WxWatcher007

Yeah that’s not how tropical works.

Wasn’t he the guy who said Michael was really a cat 2?

Was at an antique store and hit the jackpot. Found a magazine from 1938 documenting the Great Hurricane. The images are unbelievable. Happy birthday to me!

Looks too broad based on what we have right now, but they need to sample that north side.

Plenty of westerlies and early hints of FL and SFMR over 34kt. Not enough sampling yet to confirm a closed circulation but it’s probably there.

Recon descending now

It’s hard to tell via radar but there looks like there’s a fairly well defined low level circulation.

After casually watching a window for TC genesis in the Gulf or off the SE coast the last week, the signal began to focus on disturbance spawned by a stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed and Invest 92L has rising odds to become at least a moisture laden tropical depression as it meanders the next few days. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Near the Southeastern United States (AL92): Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend if the low remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Still skeptical of anything meaningful up this way.

Area of interest right off SE coast now has 60% development odds. Most models are on board with something coming together.

Summah

1.25 and counting. Nearby house is over 1.5

Good light show

91L became a short lived TS, and the signal today has gotten stronger for some type of homebrew development with the lemon. The euro is also keying in on another low possibly forming further off the SE coast after.

Homebrew area of interest odds up to 30%

I mean recon was in there. It checked all the boxes. It was slop, but def a classic early season short fuse TC.

Delayed but not denied

Just hit 90 here

I’m probably the biggest NHC naming defender here, but at least at the time it was named, Andrea was a joke. In the 24 hours or so before being named I recall that system being close to a TC, but when it was named it was little more than a swirl devoid of nearby convection. Barry was slop, which is what you’d expect in June, but it was legitimate. Recon found a sharp wind shift, there was persistent convection, and eventually recon sampled TS force wind. It made landfall as a depression. You’re not going to get a ton of ACE or eye candy from a subtropics swirl and a low that was the beneficiary of BoC magic in June.

Yes—and likely in a significant way. Although there are other satellites that provide microwave data, losing these specific streams (which were delayed due to push back from folks within NHC/NOAA) will keep forecasters from being able to use microwave data in some instances to get a center fix or understand realtime changes occurring in a TC. Imagine what looks like a rapidly intensifying hurricane on our doorstep with recon six hours away, or a system that looks to be organizing at a faster clip or completing an eyewall replacement cycle. MW can get us real meaningful info when we need it. Also, the quality just isn’t as good at times due to where the scans occur. There’s that too. Lol

I'm not in a rural area by any means, but I still try to create an environment that doesn't disturb nature too much. The last two years I've had a resurgence of fireflies, rabbits, and pollinators. The fireflies have had a banner year so far. Not sure how much my mowing habits contribute lol.

Gulf or SE coast remains worth watching. The signal for genesis is still there with the GEFS focused in the Gulf and Euro focused off the SE coast. Either could be right.

Coastal areas of the Gulf and SE are now a lemon.

Every year I say the GFS is getting better with tropical, and then it does this crap.

82/73