WxWatcher007

Ok, so normally we wouldn't have threads for current low probability systems, but I guess we're changing that this year. This comes from my bigger overview, which highlights this area of interest. I've been quietly watching for days, and now it's worth discussion. This area of potential has been much more interesting than 95L, and has been for a while now for the reasons below. Yesterday most probably sat up as the happy hour GFS showed a strong system attempt to develop in the wake of 95L off the same frontal boundary, this time getting shunted back into the US. Well, although that run of the GFS was way too aggressive, the signal for some sort of follow up development has been on the guidance for a few days now. It's not terribly hard to see why, as the environment looks at least marginally favorable for some development. Vorticity First--the frontal boundary is usually good for getting some vorticity spin up. This fits with climatology. So if something is far enough off the coast there should be some sort of spin that develops in the coming days. Both models pick up on this in the medium range. This is not enough for TC genesis. Which leads to the second favorable factor. Instability While the tropical Atlantic has been incredibly stable so far this season... There has been no such issue off the East Coast...in fact, instability has been extremely high. What that tells me is that anything that does have spin and can develop an area of low pressure will have a chance to generate convection, which will only help with TC genesis odds as long as the system isn't hugging land the entire time. SSTa Not much analysis needed here. I expect the the southwest Atlantic to be a hotbed of activity this season because that's where the heat is. Any low is going to have a shot with enough time and space to become tropical in this SSTa regime. Shear The key inhibitor here is shear. Often times with these frontal boundary systems near the coast you have shear and drier air that is lurking. That comes with the territory with the frontal boundary. Here it is unclear how favorable a shear environment this potential system will find, but guidance is hinting at a window of lower shear later this week taking hold. What makes this particularly interesting is the steering pattern. While the outcome is different in terms of where the area of vorticity goes, the pattern evolution is the same. In the wake of 95L a ridge builds in and traps whatever could develop along the coast. That's something to legitimately watch. Maybe not closely, yet, but at least with a casual eye.

3.0 in northern NJ https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000qxsb/executive

Yeah. Slower outcome, warmer water, probably less shear, more time to consolidate, which it would need to have a chance. I agree with that.

This isn’t a way that we get tropical up here, so we’re talking about low odds stuff to begin with. And Chantal aside it’s been hard to get TCG off the EC this year. So it’s worth a casual eye but happy hour is happy hour for a reason.

The boundary off the EC that has allowed the current lemon to develop doesn’t really go anywhere, and it opens the door for a secondary area of vorticity to develop and get trapped along the coast. GFS and Euro have hinted at that potential the last few days but obviously nothing that strong.

I still think 1-2 TCs before August 20, but I’m increasingly bullish for my peak season forecast (again).

He’s not wrong about the general steering potential. A US landfall pattern has been there much of the summer, just haven’t had the activity. Don’t need Webb to see it. Once tropical waves start surviving the trek across the more stable tropical Atlantic and reach the SW Atlantic, there will be landfalls.

https://www.newsweek.com/radioactive-wasps-found-former-south-carolina-nuclear-bomb-site-2106827

Really nice evening out here now.

Get ready.

Yeah, it’s pretty humid out here

Rampant drunkenness in here today lol. Mod excessive rainfall risk extended into SW CT

The PMM on today’s HREF was quite impressive. Interested to see if 00z ramps up.

Somebody tomorrow is getting poured on. I think it’s SW CT into NJ but it’ll be interesting for a bit.

I could use the rain

WPC is tempted to issue a mod risk somewhere in the rainfall zone

Can’t make it up Deleted my duplicate post.

98° at home

We wait for winter to return from its near decade long absence with open arms.

High of 93 at home but I’m in DC the next few days…

Yeah I think we’re far from a lock, but whenever I see a setup like this in the middle of summer it’s worth taking note. The moisture feed looks impressive.

Euro not backing down for Thursday/Friday.

Agree with all that. SE CT stole my storms. Get ready for the rains.

I had 3K here the other day and could only manage a gusty shower!