WxWatcher007

Almost escaped with the slowly departing trough over the Atlantic but this other one pops as a big ridge flexes in the wake of the trough. That’s one way to do it without seeing the rest of the run…but definitely not easy with the original trough there.

BDR gusted to 49mph but otherwise winds are reasonable.

I’m just saying for right now. There is definitely a signal at this lead that a close approach is possible, but at least in my mind we’re only at the wait and see (and analyze) stage.

With the prices we pay here in CT the grid needs to be titanium and gold plated.

I’m no mod, but please, for the love of God, let’s keep this thread to analysis, and if you can’t analyze, something that’s rooted in meaningful discussion.

Zero reason for any concern in the U.S. yet.

With all of the conversation in the main thread covering this wave, I figured it was time to start a dedicated thread. The theme of vigorous waves emerging in the Atlantic this season continues with a new wave in the central Atlantic. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Models are effectively unanimous in developing this wave as it reaches the Antilles in a few days. On the ensembles, the genesis signal is robust across guidance, increasing confidence that Ernesto isn’t too far away. What has captured attention are two things. First, the potential development and intensification environment looks favorable. With high end SST anomalies and OHC, there will be fuel. In addition, the wave is currently south of SAL and has a very good moisture envelope, reducing the chances at least as of this post, that dry air won’t be a tremendous inhibitor. Shear looks manageable for the foreseeable future. The result is the guidance signaling strong development, though at different stages. The second thing is obviously the track. Again—this is something for the Antilles to watch. Guidance brings this close as early as a few days from now early next week. Longer term prospects are unclear, but this doesn’t immediately scream as a safe recurve pattern with the potential of a cutoff trough in the eastern CONUS and ridging in the Atlantic. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to stay away from long range declarative statements. This is something to watch. It is not a bona fide threat to the continental U.S. at this time. Watch the ensembles and where/how the long range trough develops.

The first thing to remember is that there are other critical factors that determine level of named storm activity and high end H/MH activity like wind shear and instability/moisture. Everything to me suggests those factors will be favorable as early as next week. If we’re just taking SSTs, emphatically yes. The basin is near historic to historically warm—not just in SST anomalies, but the extent of the anomalies, oceanic heat content, and those anomalies. And these temps usually peak in September. The train is coming.

Just like winter there’s a line that can be walked. But wishcasting and mehcasting are the paths of least resistance. I agree to an extent. Looking at op runs are just weenie fodder at this range. Even looking at 500mb on them independently of one another you don’t gleam much if you’re just looking for will mby get something interesting. There’s a place for that for weenies (myself included so I’m not trying to be holier than thou) so I get it. No different than winter. BUT I do think that a long series of ensembles and op runs at range can tell you a lot about the steering environment and TC genesis/intensification environment if you’re willing to put on blinders on the other stuff. We know it’s “easier” to forecast ACWB, ridge/trough combinations, teleconnections, MJO/CCKW passage at range which all play substantial roles in tropical development and steering. Once there is a center then you can get to the other stuff, but going back to the early Debby conversation—for this area and I’d say for the entire east coast, you can see the outline of an ominous pattern/landfall window long before something develops. What drives me insane in this subforum uniquely is the rush to lock in 1938 or dismiss something that’s a threat even if it doesn’t necessarily end up 1938. You have to work the problem to the end with tropical. There are enough examples of massive guidance shifts just in the last half decade or so that impacted the U.S. or Atlantic Canada. Just my humble and long winded opinion lol. About everything lines up. I expect to be on the road a lot if hits aren’t poorly timed with work.

Seasons in seasons. About 1/3 of the way through August, the climo step down is gradually accelerating, and soon the dog days will turn into school days lol.

Wonderfully beneficial rains out there. Really good to see.

I didn’t realize you needed the rain that bad.

Recurve is always the betting favorite. That’s our climo. Often times you can see the recurve pattern a mile away, other times the steering signal is more interesting. This is the latter right now. If the trough were showing up as flat as a pancake or out in the Atlantic there wouldn’t be anything to discuss. We’ll see what it is should this wave develop in about a week, and when it’s actually approaching the ECONUS some days after that.

They’ve been on a heck of a heater.

I didn’t expect it D2.

Just need to see that the trough isn’t an automatic kicker. This is an eternity away and purely speculative obviously but you roll the dice with this look. Trough weakens and it’s gone, trough cuts off for real and it’s a LI Express.

For this far out, I just want to see what the trough looks like, and it has potential imo.

GFS should be interesting

GFS shows you exactly what I mean. Today’s trough cuts off and draws Debby north. If it were flat and progressive it would’ve kicked Debby east. The very next trough is in a different location, but it effectively cuts off too…right in the danger zone.

Kev knew