WxWatcher007

How did you get into this field? Was it always an interest for you?

Euro tries to tighten up close to the northern Gulf coast, so it continues to be a signal worth watching. Still quite weak even if there’s organization. This is at 850mb. At the end of the run it also bites on that secondary signal I’ve been mentioning in the BoC. Nothing to take verbatim, but it signals that there may be a longer window of favorable TC genesis in the homebrew region.

I can’t find an average OHC map for the date, but I do have the anomaly plot. Current OHC Anomaly MDR anomaly comparison to other years

I came across this a few weeks ago and it’s a fantastic reference point.

Normally at this time of year I’d favor the EPAC because of climatology, but this setup looks to favor (using that term loosely) the Gulf. Shear looks too strong in the EPAC and the focal point of moisture is ejected from the Caribbean into the Gulf. There are some GEFS lows tucked along the Mexico coast, but the signal over the Gulf is unimpeded and far stronger, even on the EPS now. It should be underscored for the lurkers watching however—right now anything that develops is likely to be broad and weak and likely kept in check by the shear anomalies over the Gulf. Rain would be the primary concern here. I’m also intrigued by that second signal the week of the 17th but that’s way out there for now.

Ha, I was just looking at SSTs/OHC for the Gulf potential and noticed our region. It’s crazy. Even for our relatively cold neck of the woods it’s a blowtorch. All in about a month too…

Obscene warmth

I just looked at the EPS and GEFS ensembles and both are interesting. Especially the idea on both that the CAG leads to multiple opportunities for TC genesis. Different dates but as we’ve already seen the Euro is slow on the take with CAG. Normally I’d balk at something like that but obviously the Caribbean is as favorable as it gets thermodynamically and we should have a favorable (for genesis) MJO/CCKW later in the month. But this warmth is obscene for early June.

I think the Gulf signal is becoming increasingly real. Even if the result is an early season lopsided low. I was just saying I’d pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf. Looking at the ensembles too, it looks like the CAG could produce multiple opportunities…

I’d agree that was the case with some of the earlier GFS runs, but now verbatim it looks pretty broad and lopsided imo. That said, some of the models have tried to tighten it up some as it gets close to land, which isn’t surprising. Also of interest is how the GFS and Canadian kind of try to eject multiple impulses from the CAG into the Gulf, which could lead to genesis off the SE coast. I’m not sure how real that is lol I’d be tempted to pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf honestly. I think the Gulf signal for something is real.

Yeah, I still wouldn’t rule out some broad low trying to develop in the Gulf next week. Each model has a signal now to varying degrees.

I suppose I’d be much more engaged and would probably spray my backyard if I had kids, but I try not to disturb nature more than necessary. The front lawn gets cut of course, but I don’t use any chemicals. It was a mess when I bought the house and I manually turned over the lawn/removed weeds. Backyard is a constant battle and it’s not even a large plot. I have 9 trees on it, and the hilly “terrain” turns the bottom open portion of it into a bog at times. But the grass is always…and I mean always growing. I’ve been out of town and whenever I return it’s possible some of the grasses will be 4+ ft high. It’s nuts. I’d like to convert that to a large pollinator garden. Just have to find the time. For whatever reason I’ve always been extra careful about ticks. I only do yard work in long pants and socks, I check myself whenever I finish, and shower/scrub as immediately as I can after coming in. It’s worked so far *knocks wood*

It’s cute on radar with a well defined mesolow circulation, but nothing that stands out in eastern NY yet with these storms.

I’ve been watching it the last few days and posted in the MA thread. It’s certainly true the GFS/GEFS tends to inject way too much vorticity into these basins that becomes a seed for phantom TC genesis. That may very well be the case here too. That said, with the moisture setup in the Gulf next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of weak, lopsided, and broad low try to develop. The Euro has hinted at that too, albeit sporadically. Either way, a lot of rain possible in FL next week.

RI has been getting a boatload of rain lately

To your point

This is incredible

Some really big time rain totals today.

FWIW

That’s incredible

Insane day down there. My friend was a maybe a mile or two away from a direct hit on that PDS warning.

PDS tor warning down there now. It’s always the sneaky days.

Always watch the sneaky days… Stay safe down there, everyone.

Not that different from us when you think about it. Our genes can make us more or less susceptible to a wide range of things. Crazy how the tiniest things run the world (and universe). The warmth inside was getting pretty high, but it was the pollen that put me over the top. Kev’s not way off about the open windows letting a lot of pollen through.