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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. Very interesting model runs. It looks like the steering pattern more or less collapses if this gets into the Gulf. Just meanders as it waits to be picked up by a dominant steering feature. A lot to be resolved with this one.
  2. I’d say the Gulf right now with the ridge/trough pulling it NE but the steering pattern kind of collapses if this takes its time getting there. I still favor something along the EC, which would be unlikely to help the region.
  3. Nothing to really generate excitement yet, but for a tropical head like me I’m paying more attention each day. It’s going to be a few more days until TC genesis.
  4. There’s going to be a lot of waffling op runs the next few days but the main takeaway is that this remains a viable TC genesis opportunity that could threaten the EC (most likely SE) or E Gulf before some type of recurve.
  5. Yeah I think that probably continues to be a limiting factor but just note guidance has become more aggressive with intensification recently. With a favorable UL wind environment that can help keep nearby dry air from getting imparted. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with this one, but it continues to look legit to me.
  6. 100% I still lean heavily with the EPS and more EC potential. Even before convection started it looked like the wave axis was a little north to allow for the well west GFS solutions, though E GOM should definitely follow this. Still very early to make definitive track or intensity statements but the environment in the western Atlantic looks quite favorable for intensification—which is why I think we’re seeing an uptick in intensity from the GFS op and EPS. Nothing crazy, but notable given the environmental factors ahead.
  7. It’s a very favorable environment in the western Atlantic, but the size of the wave and dryness aloft has kept this from popping quickly. I’d still say it’s unlikely anything happens in our neck of the woods but the SE is definitely in the game and we (and Atlantic Canada) should keep a casual eye on it. I don’t think the GFS Gulf solutions are viable given the convective activity we’re starting to see north of the Antilles but we’ll see if that activity leads to earlier development.
  8. Congrats again Atlantic Canada on the Euro But seriously, our only chance for anything other than cirrus is for the ridge to drive this into the Carolinas and then NE. Even then, remnants are a long shot. Maybe we can get a PRE out of it in SNE while Stein cradles Dendy to sleep lol.
  9. Quite robust as it hooks northeast. Euro remains the most aggressive guidance clearly.
  10. You really want to look at the 5 day to see the change but the environment is gradually moistening. There’s been lower level pooling in the wave so as it continues wrapping in moisture from the ITCZ that should help as the wave gets to warmer waters. The western Atlantic looks favorable but the wave is so large and dry aloft it’ll take time to organize. I still think the GFS is way too far west with this. It looks like a SE coast/recurve to me eventually.
  11. The evolution of this one still looks in line with thoughts a few days ago. Just need to watch for when convection develops (probably next few days) and whether the vorticity tightens.
  12. I’m following a little more closely now. Lines up with my thought that we’d start to see activity in early August, though earlier than I expected. The steering pattern—while long range—seems interesting. I think more for the Atlantic than the Gulf.
  13. **this is speculative discussion on a long range op run** If you’re looking for a NE threat, the 12z Euro is probably how you do it. I doubt there’s a classic cutoff over the GL Region to draw up a Long Island Express, but a stronger/more expansive ridge and weaker/slower trough should guide something around the periphery of the ridge.
  14. If folks up here want to track tropical, they should probably wait until the watches are up. So many things can kick things east or keep stuff south. SE coast probably due for a hit or two this season if ridging holds into September.
  15. Ridge placement will matter a lot. Fantasy out at this range of course.
  16. I don’t think the timing climo matters as much these days if we’re talking August. Just a few years ago we had Isaias in early August. You just need the right steering pattern and importantly…an actual system that’s developed. I wouldn’t summarily dismiss a US threat (even if not NE lol) with this lemon. This seems like a fairly classic case where models catch up to the likely more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic tied with a well timed CCKW passage. It’s not much today, but it’s definitely worth a casual watch right now imo.
  17. Hadn’t been following until now but on first real glance the Atlantic lemon looks legit. Whether it’s a threat to the US remains to be seen but it may be given the steering pattern next week.
  18. Always funny to see the Euro more aggressive with TCG than the GFS.
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