WxWatcher007

There are some pretty strong FL winds found in the flight so far. 55kt FL peak and 41kt SFMR.

As expected, we now have lower level recon rather than a survey, and Alberto is substantially more organized than it was just a few hours ago. Earlier survey Now

Over the top

The SW Atlantic area identified about ten days ago is now invest 92L. Has some work to do to get classified as a TC.

If it’s an invest or has legit development odds it should get a thread imo. I don’t have a monopoly over tread starting so other folks feel free to start! @GaWx It’s not terribly surprising to me that the SW disturbance I discussed a while back is an invest now. I am a little surprised to see such a well defined low, but it needs convection, and that may be tough with time running out and dry air/shear lurking. Perhaps it’ll take advantage of the diurnal cycle to spur TC genesis.

Chipmunks?

The storm north of Chicopee has an echo top of 55k ft.

Awesome, have a great time!

Home station topped 91.4° Furnace here in Albany before the clouds rolled in.

Congrats NNE on the heat and storms

Coastal areas FTW

We know the Euro was running wild, but fantastic call a few days ago.

Slight risk up here in Albany tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center. This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto. Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves inland through the day. Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or 270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S. builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time Thursday morning. Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30 degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday. A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then. Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Always a good TC genesis bet down there between the concave shape and the absurdly warm waters most seasons.

On the same pace as yesterday. Meh so far.

We should have our first named storm soon

It does look more defined now. Should definitely be classified. I do wonder whether the deep convection east of the current center could trigger a reformation or wrap upshear with additional time and frictional convergence near landfall.

Wish I had more time to post in here but I’ve been crazy busy. I’m guessing there will be low level recon rather than a survey tomorrow given the structure and landfall approach. To me, this is as blaring a signal for a hyperactive season as we can probably see at long range. I agree with @NorthHillsWx that seeing a ULAC is really uncommon, especially early in the season, but keep in mind that shear still kept 90L from developing in the Gulf not that long ago. It is very interesting to see the pattern over PTC One and the Gulf. Every part of the basin is primed to take off once climo becomes more favorable. The Gulf is really a spot to watch later.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

80 here at 1am, 81/70 at ALB. A cool 71.3° at my EH home station.

Last year I must’ve screwed up because I had them and when I cut the grass early in the summer season they didn’t come back. This year so far they’ve been great. Really harkens back to the warm summer evenings of my childhood. I’m in Albany this week and I can confirm it’s a blowtorch. Still 82° here in the city.

The heat index definitely performed here.

Fell short of starting the heat wave at home. 89 (88.7°) while HFD got to 90°. Big dews though. Oppressive.