WxWatcher007

Wiz is down on it.

I agree that storm mode did look mostly messy, and that’s what happened for the most part. Also agree about parameters. They look pretty and can be valuable, but it doesn’t replace a fundamental understanding of the environment itself.

I hear you. I don’t think I saw the SPC or local news go over the top with this. I think a lot of the general public expects imby precision that just isn’t possible. I don’t know how we get over that communication gap, but I think that’s a big piece of it. I am a believer of only using extreme language in extreme events but your “chance of a tornado” example isn’t a case of that. If there’s a tornado risk albeit small, how do you leave that out of a forecast? Usually what I do is try to explain the SPC percentages. People tend to get that. For example, there’s a risk, but it’s 2%. There’s a greater chance of wind damage so let’s focus on that. If I need to explain more I do. If I see something that enhances or mitigates a risk I (usually) say it.

Opening bid—subject to change 28/13/6

OKC ASOS gusted to 69mph. Just outside of the PDS severe warning. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kokc#

A number of tornado warnings in Missouri right now as well

PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman?

With the warning issued I hope everyone in Barnsdall was able to seek shelter in time.

I know most discussion has been OK and KS but three Tor warnings up north of Sioux Falls as well along the convective line.

IIRC, ‘98 was the mod risk day? Was 2011 a slight risk? Not as familiar with our severe history but what a monster.

One day we’ll get a high risk here…and folks will be calling bust by 10am as usual.

It’s big time. Everything does seem lined up for a big season. The only caveat I’ll add is that we probably need to see decent early season activity in NS and maybe H to be in line for a highest end season. This is probably a long season through October/early November though.

We’re moving through May now, and the Euro forecast is about as aggressive as you can get for the season. I expect us to be looking meaningfully at pre/early season TC genesis opportunities in a few weeks.

Flood of yore

lol I thought it was a wing

This is incredible to witness on radar.

INCREDIBLE storms in Oklahoma right now. I think the area started the day with no tornado risk.

Actually a nice light show. @weatherwiz just an big time PDS warned TOR tonight. I’ve never seen one U-turn like this… Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 1002 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...WEST CENTRAL COTTON AND EAST CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTIES... At 1002 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles north of Loveland, moving east at 10 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Awful resolution but look at the TDS ETA: for the uninitiated—this is absolutely extraordinary

First thunder of the season.

Historically wet winter, spring, and summer?

We’ve seen weaker velocity signals

Real nice pop up down near SW CT.