WxWatcher007

Sorry to hear it. Prayers for a speedy and full recovery.

It’s catching on

Long duration heat on the Euro. Looks like scattered storms on the big heat day Friday?

12z Euro is fairly aggressive too but doesn’t quite close the SW Atlantic disturbance off fully. Takes it south over Florida then back over the Gulf and into Louisiana as the massive ridge flexes next week. Weak system verbatim but interesting nonetheless.

Did inflation hit dew points too? I grew up with 70°+ dews being considered oppressive.

90L couldn’t get it done in the face of absurd shear, but the BoC now has 50% odds and will likely bring heavy rain to the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, the SW Atlantic idea has picked up some steam. That may be one to watch in the shorter term if something can in fact break off the trough. That…might be worth a lemon IMO.

Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. That’d be of interest, @GaWx 06z Euro 12z GFS It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time.

Yeah whatever happens in the BoC it looks like the firehose moves from Florida to the rest of the Gulf. Really unsure what’ll develop with this CAG pattern. Models struggled with 90L even in the short range and this Gulf/Caribbean setup is more complex. Still think the BoC, secondary Gulf development, and SW Atlantic (Euro operational wants to sharpen something near the coast) are the areas to watch.

I was wondering the same thing lol GYX gone wild?

.44” on the month.

Down to 10% odds for 90L Up to 50% odds for the BoC

Recon is canceled today, and despite a pretty well defined low level circulation there needs to be more convection (I know you know this). Shear is dropping and it’s over the Gulf Stream, so while the window for genesis is closing it’s still open for now.

That’s what I’m thinking. That’ll be an interesting insurance claim.

That’s helpful, thanks. So basically: 1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95. 2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it. This is a snapshot of Wednesday. Obviously the nuclear 850s in the desert SW would moderate our way but we need ~22-25°C for the big temps and can get them on our historic days. 3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. 4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps?

105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier)

Where does that rank historically?

Just seeing both ensembles with a mean 597 overhead in June is incredible. How likely would it be that the ridge is significantly weaker in amplitude?

WPC placed the area in rapid drought onset risk. Didn’t know that was a thing.

Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100.

GFS is an absolute furnace next week.

BDL will put up a 90 today. HFD at 84 currently and my house is 83.2° after a high of 85.

Euro pretty aggressive with 90L and the BoC potential. Has 90L a TC tomorrow and develops a quick hitter in the BoC a few days from now.

Pseudo PRE?