WxWatcher007

Last hour radar indicated 2-3" and pushing 5-6" last three. I'm not sure how slow to update that site data is currently you posted. It's either incorrect, delayed, or radar is a temporary simulation experiment. I'll take one of the first two options. I'm using RadarScope but I see three hour estimates in that range and totals between 7-10” overall just west of the city.

That’s the kind of band that can drop 20” with enough time.

Grain of salt for sure lol. If we see some substantial severe down in the Mid-Atlantic it may foreshadow some activity here. Still pretty funny to me that we’re days out from something meaningful here. Tropical tracking isn’t for the impatient.

Euro

Paging @weatherwiz From a met in the MA subforum

Things will probably pick up in a big way across the MDR soon. It should be a hyperactive peak.

You just want to see the TC genesis signal at this point, and it’s robust.

Visible

Right, but it normally only takes one area to raise the maximum sustained wind. I disagree on the structure. To be clear, it’s still broad with dry air clearly entrained, but compared to yesterday or even this morning it has become more organized imo. For this region the wind doesn’t matter, but if it’s better organized at landfall that should help moisture transport as it landfalls and speeds up. The visible shows it well imo.

Time and the broad center are definitely limiting factors. NHC has 12-24 hours before landfall.

If you recall yesterday, I said to watch for convection and broader structure organization as Debby pushed offshore. Recon still shows a broad wind field, but radar shows solid banding and IR shows convection trying to build closer to the center. We’ll see how much progress it makes today.

Stronger at 11am. Seeing convection start to go up closer to the center but time and a broad center are limiting factors.

And that nearly every factor is aligned for an extremely busy peak…

@MillvilleWx always on it.

Boring is fine. Later August through peak should be plenty active. Shouldn’t be our only bite at the apple though next time we’ll have a Bahamas tempest that’s captured by a cutoff on guidance at D5 but evolves to a kicker to Bermuda at D2.

In this case, I think environment will moisten some and dry air will diminish, but dry air will likely linger to some extent around the center. This shows up pretty well on the hurricane models like HWRF and HAFS A & B. Even with a favorable environment, it takes a while for a disorganized tropical system to mix out dry air. It may be more efficiently mixed if the center got over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, but time and its current state are major inhibiting factors.

It has some significant dry air to mix out, but given that it should be over warm water and a low shear environment the next day or so, it should intensify some.

I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize.

Mostly for areas south of us, but some efficient rainers still possible in S CT

Smoked down there. Good call WPC. I’ll admit I didn’t see it yesterday. It looks more run of the mill here, but even then it’s a fairly significant rain event for summer. Also, pretty funny that the time we do trend from a kicker trough to one that draws a TC north, it carries the TC to Binghamton.

Some PWS already well over an inch.

Precip popping on LI and coastal CT.

Severe thunderstorm and FFW over White Marsh

I said yesterday I was going to be looking at structure, convection, and organization as it moved toward the shoreline. After starting the day nearly fully hollowed out by dry air and the effects of the slow trek over land. The last few hours have seen some modest organization as the center moves over Savannah and offshore. You can see how banding is trying to organize around the western side, though dry air is still present—now in the southern/southeastern side. Perhaps importantly later on, the center itself is well defined with shallow convection generally wrapped around. To be clear, there is a lot of work to do before this can really reintensify at a meaningful pace, but this is what I’m watching as the center crawls offshore.

I don’t think it matters much yet, but Debby is looking markedly more organized as the center tries moving offshore. You can see shallow convection on the formerly dry side and a better defined center.