WxWatcher007

Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC.

Going to be a stronger GFS run tonight as it had a more organized system near the Yucatán.

Certainly possible that continental dry air causes disruption, but I think it’s less of a risk here than usual because there doesn’t look to be enough shear to impart it on a system that should be relatively organized and therefore more resistant to the shear. The upper level trough looks weak in a few days and if anything I think it’ll promote ventilation/outflow. Let’s say it doesn’t though. If future Idalia is able to build an organized core as it enters the Gulf, the outflow should be able to blunt the influence of shear and dry air. I think that’s why models are basically unanimous in having this intensify through landfall. That’s a huge flag to me that this has a higher ceiling. The possibility of land interaction the next 36 hours or so is really critical to the track and intensity forecast.

Every other region of the country seeing historic or high end wx this August while every other post in the New England subforum is about a random met nobody has ever met and their middle age social life.

You can see on that graphic that it’s still working under the influence of the ULAC. That’s been key to development given the shear in the region. It’s basically working in a pristine TC genesis environment currently—and land is the only thing that could be reasonably expected to slow this down before it lifts into the Gulf.

It absolutely has a chance, though I’m not sure if it gets there. NOAA throwing all the recon it has at this one starting tomorrow.

Comes with the territory here. We’re on to fall and football season.

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has developed, although surface observations indicate that the western semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that the current intensity is around 25 kt. The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow. The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone. This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3 days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area. 2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 21.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Boring end to summer

Because there’s nothing else to do…I’m guessing their first map will have a landfall near Steinhatchee (north of Cedar Key) at 70kts, cautiously setting aside the higher intensity hurricane models until recon can get in there tomorrow.

12z EPS Worth noting how bearish the ensembles continue to be on significant development. This isn't a long range forecast.

Gert may have been on their mind

Advisories likely at 5pm as the organizational trend for 93L continues. Big split on the guidance on the eventual track after Florida and honestly, idk where it's going to go given the massive steering pattern shifting we've been seeing on guidance for the northeast trough that was supposed to carry Franklin away.

I had no idea when I did my peak forecast and said that the US would have another MH landfall this season that one would threaten a week later I always saw potential with the last week of August though...

If you want to know how seriously the NOAA/NHC is taking this, here’s your answer This is not something to wait until the last minute to prepare for.

The 12z Euro basically leaves Franklin behind after looping over Bermuda! That's like a 1500 mile trend over 24 hours. That's extraordinary, and would almost certainly make Franklin a big ACE producer.

With the massive shifts we're seeing on the guidance with regard to the steering pattern post landfall, there's a lot of uncertainty on where this eventually ends up after Florida, and if it gets left behind by the northeast trough. I know that's far out, but it's something of interest for the SE coast folks.

I am really fascinated by this. It has been a truly appalling performance by the models on Franklin. Now the Euro basically takes Franklin from west to east near or over Bermuda. These are massive shifts at medium range.

On TT I like using 200-850mb wind shear, and the same 200-850mb wind shear anomaly plot for pattern recognition. Going deeper, I love using the 355k Potential Vorticity plots as well to recognize TUTT development/movement/strength. Of course, you have the averaged soundings that can be used as well.

Euro short range still wants to take this near or over the Yucatan in the next 24 hours, so I suppose that's still something to watch. All the globals still playing catch up though to the organization we've seen so far.

No surprise, but the NHC is telegraphing advisories later today. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near the Yucatan Channel continue to gradually become better organized. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this system later today. The system is expected to move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Agree. I really think it’s land interaction at least initially. The visible has been impressive, but look at the Cancun radar. This is a TD imo and if it’s not it’s damn close. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/