WxWatcher007

Posting text as well Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is also showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system continues moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

Up to 70% odds now with the first recon mission of the year about to begin.

Barely any shear on the soundings lol

What are you thinking about tomorrow here?

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has arrived, and we have our first orange of the season in Invest 91L. Overnight we saw a little more organization, with pressure falls and persistent convection near a center of circulation. This led to the odds of development being raised this morning by the NHC. Satellite and radar still show that there are headwinds for tropical cyclone genesis, as westerly shear has convection lopsided on the eastern side of the system. It should be noted that it's June 1st lol, so most tropical this time of year is near the coast and often "slop". That said, recon is scheduled for today and tomorrow, the real window of development before the conditions become much more unfavorable. For those that are new to the tropical subforum--we use these threads to separate discussion for distinct areas of interests and named systems. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2023 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Margot MAR-go Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert ger Sean shawn Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tya This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi/Brown

Here we go? 91L actually looks much more organized this morning, with a center trying to tuck under persistent convection looking at visible and IR. Up to 50% odds now by the NHC. Looks like a recon flight is warranted if this continues.

A new season is upon us. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have become a little more concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern or eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on later today, if necessary. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2023 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Margot MAR-go Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert gert Sean shawn Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tya This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. Forecaster Beven

Really hope a good rainy period puts an end to the fires there.

We’ll take. MDW was just about perfect.

Whatever you do, don’t end up in a precip hole like @EastCoast NPZ or torchy low elevation spot for snow. I need a good place to chase when the next region wide blizzard arrives

The broad low in the Gulf has been designated Invest 91L. No change in development odds, unsurprisingly. Recon has been scheduled for tomorrow and Friday, though I think they’ll cancel Thursday unless there’s some modest organization overnight/early tomorrow.

What a link. There was a F2 that went 43.9 miles through CT and ended in my town on August 21, 1951. Nine injuries and 250k in property damage.

I've been working nonstop lately. I missed that conversation. The build up to that must have been crazy. I may just be crazy unlucky (or lucky) but I can only recall hail twice imby. Once in DC where I literally ran out the door when I saw it falling, and the other here in CT during thundersleet on 12/30/19.

I am too young to remember this personally, but it’s not surprising central CT couldn’t muster high end severe during one of the benchmark severe events in New England. I’m mostly kidding..

It looks like for the first time in nearly a decade we won’t have a preseason storm in May. That said, the NHC has designated an area in the Gulf with a lemon for 10/20% odds of development. Environment looks marginal at best with high shear and dry air nearby, but the last two cycles of the Euro have been fairly bullish. More than usual for weak TC or STC genesis. Worth a casual eye, especially if convection can consistently fire enough to spawn a surface low.

Have you started drinking 40s again?

That’s crazy.

The smoke from at least one fire shows up incredibly clear on GOES-E. The video here is incredible.

Got some good work in yesterday. Maybe I should consider converting some of the backyard into a real garden. The soil would probably be great for something with the moist soil.

It’s about that time.

Fantastic day. Fantastic weekend. High of 82.8 here today.

185mph/897mb

That’s it. The high and mod days where the risk is relatively confined geographically is where you probably get the most convergence. I’ve gone out twice and while I wasn’t lucky enough to get the high end wedges lol I’ve gone to plenty of under the radar setups and gotten good stuff with not a lot of folks around. Edit: and also, like my early tropical chases, the practice is worth it in itself for me.

Thanks. Unfortunately, my neighbor could have used this advice.