WxWatcher007

Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay

Yeah we have a long way to go…

Even with this half scan, Humberto is an absolute beast.

It would be an enormous coup, especially considering where the ensembles were.

I'm surprised you didn't post the skynet version

Somebody mentioned Joaquin the other page and man, this might be worse. I don’t think there’s anyone that even has a clue of what this will do.

It would be an all time win for the second tier models.

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action.

With Humberto rapidly intensifying today, another MH is on the board. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH)

Taking a look at our coming PTC. Thanks to @Nibor for showing me how to post larger gif animations. You can clearly see both the gradual organization and headwinds for the coming PTC 9. To the north, you can see arc clouds still radiating out of the area, indicating the presence of some dry air. You can also see some of the thunderstorm tops being sheared, although it does look like in recent frames that things may have slackened some. It's easier to see the larger scale spin, and recon is on the way to examine how well defined a low level center there is. For a relatively short term forecast, there is still a lot to be figured out.

It looks like the ensemble members on balance don’t have that coastal stall. The slower members stay OTS

Don’t look at the specifics. I’m just highlighting the threat of widespread high end rainfall. That signal has been there consistently, even though the axis of heaviest rain has bounced around.

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time.

Keep this up and it might outdo winter storm posts.

PTC likely later today Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located over the subtropical central Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical cyclone Gabrielle over the northeastern Atlantic. Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart/Hagen

How did you get a larger gif to post?

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. Funky.

The Canadian, as usual, is funky.

Not to mention the onshore flow. A further south track with that flow over Charleston would be very bad. The Low Country is called that for a reason (I used to live in SC).

Exciting times in New England.

You can see pretty easily why the establishment of an inner core matters here. On the 06z GFS run, the core is weaker and less structurally sound, and as a result it’s easier for dry air to get entrained. The result is a slowly intensifying storm (take note) on landfall. 12z has a symmetrical core, which not only makes it stronger but closes off the eye from dry air entrainment. The result is a substantially stronger hurricane that is likely intensifying more robustly on landfall. I can’t emphasize enough how important it’ll be to get a well defined LLC so that the models can figure this out. I think an east coast strike is highly likely at this point given the GFS/Euro and their ensembles overwhelmingly overlapping in the general upper level steering features.

Meanwhile, Humberto is likely a major already. It just exploded in intensity.

When looking at recon earlier I didn't think that we had anything closed, but perhaps that's a function of the possible LLC being so close to the coast that recon can't get there. Looking at some of the surface observations, I guess you can close this off. I suppose the northerly wind on the south Cuban coast implies some sort of LLC. I just think it's marginal at best for now.