WxWatcher007

Oh but wait, there's a nice convective flare-up over the LLC to give it a little more life for tonight... lol Going out with a bang

Sun back out lol

Rain here! .01”

The operational GFS and now the Euro bring Cindy back from the dead as it curves northward and interacts with an approaching trough.

The end is near for Bret as the Caribbean prepares to add another name to its graveyard.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with the area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. If this trend continues, a tropical depression could form as early as later this morning while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Shame we couldn’t get another pass. This one is close and recon has been great at observing the real-time structural changes, that could all be undercut by shear before the next flight.

VDM suggests that this is very near if not already at hurricane status. 996mb with peak FL and SFMR obs over 64kts. Perhaps most notable is the first appearance of a partial eyewall.

Perhaps some over performance tonight by Bret? Numerous 60+ kt unflagged SFMR in the latest obs. Should be noted that FL winds don’t mirror hurricane force in this specific set of obs.

Even better look per recon. Just saw a big extrapolated pressure drop, waiting for the dropsonde.

Wow, I had no idea. So your peak heat climo is June?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 18:47ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: BretStorm Number & Year: 03 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:25:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.25N 53.43WB. Center Fix Location: 416 statute miles (669 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,441m (4,728ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 18:11:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 117° at 59kts (From the ESE at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix at 18:10:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 31kts (35.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix at 18:33:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 289° at 26kts (From the WNW at 29.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix at 18:30:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 18:10:30Z

High rain rate with the observations, but FL winds of 59kts and a few 55kt SFMR readings on the NE to SW pass. No real pressure fall though on the center pass.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:37ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: BretStorm Number & Year: 03 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 16:55:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.21N 53.12WB. Center Fix Location: 436 statute miles (702 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,436m (4,711ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 2kts (From the SSW at 2mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 16:51:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 59kts (From between the ENE and E at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix at 16:31:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36kts (41.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SSE (155°) of center fix at 16:58:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 197° at 42kts (From the SSW at 48.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 17:08:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NW (322°) from the flight level center at 16:31:30Z

Recon doing its thing right now.

Six months LATE

Haven’t installed yet.

Bret is trying to organize again despite the influence of mid level shear. We’ll see if that trend continues enough to develop an inner core.

I need rain

Nice convective burst right over the center in recent hours. Needs to hold for meaningful organization and eventual intensification.

Shear took a tremendous toll on Bret overnight despite an earlier organizational trend. Euro may have a victory with the long term forecast.

Not so much now with an exposed center.