WxWatcher007

00z GFS significantly weakens Beryl but is a little further north for a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday afternoon, a Yucatán landfall (also weak) Friday morning, and a further north track into south Texas (also weak) late Sunday. A good illustration of how much uncertainty there is later this week.

Down to ~936mb per dropsonde

What’s more impressive though, is that SAL to the north and an anomalously low wind shear environment allowed Beryl to blow through climatology and the historical record. It’s amazing on numerous levels. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Pressure still dropping. Recon just had a pass with an extrapolated 934.9mb.

When your basin looks like this, it’s definitely September.

I mean what can be said. That’s absurd lol.

Beryl is now the first category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.8°N 64.9°WMoving: WNW at 22 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 160 mph

First hurricane, on July 1, in this part of the basin. It’s already extraordinary but that feat would be astonishingly impressive.

What was the WAM in 2007? I think the combination of extraordinary warmth/depth in the basin with a more classic AMO, WAM, and building Nina is going to give us plenty of high end activity. My only hesitation at this point is the continuation of vigorous waves pushing anomalously high SAL through the eastern MDR, triggering more stability issues than initially thought.

Even without functioning SFMR I think there’s enough evidence to upgrade to a 5, which is just unreal for that area of the basin on July 1.

Calling attention to both Lowry’s analysis and the TDR data.

8:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.4°N 64.0°WMoving: WNW at 21 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 155 mph

I would’ve expected higher SFMR in that NE quadrant given the FL winds, but no dice. I feel like we say we wish we had recon during a number of peaks since 2017. Not shot at recon of course, they have schedules and protocols to follow.

937.3mb extrapolated on that pass 139kt, 149kt, 151kt FL readings

I’ve never understood that either.

Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement.

I think at this stage it’s good to focus on ensembles for longer range track or looking at the cluster of reliable operational models. NAVGEM is not on that list imo. I’m particularly a fan of the “super ensemble” that combines the ensembles from major guidance. It doesn’t mean it’ll be right, as @wxmx and others have pointed out there are still important things to resolve in that medium to longer range, but it’s a really helpful place to start. For folks that want access to the graphics above, here’s the site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

Thanks, everyone. I’ll pull the post down since it’s inaccurate.

Looks like HAFS-B had the right idea.

Beryl is a truly extraordinary system. May make a run at category 5.

945.1mb extrapolated on that latest pass

Absolutely incredible. July 1. In the MDR.

We’ve also seen instances where SFMR are discounted at extremely high speeds, or found to be more instantaneous than sustained. Not saying that’s the case here but we’ve seen it before on our high end storms.

The consensus for this one really came apart in the last day