WxWatcher007

This was when I went to sleep lol.

Didn’t expect the presentation this morning based on how it looked last night.

GFS op moved toward the Caribbean graveyard route. I’m really just in wait and see mode.

Definitely a lot of haves and have nots. Even with little rain, my solar production has been abysmal for June. A lot of clouds (and smoke) and nothing to show for it other than browning grass.

We’ve been talking about a wetter pattern, and I have .46” of rain this month. I’m deeply skeptical much changes.

A slight pullback on the intensity forecast, but still noting high uncertainty. Development of a robust inner core will be critical for long term survival. Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023 This evening, Bret's structure on satellite has evolved from a curved banding pattern to a growing central dense overcast near the estimated center. The exact location of the center is tricky to pinpoint though, most likely positioned just west of the deepest central convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35-kt at 00 UTC, 37-kt from UW-CIMSS, and unfortunately there have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes this evening. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the majority of the available data. The initial motion appears to be just north of due west at 275/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge that is currently positioned overhead of Bret will initially follow along with the cyclone, maintaining a west or north of due west heading for the next 48-72 hours. As the system approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to amplify somewhat, with the vertical depth of Bret likely to influence its future track. Once again there is a large spread in both along and cross track model predictions, with the ECMWF on the south and west end, and the GFS and some of the strongest hurricane regional models (HWRF, HAFS-A) on the north and east end. The consensus aids have shifted ever so slightly south and west from the previous forecast cycle, and the NHC track will follow suit, especially beyond 60-h. However, there continues to be larger than normal uncertainty in the track forecast given the large spread of the guidance suite. In the short-term, environmental conditions remain quite favorable for additional intensification, with shear remaining under 10-kt, and ample mid-level moisture and anomalously warm SSTs maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, steady intensification seems likely for the next day or so. However, between 36-60 h, mid-level moisture begins to markedly decrease along Bret's forecast track, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest mid-level northwesterly shear may begin to undercut the more favorable upper-level easterlies. This is where the intensity forecast becomes tricky, since a more vertically coherent system could be more resilient against these less favorable conditions versus one that remains less aligned and more susceptible to dry air intrusion. The intensity guidance also diverges over this time frame, with some of the regional hurricane guidance showing continued intensification, compared to leveling off from the global model guidance. The latest NHC forecast is a bit more conservative at this time frame, but still shows a peak intensity at hurricane intensity between 48-60 h. Thereafter, even drier air and additional shear is likely to begin a weakening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit more weakening than the previous cycle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 11.4N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

No (edit: current) intensity change at 11pm.

Despite the slightly warming cloud tops recently, Bret has continued to organize nicely this evening. We have a CDO and periodic hot towers attempting to rotate around the center. At 5pm, the NHC noted that the LLC was on the NW edge of the deeper convection. I don't have a microwave image, and that would certainly be telling. At any rate, it's looking dramatically better than it did 24 hours ago.

Yup. Wonky lol

Knew a wonky happy hour run was coming at 162 with that GL trough, Cindy (93L) and Bret sandwiched in the middle.

I really am starting to think the MDR being open like this may be an early signal of a more active season. It’s not just that much of the basin is historically warm…the TUTT is displaced northward and with this early wave train we are seeing no issues with stability and SAL like past years. To get one TC is historic for this time of year, the guidance is trending toward multiple TC genesis opportunities in the next 10-14 days.

I don’t think it’ll get that far west, but I was saying in the Mid-Atlantic thread that I like Elsa as an early analog. I think there will be shear, but the euro is too aggressive tearing it apart and driving it due west into the Caribbean. IMO.

GFS is going to be wonky but that’s an upper lever pattern that suggests a close approach at least should the Great Lakes trough cut off, which has been a theme of the season over the eastern US.

It’s an aggressive opening bid, particularly for the Caribbean portion. I thought it would make it to the islands as a minimal cane, but get blown to bits by shear afterward. That said, we have numerous examples of TCs in this basin recently that were either resilient in the face of shear due to sound structure, or exceeded initial expectations to an extent because of shear intensity/vector forecasts missing. Hopefully with a well defined LLC now we can get some kind of convergence on guidance in subsequent suites.

Should be there at 5pm

We all have our vices.

Pretty divergent solutions still on track and intensity. Looking at TD 3 though, it’s continuing to organize at a modest pace.

Elsa feels like an early analog, but not sure what this’ll look like by the time it gets to the islands.

NHC tossed both the euro and gfs op forecasts on this first map. That’s not boring @NorthArlington101

Hmm. The long range shear forecast is critical for intensity, and possible track.

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023 Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave over the central Atlantic has become better organized this morning. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery shows that the center has become well defined near a developing central dense overcast with prominent convective banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, based on Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and recent satellite trends indicate this system is close to tropical-storm status. The initial motion estimate is 275/18 kt, a bit uncertain because the center has just recently become trackable. A large ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause the depression to move westward over the next several days. As the system nears the Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should weaken, causing the system to move more toward the west-northwest. However, there is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the cyclone. A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more westward into the Caribbean. For now, this forecast lies near the model consensus, and adjustments are likely in future advisories. This should be considered a low confidence track forecast since this type of forecast situation can result in large errors. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the depression's path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear. This should promote strengthening through midweek. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough. Thus the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end of the forecast, consistent with the middle of the guidance envelope. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain than normal, due to the differences in the model suite, along with the aclimatological nature of this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 11.0N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Kelly

We’re about to find out the NHC’s first thoughts on track and intensity. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say the first forecast would bring it to the northern Lesser Antilles as a 65kt system.

Oh it’s very strange. This is probably more for the tropical thread, but originally I thought the pattern (with a propagating CCKW) would set the EPAC off first. Crickets so far there. I’m not sold yet, but we may be seeing the first signs that the historically warm basin is screwing up how the Atlantic shear profile looks in what we would normally see in a strengthening niño. I mean this isn’t what I’d expect to see for the last half of June into July. Especially not in this ENSO profile. I think the other critical thing that’s being overlooked is that unlike past years—even the active ones—we are seeing far less stability issues and more moisture in the MDR as SAL has been anomalously low when it would be peaking climatologically. That’s a huge red flag to me.

Historic severe in the south…MDR lighting up like a Christmas tree…can’t buy a storm here yet

I’m not quite on board with believing this has implications for the rest of the season, but it’s increasingly hard not to wonder if the extraordinarily warm Atlantic is helping the atmospheric environment in the basin minimize the impact of the growing niño. If the niño fails to produce the typically high wind shear we see in the Atlantic, there’s no reason to believe that the season overall will be below normal.