WxWatcher007
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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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Keeping my mouth shut and primal rage bottled up. I said nothing would come easy days ago and I need to remember that as this threat goes on life support. -
Not where it needs to be, but I don’t think 00z was a death knell. Definitely bad, but if anything it reaffirms how important that NS element is. Very important to see more steps forward in future cycles over the next 36 hours. 12z 18z 00z
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New England Winter 2024-25 Bantering, Whining, and Sobbing Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to klw's topic in New England
What not to do. Of all the places too—DC -
I’m so happy for all of you. Congrats. Now let’s get some snow on snow this weekend.
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I’ve been deliberate with my ensemble posts
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I do too, but we’ve all been porked enough the better part of a decade to be cautious until we’re actually measuring
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Even though I’m bullish, I totally agree with having some apprehension given how sensitive the setup is. It’s big boom or big bust imo. I think public facing communication should remain conservative as a result, at least for now. Although I think it’s less likely now that we’re 24h closer, there’s certainly the risk that this trend broadly backslides, which is an especially pronounced risk here because of the sensitivity to the ridge and actual phase.
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Would really like to see consensus..
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The next frame for those unnecessarily panicked There’s still a long way to go. Far from locked, but better than we were starting the day.
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Look at these changes. This is what you want to see. 00z 06z 12z 18z
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Definitely want to see something similar on the 18z EPS. Note how little is held back here Compared to the 12z EPS (which was a modest improvement over 00z)
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A couple runs notwithstanding, I have loved this look overall. This can absolutely be a megalopolis/region wide KU. The whole trend for multiple cycles has been positive, surface depictions be damned.
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You just need to see that the NS phase is happening. The exact surface depiction is irrelevant. I’d rather keep seeing nuclear detonations near the coast vs 200 miles off Virginia Beach.
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Radar still looks pretty solid in southern CT.
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Yeah it still needs work
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@CoastalWx in the images above you want to see a further north and more buckled field, right?
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The mean looks much improved to me but I can’t see the members yet. 12z yesterday 00z last night 12z today
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Flurries here in East Hartford. At least I got a T out of the DC storm lol
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Yep. Won’t get there but I suppose it’s something. Let’s see what the ensembles do.
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It makes sense. At this point I think we want to see consistent improvement across guidance. Especially the ensembles and gfs/euro.
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00z 06z 12z
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Very good move on the GEFS. 00z 06z 12z
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Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point.
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This. A thousand times this. I still don’t care that much for the details. I just need to see fusion happen to know we’re in business. By 120 you know whether it’s game on or not looking at 500mb.
