WxWatcher007

First hurricane, on July 1, in this part of the basin. It’s already extraordinary but that feat would be astonishingly impressive.

What was the WAM in 2007? I think the combination of extraordinary warmth/depth in the basin with a more classic AMO, WAM, and building Nina is going to give us plenty of high end activity. My only hesitation at this point is the continuation of vigorous waves pushing anomalously high SAL through the eastern MDR, triggering more stability issues than initially thought.

Even without functioning SFMR I think there’s enough evidence to upgrade to a 5, which is just unreal for that area of the basin on July 1.

Calling attention to both Lowry’s analysis and the TDR data.

8:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.4°N 64.0°WMoving: WNW at 21 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 155 mph

I would’ve expected higher SFMR in that NE quadrant given the FL winds, but no dice. I feel like we say we wish we had recon during a number of peaks since 2017. Not shot at recon of course, they have schedules and protocols to follow.

937.3mb extrapolated on that pass 139kt, 149kt, 151kt FL readings

I’ve never understood that either.

Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement.

I think at this stage it’s good to focus on ensembles for longer range track or looking at the cluster of reliable operational models. NAVGEM is not on that list imo. I’m particularly a fan of the “super ensemble” that combines the ensembles from major guidance. It doesn’t mean it’ll be right, as @wxmx and others have pointed out there are still important things to resolve in that medium to longer range, but it’s a really helpful place to start. For folks that want access to the graphics above, here’s the site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

Thanks, everyone. I’ll pull the post down since it’s inaccurate.

Looks like HAFS-B had the right idea.

Beryl is a truly extraordinary system. May make a run at category 5.

945.1mb extrapolated on that latest pass

Absolutely incredible. July 1. In the MDR.

We’ve also seen instances where SFMR are discounted at extremely high speeds, or found to be more instantaneous than sustained. Not saying that’s the case here but we’ve seen it before on our high end storms.

The consensus for this one really came apart in the last day

It’s just a tough area. Our meh days are really meh and on the higher end days we’re so densely populated that can be highly impactful. My question about the geographic scale is—I think we are kind of end up in a compressed range on the SPC categories part because of climo and part because of size. They wouldn’t really do an enh for a few counties and mod and high risk aren’t really possible here. Once a generation days don’t count.

This escalated quickly lol

Hopefully some beneficial rain for areas where it’s badly needed.

Which is why I wholeheartedly believe that another Gloria type event would be legitimately catastrophic here in CT. I have to say…I agree. It’s not just that statistically the more active a season is the more likely our always low odds are higher, it’s the steering pattern that I expect to play out because of the expected CONUS summer. Particularly August and September. I don’t think it’s like last year where there were possible windows because of so many GL troughs cutting off. I think if there’s a window it’s late July to mid August as something rides the edge of an Atlantic ridge, or mid to late September (but probably earlier in that period) when we can get something in the western Caribbean shunted north off an approaching trough while the Atlantic ridge is still a prominent factor in our wx. Of course odds are always low yada yada but we’ve been fairly active the last half decade.

I’m just asking generally, not really talking about today.

Why does there need to be a geographical coverage criteria for the higher categories? That’s how you get enhanced damage on slight days.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the ERC finishes, and if that actually precedes another period of RI. Longer term is interesting even with so much consensus right now. Edit: yup ^