WxWatcher007

Yeah I started the thread on the invest on the main tropics page.

Gert came back from the dead, and Katia has formed. All eyes should be on 95L. Forecast has been excellent thus far. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (7) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia

Totally agree. The troughing signal is going to be uncertain for at least another 7-10 days IMO. Get it to the Antilles and we'll see what things look like. Get it to the Bahamas and all bets are off. OTS favored until there's a strong EC signal. This one is a big dog whether it impacts land or goes OTS. CV major of yore.

Just updated the OP with an analysis

The NHC has designated our AOI in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 95L. It already has a good look to it, with significant spin and some disorganized convection. Normally, I am more muted when we're at the invest stage, but not this time. I believe this is the strongest signal we've seen for a long track CV major hurricane in quite some time. Why? The environment ahead looks tremendous not just for tropical genesis but significant intensification in the MDR. First, it's the moisture. Unlike early August, where SAL and subsidence dominated the MDR, we have a more moist and unstable environment thanks to the presence of much stronger preceeding waves scouring out the SAL. Look at the dramatic rise in instability in the MDR since August. It's more than enough, as we've seen. Obviously the thermodynamic environment is excellent. We have strong SSTs and OHC through the MDR and basin. With a strong ridge building in over the Atlantic, wind shear should initially be low. That alone is enough for TC genesis. There is a long runway of low shear in the MDR. (Edit: there are low trades initially, which means easterly shear, but I don’t think this will disrupt progression much after a few days) However, what sets this apart from other setups, especially in recent years, is that it looks like the orientation of the steering pattern is going to create ideal conditions for ventilation. From Eric Webb Folks, that's big time. All systems seem poised to allow for TC genesis, followed by an increasing level of organization and eventually, intensification. It's reflected on the guidance consistently. Each operational model has a strong system nearing the Antilles. With a strong ridge over the Atlantic, the Antilles have to watch very closely, including Puerto Rico. Once this gets to the Antilles, as you can see above there is a lot of guidance that tries to round this around the ridge. All bets are off then, as we turn our attention toward the East Coast steering pattern relative to the Atlantic ridge. Climo always favors OTS at this stage, but given the presence of strong ridging showing up on the guidance, this may be one that we're watching for a while, especially as guidance tends to underplay the strength of ridging. This is also where we need to watch the orientation of troughing in the eastern US, but that'll be at least 7-10 days away. At the very least, this is likely to be a threat to the Antilles and a significant ACE producer. In my estimation, 95L has the best chance to be the strongest TC in the basin this season.

Yes, that’s definitely true, but what I think is different here is strong consensus on the first big Atlantic ridge over the basin keeping this west. That’s enough to get it to the islands. All bets are off after. It’s way too far out, but just having the above ridge on the ensembles is problematic imo because the guidance has been underselling the ridges we’ve seen thus far. I’d still think that troughing over the E Coast could be around for a late kick, but you never know.

It’s as close to a MH lock as you’ll ever see, which means I was probably too conservative with my peak season MH forecast. I don’t think that’s it before October 20.

It’s as legit a pre-genesis signal for a long track major hurricane as I’ve seen in a while. No guarantees it stays OTS but I’d probably favor that at the moment just given climo.

Wouldn’t be surprised. Given that an ERC was happening, it was a really interesting eyewall with a lot of spinning. The damage survey after had a lot of trees snapped.

Well, nobody in New England should ever expect a direct hit until an eyewall is over their house. I’m just talking about the CV signal.

From a legit dead basin to this. Buckle up folks, I think we’re rolling through the 20th.

Been a while. Maybe not since 2017?

Regardless of whether it makes a close approach to the US, it’s a classic long track CV signal.

The long tracker is coming.

My video from the storm. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Here’s my Idalia video. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Jose could become a hurricane lol WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (6) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose

Here’s my video from Idalia. Crazy seeing so much debris in the air. Enjoy. I’ll do my damage survey video tomorrow.

Yes, I think so, just keep in mind that troughs can easily modify in future runs. The orientation and depth matters a lot—like we saw with Franklin.

Christmas is four months away.

Right. I’m not tracking this seriously. I need a few days to recover from Florida. Maybe we go from joke to “threat” by then

This would be pretty funny. Cat 1 or bust for sloppy seconds lol.

At least we’ll be able to see the clouds spiraling in the sky as the naked swirl passes over New England.

I actually think we’re ripe in that department. Look at the OHC too. It’s enough. A climo track implies a fast mover hugging the coast and the Gulf Stream so I think the real issue is not having a kicker trough. They’re lurking even when we don’t think they are. If we were developing an ideal sloppy seconds Idalia track, it would get trapped under the ridge and pushed westward back toward the Carolinas until a trough picks it up. Aside from that, real chances would come from homebrew in the western Caribbean or Bahamas.