog, regardless of eventual track.

This thing is taking off. My goodness.

Love these, thanks for sharing. 100%. The euro run verbatim doesn’t get it done D10+ IMO. I’d tell folks to pace themselves but we just went through an entire winter breathlessly chasing D10 ghosts. A D10 cane is the holy grail and the train has left the weenie station.

Not exact times but posting for the purpose of a crude comparison. The last three euro runs at 240. We’ll see what the ensembles do.

First time according to the talking heads on Twitter

We do, but I trust ridging a hell of a lot more than trying to get a trough, and we pretty much need a trough. If you want interesting, you want more changes on the euro at 12z.

Even if the trough were perfectly oriented and perfectly timed I wouldn’t believe it at this range.

Severe weather.

120kts and below the guidance consensus This is going to be a monster.

Did a long post in the main thread. Keep expectations in check. I was intrigued this morning to see the subtle shifts on the Euro, even if the end result verbatim is still OTS.

Did a long post in the main thread.

Let's take a look at 95L, which will almost certainly be Tropical Storm Lee by the end of the day. The theme of this post will be managing expectations... As @Windspeed's post showed, we started to see 95L really take a leap forward last night, and this morning it's basically a TC and the NHC is likely to start issuing advisories at 11am. That's about as good as you're going to get for a tropical wave in the MDR, a stark contrast from a lot of the slop and slow developing waves we've seen in recent years. A wider view shows just how far away this one is, and provides some clues to the landscape ahead. The first thing I notice here is concentrated convection around 95L. While there is drier air around, there's a solid pocket of moisture that's developing around the system. In addition, and this is important, there's very little shear. An upper level low to the north is too far north to inhibit development, and will probably do the opposite as an outflow channel gets established further west and an upper level anticyclone develops overhead. Intensity guidance is high end as a result. Some may look at this and say "Oh boy, a 5 is coming!". Not so fast my friend. This is almost certainly our next major hurricane, and I'd go as far as saying this is our next category four hurricane, our third of many thought in early August would be a quiet season. Once you get to these high end thresholds however, you have to watch for structural changes such as ERCs that could cap intensity. For intensity, the expectation should be a high end hurricane, but while it is possible, expecting a 5 is asking too much IMO. Now to why I'm actually writing this post. The forecast track If we're being honest with one another, everyone has their rooting interest. Whether you want a land threat, eye candy that stays out to sea, or just to be right with whatever it is you've already posted, we all see posts with bias. That's not necessarily a bad thing if you know how to sort through it. I'd hope that after all these years most of you see me as an objective poster with regard to tropical, but I'm often working to check my bias too. Taking a step back, I think it's essential for everyone to remember how far out this system still is from having a well defined track evolution in the long range. I'm sure there are some reading that line and saying "well, that's what weenies always say". I agree. But I urge everyone to look past prior storms and analyze this current setup. Step I--WNW Movement Around Atlantic Ridge (High Confidence in 0-5 Days) The current phase we're in is high confidence on the guidance and it makes sense in analyzing the steering environment. 95L is a relatively low rider currently, but as it moves westward it will intensify rapidly and will begin to gain latitude. This is a saving grace for the Antilles, as it should allow future Lee to travel WNW around an Atlantic ridge. Even accounting for the lack of an established low level center, this one should pass to the north of the Antilles. I am posting the op runs from 00z for comparison purposes because they are similar 5 days out. Step II--Turn Northward (Moderate Confidence in 6-9 Days) I think there's high confidence that a turn occurs, but when and how sharp are open questions. On both the GFS and Euro, and by extension their ensembles, it's easy to see why a turn happens and why a turn itself is high confidence. There's troughing in the E CONUS that provides a pathway for a northward turn. How far west future Lee can get before a turn may be very important to New England and especially Atlantic Canada. Once again, looking at the 00z operational GFS and Euro, you see the evolution. This first trough you see very early in the period allows for the turn, followed by a second and critical piece of troughing later in the 6-9 day period. I'm inclined to trust the ensembles that show a turn between 65-70W, but this is something that is of lower confidence than the turn itself. This is where interests in Bermuda must watch closely. The degrees may matter if the next step gets tricky. Part III--The Final Turn (Low Confidence in 10+ Day Period) This stage is the whole reason why I think it's far too early to lock in any land or OTS solutions. This is where you consider the probabilities rather than deterministic solutions. Recall the D6-9 GFS and Euro runs. The first trough is only enough to turn 95L north. It's not enough as currently modeled to sweep 95L out to sea as the models are trying to show a ridge attempting to build over the Maritimes/Atlantic. That means that a second trough is required for a kick. The problem is, while a Midwest trough is looking like it will try to dive in quickly after the first, it's unclear whether we see a positively tilted trough where the westerlies effectively kick 95L to the northeast and OTS, or a cutoff low that would effectively capture future Lee and pull it 1) northward into Atlantic Canada, or 2) northwestward into New England. Here are the ensembles at D10. This is a trend gif, showing the various solutions over the past two days at 240. Look at the ridging and troughing. The EPS has shown deeper eastern US troughing in recent runs with more ridging over the north Atlantic while the GEFS are kind of all over the place. Verbatim, it still may not be enough for a bona fide land threat outside of Bermuda, but there's enough uncertainty in the long range to pay attention along New England and Canadian Maritimes. Again, it's about keeping expectations in check. Long range consensus does not necessarily imply accuracy. We are going to need time to figure out what the steering pattern looks like after that northward turn occurs. A trend toward the coast can easily reverse at this range, and so can the current OTS solutions. If I were placing odds at this moment on what would happen it'd be the following: 65% OTS--because it is extremely hard to trust a cutoff low being positioned and timed "perfectly" as 95L turns north to create a land threat. 20% Atlantic Canada Threat--because an extended northward track with a slight bend (a la Fiona) is more likely with any kind of cutoff or negatively tilted trough. 15% New England Threat--because the turn north is more likely to happen east of the region and a threat would require the aforementioned positioning and timing to be precise for what'd likely be some type of extended NNW to NW heading. These numbers will change, but the overall message in this very long analysis is that while we have higher confidence in the 0-5 and perhaps even higher confidence in some aspects of the 6-9 day period, there is a lot that needs to be sorted out given the steering pattern potential beyond ~day 8.

It’s subtle and verbatim probably leads to the same outcome, but the 00z Euro opens the door to more Atlantic ridging and a somewhat different E US troughing setup, allowing for a more northward rather than NE turn through 240. Again, this is all so far out it’s hard to get a strong read on anything.