WxWatcher007

Here’s the first wave of the season. GFS plays with it in the long range. It’s quite sharp which is unusual but obviously unlikely to develop. Watch the MJO mid-June though.

First wave of the season is pretty sharp. Not likely to amount to much but interesting to look at.

I think it’s been fairly active in recent years, we just haven’t had a hurricane or truly classic pattern outside maybe Isaias. Obviously not the bunches you talk about though in a single season. Atlantic Canada has been really hot as well recently. I can’t imagine a ‘54 like season. That was insane.

Just a fantastic day.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. Another follower in the area (also on that post) reported trees down on three sides of their property in a circular fashion. Some intense stuff either way.

You’re right about a lot needing to go right for 20+. I think the trend the last few years and the extraordinary base state of the basin this season would have me shocked if it didn’t happen. Of course, we know a fair number of NS end up debatable anyway. It’s the H and MH numbers for me. The key question IMO is whether an active WAM causes a feedback of strong SAL bursts that reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic. If not, I think we threaten records. Even if it does, I’d be surprised if this isn’t a top 10 season for activity.

It took a while to compile. All from Griswold. Look at the very first video (top left). It’s insane.

Oh it was legit out there. Let me see if I can upload one of the videos.

It’s an excellent night. Feels great outside with some nice cumulus adding to the sunset. I know we kid but the time period mid June might be conditionally favorable for our first legit spin up looking at long range. Fits climo too. Got a number of follower pics and videos showing legit severe. It’s been eastern CT’s season so far lol.

Ineedsnow is that you??

Man, Providence got crushed. Manhole covers blown into the sky by the water

Good to hear from you. Hope all is well.

RI getting crushed

Most of the big factors for a hyperactive season seem baked in, but I suppose a fail mode could be wave breaking imparting shear frequently during peak season. Similar to what we saw a few years ago. That said, I think that’s unlikely.

At least tropical is producing

Yup. May 23rd… Extreme warmth both in extent and depth across the basin, classic AMO, patterns reinforcing weaker trades, and a coming Nina to abate shear. It’s definitely time to think big about 2024.

No surprise

Yeah the stuff out there looks solid

Good storms to my north, south, east, and west this season

Watch that storm near Brewster. Interesting velocities.

Would’ve been better if this held off until afternoon imo but that’s New England “severe” for ya.

High res looks active here in CT even as early as tomorrow morning, but not sure I see a legit severe threat tomorrow, especially if there’s early morning junk. HRRR goes wild though.