WxWatcher007

What a nuke

Posted in the wrong thread lol but here’s my morning analysis.

Regardless of the peak, Beryl is on borrowed time as a category five hurricane. There’s unanimous agreement that it begins to run into a ribbon of shear later today that will start to erode its vertical alignment and open it to intrusions of dry air. The question is the degree of weakening, which is critical for Jamaica in particular, which may receive a direct hit. Here are the four most reliable intensity models tomorrow at 15z as Beryl approaches. After Jamaica, there is substantial uncertainty that only grows over time over the fate of Beryl. The models all continue to weaken Beryl as it enters the western Caribbean. The track has trended north, and into the Yucatán late week. From there, it gets really tricky. Is Beryl weak enough to die over this region? Is it stronger than anticipated after Jamaica, leading to a reduced bend westward? How does the troughing in the Midwest influence a weakness that would trigger a more northwestward bend in the Gulf? What does the environment for reorganization and intensification look like in the Gulf? All unanswered questions at this time. As it heads into the Gulf, there’s tremendous spread. Be wary of the specific model means, as the western/southern solutions kind of lead to an unrepresentative mean in the later stages of the runs. However, there has been a clear trend north imo in the last 24 hours which means folks in Texas need to watch closely as well. Note how the Euro has two camps: one that follows the 00z operational and keeps Beryl weak and south, and another the more closely follows the hurricane models above. The “super ensemble” is still favored south into Mexico, but it’s north compared to yesterday. Basically—there’s still a lot of spread here both in intensity and track. Folks in the Yucatán and western Gulf need to keep watching this one. Finally, this is made very clear by these two runs of the Euro! 00z and new 06z sees substantial flip flopping continue over the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Yucatán. Long way to go with this one.

These are all still some awfully impressive recon passes. It may be peaking, but with the latest pases I think you could make the argument that peak is somewhere near 170.

There’s probably going to be a limit to warming and depth because of TC activity and intraseasonal pattern changes (think trade winds) that slow or stop even more runaway warmth, but we’re in uncharted territory. It’s almost certainly going to be historically warm and combining that with the other major factors it’s going to be historically active IMO. Activity comps—2020, 2005, 1933 SST comp—2023

00z GFS significantly weakens Beryl but is a little further north for a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday afternoon, a Yucatán landfall (also weak) Friday morning, and a further north track into south Texas (also weak) late Sunday. A good illustration of how much uncertainty there is later this week.

Down to ~936mb per dropsonde

What’s more impressive though, is that SAL to the north and an anomalously low wind shear environment allowed Beryl to blow through climatology and the historical record. It’s amazing on numerous levels. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Pressure still dropping. Recon just had a pass with an extrapolated 934.9mb.

When your basin looks like this, it’s definitely September.

I mean what can be said. That’s absurd lol.

Beryl is now the first category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.8°N 64.9°WMoving: WNW at 22 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 160 mph

First hurricane, on July 1, in this part of the basin. It’s already extraordinary but that feat would be astonishingly impressive.

What was the WAM in 2007? I think the combination of extraordinary warmth/depth in the basin with a more classic AMO, WAM, and building Nina is going to give us plenty of high end activity. My only hesitation at this point is the continuation of vigorous waves pushing anomalously high SAL through the eastern MDR, triggering more stability issues than initially thought.

Even without functioning SFMR I think there’s enough evidence to upgrade to a 5, which is just unreal for that area of the basin on July 1.

Calling attention to both Lowry’s analysis and the TDR data.

8:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.4°N 64.0°WMoving: WNW at 21 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 155 mph

I would’ve expected higher SFMR in that NE quadrant given the FL winds, but no dice. I feel like we say we wish we had recon during a number of peaks since 2017. Not shot at recon of course, they have schedules and protocols to follow.

937.3mb extrapolated on that pass 139kt, 149kt, 151kt FL readings

I’ve never understood that either.

Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement.

I think at this stage it’s good to focus on ensembles for longer range track or looking at the cluster of reliable operational models. NAVGEM is not on that list imo. I’m particularly a fan of the “super ensemble” that combines the ensembles from major guidance. It doesn’t mean it’ll be right, as @wxmx and others have pointed out there are still important things to resolve in that medium to longer range, but it’s a really helpful place to start. For folks that want access to the graphics above, here’s the site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

Thanks, everyone. I’ll pull the post down since it’s inaccurate.

Looks like HAFS-B had the right idea.