WxWatcher007

That was my thought originally too…that it’d take until Sunday or Monday for the break to occur, but I suppose we’re trending toward a shorter technical heat wave for now.

Obviously unlikely

GFS gone wild but it basically spins up everything from the CAG.

Yeah it’s one of those things where I truly love the balance the seasons provide. Climate stuff aside we still have four distinct times of year and of course daylight length ebbs and flows. It’s ok to appreciate the moment you’re in. What do you make of this discrepancy? Do you think temperatures over or underperforming today speak to the rest of the week as the ridge continues to build? Caveats about clouds, etc., aside?

Imagine having hours and hours of evening sunshine and warm temps outside and longing for the months long soul crushing period of chasing phantom snowstorms and having just enough cold for the mix line to reach Portland rather than Quebec City.

The 1930s were really an extraordinary period. It’s hard to imagine, especially in the context of no air conditioning and the Great Depression.

Just started a thread. Here's 12z Euro through 90.

We have our first cherry of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season due to a growing signal for tropical genesis in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf. This soon to be invest comes from a monsoon gyre/CAG that has been in place over the Caribbean for a while now. With a large area of vorticity/disturbed weather over Central America/Yucatan, a broad low is expected to develop and move toward the coast. It's still unclear how far north the actual center goes, or how quickly something spins up, but the setup for heavy rain over Texas and much of the Gulf Coast is pronounced. As you can see below, life-threatening flash flooding is possible/occurring in Mexico (let's not forget about friends like @wxmx) and Central America. As for wind, the threat seems relatively low as rain is likely to be the predominant and most widespread impact, but we'll of course have to watch for how any broad low tightens up. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Where does this love come from?

I’m being totally hyperbolic, and mostly sarcastic, but it’s a shame that the Euro model of today borders on worthless in advance of some high impact events.

Between the BoC and SW Atlantic next week is shaping up to be active.

Pretty active even in the absence of a TC. While the BoC potential already heightens the risk of significant flooding, the GFS runs today have been concerning. Maybe it’s overdone, but it wasn’t last week with the Florida atmospheric river iirc. WPC forecast 00z GFS Given the guidance and CAG source region, I don’t think a major wind spin up is likely. But with the Caribbean firehose being pointed at the Gulf coast this could be a significant event wherever the hose lands. For the SW Atlantic potential, that’s starting to look legitimate with more run to run and cross guidance consistency. Shear and dry air may be the chief inhibitors there.

Wow—I should probably know this but what makes the site so much different? Out of the city itself?

There it is Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Blake

I don’t think there’s anything that connects this potential system with 90L other than being on the same trough. It’s an interesting signal though, and one that’s trying to coalesce at relatively short range. I highlighted the potential back on the 10th. Would be interesting to see a stifling heat wave north and TC genesis south because of the same ridge.

My very first thought on that run was “well this is about the least favored spot climatologically” Agree it’s nothing to be concerned with yet—especially given how the models struggled at short range with 90L. Just an interesting little signal. I think it’s worth a 10-20% lemon at this stage but we’ll see.

Sorry to hear it. Prayers for a speedy and full recovery.

It’s catching on

Long duration heat on the Euro. Looks like scattered storms on the big heat day Friday?

12z Euro is fairly aggressive too but doesn’t quite close the SW Atlantic disturbance off fully. Takes it south over Florida then back over the Gulf and into Louisiana as the massive ridge flexes next week. Weak system verbatim but interesting nonetheless.

Did inflation hit dew points too? I grew up with 70°+ dews being considered oppressive.

90L couldn’t get it done in the face of absurd shear, but the BoC now has 50% odds and will likely bring heavy rain to the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, the SW Atlantic idea has picked up some steam. That may be one to watch in the shorter term if something can in fact break off the trough. That…might be worth a lemon IMO.