WxWatcher007

I went down the rabbit hole Truly strange world

Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then.

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here… In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend.

90L is developed pretty aggressively again on the 12z Euro. Even our friends in Atlantic Canada may need to watch for an unusually strong post-tropical (if it even develops) system based on this track. As for the BoC, I guess we’ll see. The ridge next week is absolutely massive, but any weakening could certainly allow for moisture further north. Mexico desperately needs the rain.

Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window.

Second area I highlighted in the Bay of Campeche is now given a lemon by the NHC. That area has a real good shot of producing a NS imo.

That was really incredible. Everything we tried to do outside got washed out. What made it all the more anomalous was that none of it had to do with a tropical system or its remnants.

Siesta Key and Sarasota really under the gun as convection continues to fire and get sheared east of the apparent low pressure center.

The area I highlighted a few hours ago is actually pretty robust now. Just very small and right offshore.

90L will have a narrow chance for weak development off the SE coast, but the signal for something in the BoC has grown a bit since my post yesterday. Not a bad look on the ensembles. Edit: adding EPS

LOL this place cracks me tf up

Despite the shear pushing the convection away (preventing any significant organization), there’s a pretty solid low level spin just SW of Tampa. You can see it on radar and visible imagery.

No surprise, but the shear is just absurd across the much of the western Atlantic.

Look at that anomaly up the coast..

Makes me feel good when an area I tag early eventually gets highlighted by the NHC lol. 90L is getting sheared terribly but the convection is quite strong. Some of the high res guidance is ugly in the coming days with regard to rainfall.

Well we got the lemon and invest.

I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening. -Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. Let's turn to three areas. 1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. EPS GEFS This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 2) BoC Low (6-9 Days) This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now.

I can imagine a table in the back with Ray, Dryslot, Kev, and ineedsnow getting ready to brawl depending on what a winter Euro run paints as the jackpot zone, the cops getting called, and @MJO812 lining em up against the wall and throwing them in the back of the paddy wagon while mumbling “I’ll be damned if these New Englanders think they’ll steal my snow.”

Bring it. Every season lol. People complain, and then people complain about the complaining. I’m pushed to the limit when we do the morality debates during tropical season.

@GaWx similar to the Ukmet? Also, look at the EPAC signal now. Interesting.

Heh, suddenly the Euro wants to develop something (sub)tropical off the SE coast in the next few days. Stays offshore. Just kind of speaks to this nebulous signal over the next ten days or so. 72 120

YESSIRRR LFG

In summer hibernation.