WxWatcher007

Steinhatchee would've been a great center intercept call despite all the wobbling last night. Like you said, eastern side looks very well organized. Now we wait to see when and where it leaves the coast. A lot more rain coming to Florida… All Debby had to do was landfall

Pressure down to about 979-980mb. Pretty substantial drop the last 12 hours. edit: that came from the final dropsonde

Those kind of loops are excellent at showing actual motion, thanks.

Recon now reports a 30nm eye that’s open in the northeast per latest VDM. 77kt FL wind and extrapolated pressure at 979.8mb.

I bet Cedar Key folks are hoping for a northward resumption soon.

If I were chasing this one I’d probably be in Steinhatchee, and more than a little nervous that it’ll come in further south due to this more eastward movement. That said, these can wobble a lot. Add in the tilting like @csnavywx noted and the tightening of the core, the recon fixes are even more important. The radar the last 90 minutes has been interesting. Seeing lightning now in the eastern eyewall as it tries again to tighten and close off.

Honestly I don’t think there’s been anything terribly surprising today. Despite the fits and starts or organization, we’ve seen lower end rapid intensification the last 36 hours. It’s organizing at a faster pace the closer it gets to the coast, as expected, and it should be a solid category one perhaps “low end” two at landfall. The most interesting thing has been the level of wobbling as this tried to tighten an inner core. That could have downstream impacts if this turns east sooner and reaches the Atlantic faster but we’ll see if that actually happens. Thought we’d see more consensus between the GFS/Euro but no dice.

7.96 met summer here.

Just so we're all working with the same facts. Not all from Debbie but you get the picture. WPC

Bear in mind though that you look to long range heading for landfalling TCs because wobbles are natural. Center fixes from recon will be extremely helpful.

There’s no nuance on Twitter (and sometimes here) too. A lot of people think RI means a doom scenario TS to cat 4, but there are plenty of instances like this one where you go from a minimal TS to a higher end one or whatever. We talk about categories and wind, but retirement of this name will hinge on the extent of rainfall along the coast and inland. Hard for a lot of folks to be objective (not throwing shade, it is what it is).

It’s pretty unusual. The NHC track tells us where we think this is headed though. I really do think it’s a close call on whether this gets back into the Atlantic long enough and in a structural condition that allows for meaningful reintensification. Where this makes landfall I. Florida probably has downstream impacts for the Carolinas.

Love this

It looks like it. The organizational trend has been consistent through the day after the earlier dry air intrusion. Still don’t quite have deep convection fully wrapped but that’s probably not as much as an inhibitor as earlier. Meanwhile on the model front the GFS keeps driving this well south of other guidance. Very big spread at a fairly short lead. They’re going in opposite directions lol.

It’s incredible how last year my area was nearly ground zero for big rains and this summer rain has evaded my location in seemingly new ways.

We need this to gain more latitude if we want anything more (rain wise) than a run of the mill 2-4” January rain event.

The banding does look good. I’d just like to see more wrapping around the center. I do think this has a good shot at reaching a two before landfall as well and as folks should remember from Beryl, rapidly intensifying at landfall is nothing to scoff at.

Until it can fully close off an eyewall it’ll be susceptible to dry air intrusions and organization happening in fits and starts. Going to take some time. Edit: meanwhile, coastal flooding ongoing

For now perhaps. Problem with east ticks of that they could keep going lol.

This. Even a substantial portion of its ensembles have disagreed with driving it that far inland. It seems synoptically unlikely.

So weird that after taking the other models to the woodshed early the GFS decides to do shrooms halfway through the exam.

What a cut off.

I’d roll the dice with an icon like track

That’s the wave? Yikes, that’s robust. We’re not in the basin wide favorable period yet.