WxWatcher007

I’m being totally hyperbolic, and mostly sarcastic, but it’s a shame that the Euro model of today borders on worthless in advance of some high impact events.

Between the BoC and SW Atlantic next week is shaping up to be active.

Pretty active even in the absence of a TC. While the BoC potential already heightens the risk of significant flooding, the GFS runs today have been concerning. Maybe it’s overdone, but it wasn’t last week with the Florida atmospheric river iirc. WPC forecast 00z GFS Given the guidance and CAG source region, I don’t think a major wind spin up is likely. But with the Caribbean firehose being pointed at the Gulf coast this could be a significant event wherever the hose lands. For the SW Atlantic potential, that’s starting to look legitimate with more run to run and cross guidance consistency. Shear and dry air may be the chief inhibitors there.

Wow—I should probably know this but what makes the site so much different? Out of the city itself?

There it is Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Blake

I don’t think there’s anything that connects this potential system with 90L other than being on the same trough. It’s an interesting signal though, and one that’s trying to coalesce at relatively short range. I highlighted the potential back on the 10th. Would be interesting to see a stifling heat wave north and TC genesis south because of the same ridge.

My very first thought on that run was “well this is about the least favored spot climatologically” Agree it’s nothing to be concerned with yet—especially given how the models struggled at short range with 90L. Just an interesting little signal. I think it’s worth a 10-20% lemon at this stage but we’ll see.

Sorry to hear it. Prayers for a speedy and full recovery.

It’s catching on

Long duration heat on the Euro. Looks like scattered storms on the big heat day Friday?

12z Euro is fairly aggressive too but doesn’t quite close the SW Atlantic disturbance off fully. Takes it south over Florida then back over the Gulf and into Louisiana as the massive ridge flexes next week. Weak system verbatim but interesting nonetheless.

Did inflation hit dew points too? I grew up with 70°+ dews being considered oppressive.

90L couldn’t get it done in the face of absurd shear, but the BoC now has 50% odds and will likely bring heavy rain to the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, the SW Atlantic idea has picked up some steam. That may be one to watch in the shorter term if something can in fact break off the trough. That…might be worth a lemon IMO.

Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. That’d be of interest, @GaWx 06z Euro 12z GFS It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time.

Yeah whatever happens in the BoC it looks like the firehose moves from Florida to the rest of the Gulf. Really unsure what’ll develop with this CAG pattern. Models struggled with 90L even in the short range and this Gulf/Caribbean setup is more complex. Still think the BoC, secondary Gulf development, and SW Atlantic (Euro operational wants to sharpen something near the coast) are the areas to watch.

I was wondering the same thing lol GYX gone wild?

.44” on the month.

Down to 10% odds for 90L Up to 50% odds for the BoC

Recon is canceled today, and despite a pretty well defined low level circulation there needs to be more convection (I know you know this). Shear is dropping and it’s over the Gulf Stream, so while the window for genesis is closing it’s still open for now.

That’s what I’m thinking. That’ll be an interesting insurance claim.

That’s helpful, thanks. So basically: 1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95. 2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it. This is a snapshot of Wednesday. Obviously the nuclear 850s in the desert SW would moderate our way but we need ~22-25°C for the big temps and can get them on our historic days. 3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. 4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps?

105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier)

Where does that rank historically?