WxWatcher007

Euro couldn’t hold a consistent track on this one even if it were threatened with being unplugged.

PREs can happen left, right, or directly ahead of the track. Just depends on the jet/trough orientation ahead. Doubt this is a PRE setup unless Ernesto ends up substantially further west. Which is unlikely.

Third hurricane of the season

For New England to even sniff significant impacts you’d need the NE turn near Bermuda to essentially evaporate, and a stronger ECONUS trough to fully capture. That’s going to be extremely hard to do. I wonder if something like that is even in the record idk. Partial capture does nothing for New England imo, but for Atlantic Canada a partial capture likely brings a hit there.

Nothing good lol

Most of us knew it, but the models didn’t until just a few days before and I think it had a real world impact on Houston. Definitely not saying it’s coming here or even hitting land, but the model performance this season especially with track leaves a lot to be desired imo.

It’s been really interesting to see how the euro and gfs specifically are waffling with the longer range forecast. I won’t be surprised to see other major shifts.

I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance.

Bermuda will be fine and Ernesto looks like a standard mid-grade TS that’s trying but failing to develop an inner core. It’s on schedule.

@Hazey and Nick still squarely in play at this range.

I’ll never forget being glued to my TV as it seemed that every advisory showed more intensification.

80 in January?

Nah—anything is long past post tropical by then

Big time heater there. Yeah—keeping with the track theme, the pace of the race picks up quickly as peak climo speeds up big. The other multi-season trend that we’ve seen with the eastern and central MDR is waves struggling there but really exploding when getting to the western Atlantic. We need that to break and have quick development right off the CV islands if we’re going to do 25+ NS I think, but another 3-5 majors could be more doable because of cool neutral ENSO reducing Caribbean shear and the extent of OHC/anomalies in the Gulf and western Atlantic. Far less SAL influence further west. It’s actually pretty wild to see the difference in different sections of the basin.

I do too but we can’t even clear the bar of utter blowtorch and/or disaster the last half decade. A normal winter would feel tremendous, especially temps wise.

Especially during the winter.

This may not have much of a chance to trend toward mainland U.S. impacts, but Atlantic Canada is still squarely on the table.

Back to Ernesto, kind of surprising that the EPS are left of the GFS now when the GFS was once furthest west. It’s bouncing between west and east with this model run hitting the maritimes.

Don’t really disagree with any of that, but if the standard is 2005 then no season will be close. Nobody would say 1933 wasn’t truly hyperactive and it finished 20/11/6 with three hurricanes and maybe one of those as a major before August 15. 54 ACE. I think the SAL and stability issues that have existed for about a half decade now have capped (no pun intended) things to an extent so far, and it still is 5th all time in ACE to date. Beryl is meaningful in that it showed the potential of the season for robust waves to really pop in normally hostile conditions, but yeah, it’s not representative of what the season will be. A lot of track to run still.

Yeah—I’m sounding like a tropical stan lol but if we had more NS but they were the typical early season slop, I think we’d hear that the quality of the season has been poor. Also you’d need a ton of those to get to current ACE. I guess it is a matter of perspective but the data is the data too. You still fight climo in JJ and early August unless you’re 2005. I mean ‘05 laps the greatest season of all time in that stat I posted. It’s the anomaly of anomalies. If Beryl and Debby didn’t have dry air plaguing them they could’ve been majors, but in virtually any other season they wouldn’t have developed at all because the conditions would’ve been much more hostile. Especially with Beryl. That’s why I do think Beryl was the canary in the coal mine. If Ernesto produces, you’ll have a major in the central Atlantic before Aug 20 after the Cat 5 from Beryl. That speaks to potential far more than having a lot of short lived NS or even non major hurricanes that pop out of a small favorable environment.

I guess, and the season could absolutely still underperform, but the people that know tropical haven’t just relied on SSTAs. And I’ll reiterate that while this season may feel quiet, it has done the exact opposite of underperform. With 41 ACE pre-Ernesto the season was 5th all time in ACE to date (from GAWX—it’s behind 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42)). This is with the post Beryl lull. All NS have impacted land. The U.S. has two hurricane landfalls. Now if the thought is the season needs to be in front of 1933 and just behind ‘05, sure. But ACE can’t be gamed the same way that looking just at short lived NS can. Would you rather have a bunch of short lived slop generating 35 ACE, or the earliest 5 on record and an additional hurricane out of four systems? For this time of year we’ve actually had quality stuff. Will it continue? I think so but it remains to be seen. Edit: it’s kind of like running the 400M hurdle at the Olympics. We’re off to a fast start, but we have 85% to go and any one hurdle (cough: SAL) could end that quickly.

Where do you get the ACE to date data?

Distilled the best I can, it’s moving so fast within the easterlies of the MDR that we don’t see the westerly wind that you would normally expect for a TC that’s moving in the basin more slowly, but that just masks the fact that organizationally it’s more vertically aligned and consolidated than one would think. Once it slows down it should intensify at a faster pace.

But—this is really interesting