WxWatcher007

STW instead of FFW for now in central CT. Right by the house…that I’m not at lol.

Matter of time until central CT is back under a FFW with those stationary storms.

You know you’re in a torch spot when 95/75 is called fairly brutal lol

It gives cause for pause but as you probably know that’s the case more often than not up here. @weatherwiz it’s probably time for a thread?

Love that

Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221611Z - 221815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC). Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat. Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur with the strongest cell. An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding. Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms. A stratus deck is observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented stationary front. Additional heating since this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front. Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD (Albany). This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW, will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next several hours. As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT and perhaps as far east as RI. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

Were you part of the heavy rain this morning @GaWx?

An EML would’ve locked it in

The way the SPC was talking tomorrow looks higher end somewhere.

What are you guys thinking about tomorrow and Sunday @weatherwiz & @CoastalWx? Tomorrow looks like some more scattered stuff while Sunday is about if we can get discrete stuff to pop?

Guidance signaled something about ten days ago, but lost it. Yesterday when recon was in there it had a closed circulation but it was very weak. Overnight it started threading the needle between a lot of dry air by producing consistent deep convection in a low shear environment and it looked like it was organizing, but this morning shear hit and when recon got there even though I think it was a sheared TC the NHC decided against it. Pressures were really high too to be fair. Since that flight it’s become exposed and just never got it together. Anyway, there’s a whole thread on the tropical board. NHC avoids the criticism that they name every swirl—at least this week.

Not much of a break either right with the next one on deck?

That’s what I’m talking about!

Because it was a TC (imo) last night and when recon got to it this morning shear killed the organization 92L had.

These were the ones that stood out to me. Again, nothing earth shattering but noteworthy by my eye at the moment.

Didn’t look strong on radar but was noteworthy when I first saw it.

The summer of dews and deluge is coming…

The VIL on some of these has been legit.

Good thread here. It threaded the needle until it could no longer. The introduction of shear this morning disrupted it just enough (though I still think this was a TC). Regardless of the outcome, these close to the coast cases are always a learning opportunity for identifying TC genesis and organizational potential. Sadly, there were reported fatalities in Florida due to rip currents.

I only had .33” of rain on the month. About to surpass that today.

High on my EH station so far is 92.3°. First heat wave of the year. 92/71 at HFD.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone. Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

It looks like a standard sheared TC to me. These things can get subjective though. Not issuing a PTC is telling imo.

Given the special TWO, I’m guessing they will want to see convection organize for a few hours. 2pm may be the next opportunity for a designation? It’s also curious that we’re talking about a TD when unflagged TS force SFMR were recorded. Of course, those could just be gusts that are discounted until there are more uniform FL/SFMR above 35kt.