WxWatcher007

PDS severe warning in central PA The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Lackawanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Central Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 617 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mountain Top, or 11 miles north of Hazleton, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Ashley, Bear Creek, Dorrance, Slocum, Preston, Sugar Notch, Nuangola, Warrior Run, Laurel Run, and Lehigh. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across central and southern Luzerne. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

The storms west are taking shape and have produced some wind reports.

Not sure—with any of these really. It’s all about the environment once they develop.

If it’s in the MDR, mog hard lol

Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days.

I just think Climo will keep 94L & 95L in check a bit. Maybe enough to get a name, but not enough to become a major hurricane. Shear or at the very least trade winds will probably be a factor in the Caribbean. Today’s runs on 95L were interesting though. Debby probably arrives late July/early August. All speculation of course.

Well this place is active I feel Debby

Yikes. Happy Hour in Europe.

Wheeee

Derecho incoming?

Where do you see that?

Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat.

I’ve missed a microburst in Albany and two supercells over my house in the last week. I’ve cornered the market on pain.

There’s a real robust signal on the EPS and GEFS for something to pop with that second MDR wave next week.

Too soon if you’re talking about high end stuff. Climo rules even in the most favorable of years. An Elsa (not track, just development case) would be a best case imo. This is an anomalously favorable window though for something in the MDR.

As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted.

Agree. NAM was robust but this seems like a southern special to me.

Maybe some 30% wind probs somewhere? Favored areas look to our south though right now. ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe thunderstorms through the period. One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km, suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent, but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop. However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for categorical upgrades.

Always love these statistical posts. I didn’t even realize the last few years were that active that early. Still, I do think it has little meaning especially since we have an anomalously favorable setup coming for the MDR in early July. The AEWs have been robust thus far and I don’t expect that to change. SAL dominates now but you just need a window or two for activity to pick up. We nearly had two additional NS with 92L & 93L. Probably early August. Anything sooner and that would be a blaring signal of a big season incoming.

Posting because there’s still interesting meteorology here. This is a great thread.

Today was interesting. My original staging point was going to be Lebanon, NH, but before I could get too far I ended up stuck in traffic after a terrible accident closed the road and required LifeStar. By this point, the pre frontal storms started firing, and it was slow going until I had my first target—a cell that looked like it had growing rotation on radar. That led me to Manchester Center and I got unlucky as the storm failed to cycle. I had to follow it east a bit but it never really regained its original look even though it became severe warned. I saw the cell to the south near the VT border go up and I bailed south. This defined the day as from that moment on I was trying to catch up. Then I saw the CT radar. I kept south…and while I caught part of the structure of the supercell that went over my house, that was it. Today was frustrating, but severe chases are awfully hard especially in New England and I didn’t necessarily make any wrong decisions. I’m now home and there’s a garden variety storm, but it’s picturesque as well.

Thinking of Lebanon as my starting point. Access to a good road network is foremost in my mind for this one. Could start further south though depending on trends.

Seems like a classic tough severe forecast day down here lol. Like you said, even if we’re mostly capped it only takes one to break through to get things real interesting. Tricky messaging for a CT audience. As always, really helpful and informative.