WxWatcher007

Was walking with friends when I said: “This feels like outflow to me. I know outflow anywhere.” Opened RadarScope and

Honestly, I think the issues are identified and we’re all truly just in wait and see mode for if or when the lid comes off.

That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1.

And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases.

Despite it being a wet season, it hadn’t felt too bad mosquito wise. Most bugs actually. I have these big horse flies that keep showing up in my house though.

Yeah forget wild. We need signs of life first lol.

We’ll see if it holds but this should test my theory that we haven’t seen much traction in the basin recently because everything is too far north and it’s killing waves before they have a chance. There’s still plenty of SAL and stability in the eastern MDR, but something further south should be able to overcome it with enough time in a low shear/high SST environment.

Maybe, finally, some signs of life on the models? The signal is messy but there at least this cycle to do something with a wave that’s further south in the eastern MDR. Would test the theory that further south could work with enough time to mix out SAL.

Happen to be at BDL to catch a flight. Not a bad look here.

Seems like there have been several instances of models struggling to keep up in the tropical realm this season.

Good stuff here this morning. The issues with stability in the eastern MDR have been a recurring theme for one reason or another the last few years, so it’s not terribly surprising (though the reasons this year are) that we’re seeing issues again. That said, I agree that a more backloaded season looks on the table and did so before all this. Problem with activity further west is you need AEWs to not get slaughtered the minute they leave the African coast lol. Subjectively it’s a good break for any coastal areas anytime the basin is anomalously dead. And good for my sleep pattern.

Amazing how time flies

Books can be written on this mindset.

Some lower level vorticity and disorganized convection that came to be because of a decaying boundary, but not enough time to develop.

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books? Actually we would It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic. Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference.

I think climo being what it is with the dramatic ramp up that usually happens post August 20, that ACE and the NS count being what it was August 15 vs August 25 mean very different things if that makes sense. It’s a reasonable argument on 8/15 to say well look, we’re at top 3 ACE in the satellite era and 5/3/1 is tremendous when normal should be 2/1/0 or whatever, and the peak is coming—steady as she goes. That’s why I disagreed with the arguments that the season had disappointed. To date. But today with the same numbers the climo treadmill speeds up by the day. We’re at peak broadly speaking. There should be activity in the Atlantic but Hawaii is getting scraped by the symmetrical eye of an intensifying hurricane. Every day that passes the NS forecasts look more endangered, but I still think H and MH are easily within range. 2022 and 2017 are good reminders that we can flip late and still put up an exceptionally high quality season. I do think it’s all about stability. In the eastern MDR it’s being reinforced by the MT/ITCZ being so north that any vigorous waves in recent weeks have rolled off Africa so far north that they get choked by SAL and much colder SSTs. Just look at how everything shut off after Ernesto. If waves were rolling off anywhere between 10-15N we’re all having a different conversation. That and a suppressive MJO combine to kill anything leaving Africa before it can even get far enough west to get off life support. If you look at the Euro and GFS moving forward, basically everything rolling off is doing so at 20N lol. You can’t even sniff a coherent enough wave to develop until 60W or greater. For the sake of my peak season forecast that needs to be transient lol but I’m not going to worry until after Sept 7 or so.

The GOAT of GOATs

The top right graphic there with wind observations is absolutely wild.

Because they’re entirely different time periods with different climatological setups in the basin? This time of year when the MDR is supposed to be lighting up, we’ve seen how SAL and stability in the eastern MDR can suppress August activity in recent years. We’ve also seen how that’s done little to blunt backloaded seasons because late season climo sees the decline of SAL and shift of TC genesis to the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Shear is more an issue late season normally, and that’s unlikely to be as much a roadblock this season given either a cool neutral or weak Nina ENSO state. 2022 had no activity between early July and early September but had 3 H in November. In active seasons there’s usually some activity in November. Including 2017, 5 of the last 7 seasons have had activity in November. If you told me a weak Nino were on the table late season like last year, November activity is off the table even with historically warm SSTs/OHC, but that’s not what we have.

Football is back. We fall. 75-85° is still plenty nice.

Still think homebrew region (especially Gulf) is best bet for activity through next week but eventually something will pop in the MDR. Let’s see how this latest wave coming off Africa does. That wave should be hounded less by SAL than prior waves so the signal for genesis could gradually improve on the other models in the coming days.

When you have two tropical systems heading toward Hawaii and rain in the Sahara it’s usually slim pickings in the Atlantic.

Yeah I wasn’t trying to ask a leading question there. I do think the mid to high 20s NS forecasts will be too high at this point, but I do still believe low 20s is achievable given that I expect activity into November. It’s pretty weird to see so little out there right now, but we’ll just have to see what happens when the lid comes off.

Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion?