WxWatcher007

This is probably the worst I’ve seen.

Ugly, ugly day. Can barely see Hartford.

Long way to go to get here as anything decent.

That area does nicely for severe

Hail signal looked pretty good after my post.

Cell down near the SW CT border looks juicy

Good luck

I do think this is one of Canada’s worst wildfire seasons in recent memory. I mean, I can’t recall the extent of wildfires this early in eastern Canada.

Gotta love the fantasy GFS activity. Red meat for the tropical weenies.

I’m a tropical weenie. I’ll always try to get a little technical lol.

CAG season is probably a 2-3 weeks away in that region. Probably will have a window then. Not a lot of high end stuff tends to come from June CAGs, but the Caribbean is even more of a torch than usual.

Does anyone remember this many smoky intrusions this early in the year?

<tropical weenie raises hand>

This season is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I wouldn’t buy what the Euro seasonal is selling verbatim. Last year it was terrible, and we see a rapidly developing Niño. I think this probably caps activity should ENSO continue on this pace, as we get a higher end moderate Nino by the peak of the season. There’s really a lot to unpack, but here are some initial thoughts on why there’s so much uncertainty: 1. The Atlantic is outrageously warm It’s actually extraordinary how consistent the warming has been. Here’s a 90 day SST anomaly. Note the Nino developing and the simultaneous scale of warming anomalies throughout the Atlantic basin. Speaking to the depth, it’s exceptionally expansive for this time of year, particularly in the MDR (including the Caribbean. 2. The +AMO The continuation of the active cycle of the AMO also heightens risk. The AMO itself heightens the atmospheric conditions necessary for activity, but as we saw last year, it only takes you so far. 3. Instability (or lack thereof) The combination of SAL outbreaks (which are normal to an extent) and instability will be critical to the kind of season we have. In recent years, stability in the eastern MDR has dramatically limited development, forcing TC genesis toward the Caribbean and homebrew areas of the Gulf and SE coast. With the Nino likely to increase shear, especially in the Caribbean, if the eastern MDR can’t destabilize, the Caribbean shredder could make this a quiet season. It’ll be interesting to see how the early activity off Africa handles the environment. 4. Shear location What the varying forecasts on the season tell me is that this is a thread the needle season. There’s no more important factor in the impact on the Antilles and US than shear location. With a niño we’re likely to see activity further east, with a general recurve pattern. However, there are likely to be windows for closer development, and if general trades are weaker and/or TUTT and wave breaking activity is further north than anticipated, watch out. That’s impossible to tell at this stage. For now, the Atlantic looks quiet, but it may be worth watching in two-three weeks as the GFS ensemble show a potential CAG pattern setting up. You’d expect to see the EPAC spark up first and then see a development window transition to the western Atlantic.

DCA: 98 IAD: 97 BWI: 99 RIC: 99

Tomorrow doesn’t look half bad for a few hailers. Would love to have another stormy afternoon.

Still haven’t installed the window unit upstairs. Did have to put in the portable AC downstairs for Thursday and Friday for the other people living here lol.

Don’t worry, you’ll have plenty of it next January.

54.1°

I think it was close enough yesterday. Just happens to be typical early season slop. Interesting that it developed in the coolest part of the Gulf.

Not the most successful day, but still got a few wins.

Even odds the stuff near Springfield/BDL dries up before reaching me. God, I sound like TBlizz.

It’s insanely hard, and deeply frustrating as a result. Between the trees, local road network, and interstate traffic, it’s awful. I’ve been able to get ahead of some in the past by doing what you mentioned, but that’s the exception to the rule. Had these storms developed west, I would have had a couple of good viewing spots nearby. Oh well. I’m just bored.

Very frustrated. Tried to chase the cell that popped just to my south because it looked promising, but could never get where I needed to be. My area just sucks for anything interesting. It is what it is.