WxWatcher007

Wait a week. More upper level than anything at the surface. I hinted at it in another thread days ago but I think there’s legit potential for something off the SE coast next week—maybe tropical, maybe hybrid—as a boundary settles off the coast. Probably an OTS type deal but there should be a ridge building over the top that could force it north or back west.

While the models continue to waffle some, the region continues to look convectively active and maybe trying to consolidate some. 925mb vorticity loop https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor5/wg8vor5_loop.html

Incredible considering the far western portion of the state is in exceptional drought. Not that far away.

I kind of use them interchangeably, because they’re often “intertwined”, but this is a good explainer & visual. Pinpointing where/whether TC genesis occurs within a monsoon trough is difficult, but a monsoon trough itself tends to be a viable mechanism for TC genesis. Sometimes multiple TCs. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20110519_tafb_unifiedSurfaceAnalysis.pdf

Haha breaks happen every year, even during the peak. Now is the time for rest, football, and cleaning up the yard.

Let’s get the bugs dormant with a cooldown. I just got back from DC where the last two days had heat indices over 100°, and late summer step down sounds good to me. Truthfully though I don’t care what happens. It’s all tropical all the time now for me.

The operational models on balance today have latched onto a TC genesis signal for something near the Antilles/Caribbean via the monsoon trough. This is the NHC designated orange. The 18z Euro is faster and more robust with development through 90. Still, I’d caution that monsoon trough TC genesis is very difficult to predict and get right, so there could still be a waffling signal over the next day or two. However, given that I believe the primary reason for a “lid” in the basin so far has been stability/SAL/northern extent of past waves, we have legitimate reasons to believe genesis is possible. First, shear is relatively low in the zone where genesis is most likely, which has been a characteristic of the season thus far. Second, in this area further west, we have additional instability and a highly favorable SST/OHC profile. This is still in sharp contrast to the eastern MDR, which has seen a substantial rise in instability, but is still well below normal climo due to what’s been discussed the last few pages. I can’t overstate how important I think it is to have the MT south and possible development in the central portion of the MDR. This keeps potential development away from the greatest influence of SAL, as you can see below. Still, it’ll be important to watch convective trends the next 48 hours. No convection, no early development. You can see the MT easily with the ribbon of convection south of the SAL above, and below you can see how there’s already elongated modest low level vorticity. What breaks off and where will matter for the future, but for now, we just watch for convective activity and signs of vorticity consolidation.

Tagged with a lemon now.

I’m guessing it’ll be a waffling signal for genesis the next few days as the models struggle with what’ll come out of the MT, If anything, but the environment ahead looks quite favorable should something actually try to form before the Antilles.

It makes sense that we’re potentially starting to see signs of life as the EPAC goes quiet and the monsoon trough/African waves start to end up in more climatologically favored regions. Whatever comes of that MT could be worth watching generally as it gets into the Caribbean—that’s if anything develops. Shear is low across the MDR, and the shear profiles look absurdly favorable mid-September across ensembles. Although still well below normal, instability in the eastern MDR has increased markedly this month, and SAL intrusions have been less prominent. Waves just need to survive crossing the eastern MDR wasteland…

I don’t think ENSO will necessarily influence track here, certainly not as much as where a TC forms in the monsoon trough and how soon…if it happens at all. I’m kind of in “need to see more” mode before jumping on the lid is coming off train, but in the next week I think there are probably three areas to monitor. 1. Monsoon Trough in central Atlantic (40% NHC odds currently) 2. The eastern Atlantic tropical wave that @Windspeed has identified 3. SE U.S./central Atlantic where a boundary may help spur genesis for something moving eastward and into the open Atlantic

Was walking with friends when I said: “This feels like outflow to me. I know outflow anywhere.” Opened RadarScope and

Honestly, I think the issues are identified and we’re all truly just in wait and see mode for if or when the lid comes off.

That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1.

And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases.

Despite it being a wet season, it hadn’t felt too bad mosquito wise. Most bugs actually. I have these big horse flies that keep showing up in my house though.

Yeah forget wild. We need signs of life first lol.

We’ll see if it holds but this should test my theory that we haven’t seen much traction in the basin recently because everything is too far north and it’s killing waves before they have a chance. There’s still plenty of SAL and stability in the eastern MDR, but something further south should be able to overcome it with enough time in a low shear/high SST environment.

Maybe, finally, some signs of life on the models? The signal is messy but there at least this cycle to do something with a wave that’s further south in the eastern MDR. Would test the theory that further south could work with enough time to mix out SAL.

Happen to be at BDL to catch a flight. Not a bad look here.

Seems like there have been several instances of models struggling to keep up in the tropical realm this season.

Good stuff here this morning. The issues with stability in the eastern MDR have been a recurring theme for one reason or another the last few years, so it’s not terribly surprising (though the reasons this year are) that we’re seeing issues again. That said, I agree that a more backloaded season looks on the table and did so before all this. Problem with activity further west is you need AEWs to not get slaughtered the minute they leave the African coast lol. Subjectively it’s a good break for any coastal areas anytime the basin is anomalously dead. And good for my sleep pattern.

Amazing how time flies