WxWatcher007

I had someone ask me if the tornado risk meant tornadoes like out in the Midwest. What's basic to us is definitely not basic to others.

Dry slot approaching here lol

FFW Litchfield

I imagine it won’t be long until Litchfield is under a FFW. Pouring out there.

First CT FFW for Fairfield County.

It's looking like it's going to be an active day man. High res seems a little more muted compared to those weenie epic flooding runs last night, but 1) as you said we could see this slow up a bit over CT later this morning and 2) it's going to be highly efficient at producing precipitation. Won't take much for a 1-2"/hr period.

Slight risk added for SNE with a 5% tor risk. ...Mid Atlantic to New England... A very moist airmass is in place across the East Coast with 1.9 to 2.2 inch PWAT values on most 00Z RAOBs and mid 70s dewpoints from the Carolinas to New England. Within this moist environment, SPC mesoanalysis suggests an uncapped ML parcel across much of New England early this morning which should remain through mid-day. Therefore, despite expansive cloud-cover and minimal surface heating, expect 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across New England this morning. Across the same region, surface flow will strengthen somewhat in response to the developing surface cyclone. A 40 knot low-level jet will develop and overspread New England between 12Z and 18Z. This will yield 0-500m SRH around 100 to 150 m2/s2 with clockwise curvature in the lowest 1km. Given the moist profile, lapse rates will be very poor which may result in relatively weak updrafts. However, if stronger, sustained updrafts can develop, a couple of tornadoes are possible across portions of New England, primarily before 17Z.

Widespread 2”+ in CT on the 00z HREF. Max stripe looks like the 00z HRRR.

Happy to stand down if you don't want a separate thread.

Done

The WPC has placed much of New England in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. After a very wet July, we have PWATS between 2-3 SD and a boundary moving toward the region, bringing the risk of flash flooding. With anomalous shear, modest helicity, and low LCLs, there is a tornado threat as well with the SPC introducing a 2% tor risk.

He’ll take solace in the fact that at least it’ll be continuously washed.

Kev arguing about Davis dews again while his basement floods tomorrow?

Was thinking about it this morning actually…this seems like a long duration flood for the CT river. Not expected to drop below flood stage for the next few days.

It’s a strong setup for sure. PWATS 2-3 SD above normal. Someone will get smoked.

Crazy to think of what that’d mean verbatim but it’s a five bun run on its face. Will be interesting to see if the NAM and HREF amp up some tonight.

It’d be really really bad, all kidding aside. But it looks like one of those winter nuclear runs that goes takes a strong setup and takes it to a biblical level.

Absolutely drunk. Throw this in the weenie model hall of fame.

00z HRRR gone wild across interior CT.

Still think the flooding risk is the story tomorrow, but it's definitely interesting to see a high shear/modest helicity/low LCL day potentially compensate for lower instability and maybe lapse rates. Expecting an active day tomorrow in the flood category with maybe a little more spice aded via the tor potential. Can guarantee my hood gets the least rain within 50 miles in any direction though.

87/76 lol

Destabilizing nicely…just need to light the match.

5.18” on the month here, my only month over 5” since moving here about a year ago.

Here in the Hartford area.