WxWatcher007

MDR is really looking legit. 94L is heading toward the Bay of Campeche, 95L is poised to become our first true MDR system as early as this weekend, and there’s a pretty robust signal for the following wave to develop eventually. All after Alberto and 92L/93L being very close to getting classified near land. Even with 1 NS so far things are extremely active.

Judging by visible this morning, this does have a good shot of spinning up into a NS relatively quickly. Surviving the Caribbean, particularly if it can do it as a hurricane, would be highly impressive to me.

Agree with @Windspeed. This is an anomalously favorable environment for TC genesis, but there is a substantial difference between highly favorable for TC genesis and the kind of environment you need for a hurricane let alone a major. Even with the guidance being bullish, we really need to see what comes together within 95L itself and then analyze that against the environment and climo. I’m not saying it’s impossible—clearly it is this season—but it is far from even being likely right now IMO.

Phil has been busy tonight.

June 2024 Derecho Kev and @Torch Tiger called it Sunday.

What a wild night. What a wild week. I was damn sure going to be here for this one. Watched a big light show and some possible lowering as the storms got close and the watched Hartford’s lights get obscured by an absolute torrent of rain and brief wind. Not as strong as other locations, but legit.

Willimantic crushed per reports

I thought it was faster than the NAM to latch onto the northern CT potential today, but it really did end up a nowcast until those storms bowed in NY.

Holy That’s incredible

Great show. Wind was strongest early. It was shaking the car at one point. Tree tops swaying.

Tremendous light show to my west.

PDS severe warning in central PA The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Lackawanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Central Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 617 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mountain Top, or 11 miles north of Hazleton, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Ashley, Bear Creek, Dorrance, Slocum, Preston, Sugar Notch, Nuangola, Warrior Run, Laurel Run, and Lehigh. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across central and southern Luzerne. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

The storms west are taking shape and have produced some wind reports.

Not sure—with any of these really. It’s all about the environment once they develop.

If it’s in the MDR, mog hard lol

Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days.

I just think Climo will keep 94L & 95L in check a bit. Maybe enough to get a name, but not enough to become a major hurricane. Shear or at the very least trade winds will probably be a factor in the Caribbean. Today’s runs on 95L were interesting though. Debby probably arrives late July/early August. All speculation of course.

Well this place is active I feel Debby

Yikes. Happy Hour in Europe.

Wheeee

Derecho incoming?

Where do you see that?

Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat.

I’ve missed a microburst in Albany and two supercells over my house in the last week. I’ve cornered the market on pain.

There’s a real robust signal on the EPS and GEFS for something to pop with that second MDR wave next week.