WxWatcher007

Going to need to be a lot of study on how pervasive stability and a further north ITCZ stifled the highest end potential. I don’t recall the ITCZ issue in the past, but stability has been a major issue the last decade.

I still think it’s too early to pull the plug completely. We could easily have a big peak between September 15 and October 30 and that’s probably impactful for the US given climo, but for now…the lid is still on even though it’s showing signs of trying to come off.

Perhaps if it can stay offshore for another day or so it could get the requisite convection to fire over the center. There’s deeper convection around but not where it needs to be for TC genesis. I guess we’ll see if some of the shallow stuff around the center can take off over time. Environment seems conducive especially if it drifts south.

It’s not great lol. My own peak season forecast aside, I think the high NS seasonal forecasts are likely cooked, with the H forecasts now in legitimate danger. MH still squarely on the table because I think the environment outside of the eastern MDR is ripe for nukes, but we can’t get anything developed enough to take advantage of historic SST/OHC and anomalously low shear. Just throwing a number out but something like a 14/8/4 seasonal total instead of a 25/15/6 seems more likely especially if we can’t get this central Atlantic wave to pop in the next 5-7 days. I think that one is a true toss up. Edit: and to be clear since I was defending the forecasts/activity two weeks ago lol, 14/8/4 would be a seasonal bust of EPIC proportions.

It’s having a hell of a time trying to generate convection so far today. Anemic may be generous. If it can’t get the engine started in the next 24h imo those less bullish model depictions through the Caribbean become much more likely.

Can’t end the month without acknowledging the last major.

I know I keep repeating it but you can see how small changes in the next 48 hours leads to this waffling signal across guidance. The 12z GFS had very little consolidation and as a result the disturbed area can’t coalesce until the western Caribbean. 06z Monday 06z Sunday 18z has marginal consolidation with stronger vorticity—not an unreasonable possibility—and the result is much faster development in the Caribbean with obvious impacts on intensity and track. 06z Monday 06z Sunday This is why I think it’s incredibly hard to latch onto any particular evolution yet. A lot is still on the table.

Thanks. Had a beautiful lawn and no crabgrass in April. Not so much now smh.

Radar looks like there’s a tighter low there, but proximity to land is an issue to say the least. Still, flooding rain potential along the coast.

It’s not terribly surprising to me to see the signal pulse up and down as this tries to consolidate. Can it be convectively active enough to organize some before the Antilles? That’s an open question to me and has big track and potential intensity implications.

Time to reseed right? How do I get rid of the crabgrass?

Monsoon Trough. Tends to be a good focal point for tropical genesis, but can lead to messy model signals because you get competing areas of vorticity. In this case, the monsoon trough also helps to moisten the central Atlantic. Could be useful later in September.

That’s what I posted about earlier today. There’s been a cross guidance signal for something for days now. It’ll get meh’d but the signal for something offshore is there. We’ll see if it’s there next week though.

I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential.

New lemon right off the TX coast…but it’d need to stay offshore to develop.

That’s the current NHC orange. It should be noted though that the NHC has tagged that surface trough near the TX coast with 20% 7 day odds. Models have played with the signal, but it’s all dependent on whether it drifts inland—which it does on most models. On the ones where it stays offshore like the ICON, it develops some.

Seems more upper level for now and it’s in an area of high shear. If it gets to the Gulf time would probably be a limiting factor.

Wait a week. More upper level than anything at the surface. I hinted at it in another thread days ago but I think there’s legit potential for something off the SE coast next week—maybe tropical, maybe hybrid—as a boundary settles off the coast. Probably an OTS type deal but there should be a ridge building over the top that could force it north or back west.

While the models continue to waffle some, the region continues to look convectively active and maybe trying to consolidate some. 925mb vorticity loop https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor5/wg8vor5_loop.html

Incredible considering the far western portion of the state is in exceptional drought. Not that far away.

I kind of use them interchangeably, because they’re often “intertwined”, but this is a good explainer & visual. Pinpointing where/whether TC genesis occurs within a monsoon trough is difficult, but a monsoon trough itself tends to be a viable mechanism for TC genesis. Sometimes multiple TCs. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20110519_tafb_unifiedSurfaceAnalysis.pdf

Haha breaks happen every year, even during the peak. Now is the time for rest, football, and cleaning up the yard.

Let’s get the bugs dormant with a cooldown. I just got back from DC where the last two days had heat indices over 100°, and late summer step down sounds good to me. Truthfully though I don’t care what happens. It’s all tropical all the time now for me.