WxWatcher007

Back to Ernesto, kind of surprising that the EPS are left of the GFS now when the GFS was once furthest west. It’s bouncing between west and east with this model run hitting the maritimes.

Don’t really disagree with any of that, but if the standard is 2005 then no season will be close. Nobody would say 1933 wasn’t truly hyperactive and it finished 20/11/6 with three hurricanes and maybe one of those as a major before August 15. 54 ACE. I think the SAL and stability issues that have existed for about a half decade now have capped (no pun intended) things to an extent so far, and it still is 5th all time in ACE to date. Beryl is meaningful in that it showed the potential of the season for robust waves to really pop in normally hostile conditions, but yeah, it’s not representative of what the season will be. A lot of track to run still.

Yeah—I’m sounding like a tropical stan lol but if we had more NS but they were the typical early season slop, I think we’d hear that the quality of the season has been poor. Also you’d need a ton of those to get to current ACE. I guess it is a matter of perspective but the data is the data too. You still fight climo in JJ and early August unless you’re 2005. I mean ‘05 laps the greatest season of all time in that stat I posted. It’s the anomaly of anomalies. If Beryl and Debby didn’t have dry air plaguing them they could’ve been majors, but in virtually any other season they wouldn’t have developed at all because the conditions would’ve been much more hostile. Especially with Beryl. That’s why I do think Beryl was the canary in the coal mine. If Ernesto produces, you’ll have a major in the central Atlantic before Aug 20 after the Cat 5 from Beryl. That speaks to potential far more than having a lot of short lived NS or even non major hurricanes that pop out of a small favorable environment.

I guess, and the season could absolutely still underperform, but the people that know tropical haven’t just relied on SSTAs. And I’ll reiterate that while this season may feel quiet, it has done the exact opposite of underperform. With 41 ACE pre-Ernesto the season was 5th all time in ACE to date (from GAWX—it’s behind 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42)). This is with the post Beryl lull. All NS have impacted land. The U.S. has two hurricane landfalls. Now if the thought is the season needs to be in front of 1933 and just behind ‘05, sure. But ACE can’t be gamed the same way that looking just at short lived NS can. Would you rather have a bunch of short lived slop generating 35 ACE, or the earliest 5 on record and an additional hurricane out of four systems? For this time of year we’ve actually had quality stuff. Will it continue? I think so but it remains to be seen. Edit: it’s kind of like running the 400M hurdle at the Olympics. We’re off to a fast start, but we have 85% to go and any one hurdle (cough: SAL) could end that quickly.

Where do you get the ACE to date data?

Distilled the best I can, it’s moving so fast within the easterlies of the MDR that we don’t see the westerly wind that you would normally expect for a TC that’s moving in the basin more slowly, but that just masks the fact that organizationally it’s more vertically aligned and consolidated than one would think. Once it slows down it should intensify at a faster pace.

But—this is really interesting

It’s moving way too fast to acquire a coherent and durable LLC imo

Nice to get hit with a downpour for once

Solar storm is a G4 right now. Maybe we can get some leftovers tonight.

It’s an interesting change at this range. This relay is part of the reason Atlantic Canada should definitely watch.

I don’t think it has. Shear hasn’t really been the issue this season. If anything it’s been anomalously low. Like a lot of recent seasons, however, I think it’s been dry air/stability. This looks like a lot of other recent years. This looks at the environment between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two things stand out though. The first is the recent spike in instability in this part of the MDR. If you look at an SAL plot you’ll see that the layer is further north but still present. In places where SAL doesn’t dominate, the instability is quite more robust further west. That’s the second thing. This is just a snapshot below but it illustrates why I think CSU has so much ACE predicted in the western Atlantic. Combine this with SAL coming off its climatological peak and all you really need are seedling waves to get west for heightened TC genesis chances.

Here in CT. Visible with naked eye!

Saw that the lights got to MD last night! This was here at home. It was stunning.

Said it yesterday—last EC hurricane landfall in 2020 (Isaias), last EC major 2004. You need the perfect pattern along the EC. That’s why I’m more lukewarm on the long track MDR systems. Ah got it. I still think it’s more likely than not even if we got one more NS after Ernesto in August. That’s where I think OHC and a cool neutral ENSO extends the season to provide more runway. Edit: just to show why—these anomalies aren’t going anywhere. Cool neutral reduces shear, a weak Nina is even better shear wise. If there’s an active West African Monsoon—and everything suggests it continues through the peak, even the clear recurve late season stuff could have a path to be big ACE producers. Even warm neutral years greatly reduce shear.

This seems bafflingly prisoner of the moment to me? There’s historically about 85% of the season left at this point and we’re running ahead of climo in NS/H/MH/ACE before Ernesto even forms and potentially becomes a longish track ACE producer. We’ve had two US hurricane landfalls before Aug 15, which formed during normally hostile climatological periods. Both of those systems, while not majors at landfall (why would they be, the first MH is expected September 1) rapidly intensified in the 48-36 hours before landfall. I feel like I do this every August around here when we’re not at like 10/5/3 by August 10 lol. The data is objectively impressive compared to the historical record. A number of our recent seasons produced huge peaks—I don’t see anything yet to suggest this peak won’t be big, and I’m not focusing on SSTAs or OHC in that statement though they do matter. Highest # of NS 8/11+: (from GAWX) 21: 2020, 05 16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50 15: 2023, 1933 2017 didn’t get its first hurricane until August 8 and then pulled off 10 consecutive hurricanes mostly in September and October. There are whole ass seasons outside of the ones above that happen in a few weeks focused on the peak of the season more often than not. The average days between 1 TC forming is 14 in July and 11 in August. Of course things can fail. But the pre-peak activity doesn’t scream anything but top 10 season at least to me. Don’t need 28 NS for that.

I saw reports about something happening in the higher latitudes on Twitter so I put the camera out just in case. Walked outside to collect the camera and it was absolutely perfect timing. Looked up and could immediately see pillars and light. Will definitely hit you up if anything like this happens again I think it was a surprise to many. Back in May while the whole planet was experiencing the lights I was in MD for travel…and it was overcast.

My God. Visible here with the naked eye. This is incredible.

Yeah—even on that run though you can see how the initial trough isn’t quite enough on its own to kick it into the open North Atlantic. We’ll see what the trend is tomorrow both on the models and with the development of our PTC. It may be the case that weaker is great for the islands but creates more risk elsewhere. I still think Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should be paying close attention to this one. Still a nonzero longshot for the US.

Note how the GFS has trended away from rapid development, with vorticity further south and elongated in the Caribbean. That leads to less influence of the initial trough. That is something that we already knew to watch, but you see the implications on the model tonight even if there are no direct land impacts outside of the Antilles.

Interesting perhaps that the GFS has trended weaker and further south with vorticity in the Caribbean. Trough looks deeper though so it may not matter. Second edit: lol

Anyone seeing an aurora out there? Seeing more and more posts on Twitter. Some as far south as PA and IA.

Yeah I think Bermuda could handle any category.