WxWatcher007

I’d agree that was the case with some of the earlier GFS runs, but now verbatim it looks pretty broad and lopsided imo. That said, some of the models have tried to tighten it up some as it gets close to land, which isn’t surprising. Also of interest is how the GFS and Canadian kind of try to eject multiple impulses from the CAG into the Gulf, which could lead to genesis off the SE coast. I’m not sure how real that is lol I’d be tempted to pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf honestly. I think the Gulf signal for something is real.

Yeah, I still wouldn’t rule out some broad low trying to develop in the Gulf next week. Each model has a signal now to varying degrees.

I suppose I’d be much more engaged and would probably spray my backyard if I had kids, but I try not to disturb nature more than necessary. The front lawn gets cut of course, but I don’t use any chemicals. It was a mess when I bought the house and I manually turned over the lawn/removed weeds. Backyard is a constant battle and it’s not even a large plot. I have 9 trees on it, and the hilly “terrain” turns the bottom open portion of it into a bog at times. But the grass is always…and I mean always growing. I’ve been out of town and whenever I return it’s possible some of the grasses will be 4+ ft high. It’s nuts. I’d like to convert that to a large pollinator garden. Just have to find the time. For whatever reason I’ve always been extra careful about ticks. I only do yard work in long pants and socks, I check myself whenever I finish, and shower/scrub as immediately as I can after coming in. It’s worked so far *knocks wood*

It’s cute on radar with a well defined mesolow circulation, but nothing that stands out in eastern NY yet with these storms.

I’ve been watching it the last few days and posted in the MA thread. It’s certainly true the GFS/GEFS tends to inject way too much vorticity into these basins that becomes a seed for phantom TC genesis. That may very well be the case here too. That said, with the moisture setup in the Gulf next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of weak, lopsided, and broad low try to develop. The Euro has hinted at that too, albeit sporadically. Either way, a lot of rain possible in FL next week.

RI has been getting a boatload of rain lately

To your point

This is incredible

Some really big time rain totals today.

FWIW

That’s incredible

Insane day down there. My friend was a maybe a mile or two away from a direct hit on that PDS warning.

PDS tor warning down there now. It’s always the sneaky days.

Always watch the sneaky days… Stay safe down there, everyone.

Not that different from us when you think about it. Our genes can make us more or less susceptible to a wide range of things. Crazy how the tiniest things run the world (and universe). The warmth inside was getting pretty high, but it was the pollen that put me over the top. Kev’s not way off about the open windows letting a lot of pollen through.

This is awesome.

We caved today and installed. The pollen has been as bad as I can remember and I don’t really have allergies.

Worth every penny—even if it’s a bad season.

Massive ridge pressing whatever activity south on the latest GFS. It looks like some sort of moisture train is coming to Florida and/or the Gulf next week, whether it’s organized somewhat remains to be seen.

Signal still strongly there on the GFS/GEFS, and to a lesser degree the EPS.

12z Euro tries to pop a very weak low next week off the SE coast, but rather than using energy ejecting from the western Caribbean as the focal point it’s using an offshore boundary. Verbatim (which doesn’t matter much at this range) it’s not fully tropical given the axis it forms on and marginal SSTs at that specific location, but it’s something worth noting and watching to see if it trends toward having more Caribbean vorticity.

Would you take the bugs if it meant more severe storms here?

It’s Tuesday, and while the GFS is on an island with the intensity of possible development in the western Caribbean and Gulf, the nagging signal for moisture ejecting out of the Caribbean is across guidance. Being inside 7-10 days with a solid signal for Atlantic ridging means it’s worth a casual eye.

Parakeets in winter and flamingos in summer.