WxWatcher007

While most of the focus will be on Major Hurricane Beryl the next few days, the highly anomalous environment that triggered Beryl’s development is also in place for newly designated Invest 96L. This could very well be another robust tropical cyclone that threatens the Antilles by midweek. Depending on the overall ridging over the Atlantic next week, this one could gain latitude as it tracks through the Caribbean in a greater fashion than Beryl—if it survives the trek. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:41Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 11:12:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10.49N 53.76W B. Center Fix Location: 435 statute miles (700 km) to the ESE (115°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 13kts (From the S at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 108kts (From the NE at 124.3mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (141°) of center fix at 11:14:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 227° at 101kts (From the SW at 116.2mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix at 11:15:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) from the flight level center at 11:08:30Z General Note About Vortex Messages: - SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

Thanks—as you know, always respect your thoughts. We know that the usual June and July sloppy named storm means nothing for the season, but seeing Beryl do this in the context of what has already been a busy season (even if the other invests weren’t named) is a gigantic red flag for what likely lies ahead. We’re not there yet, but I’m increasingly concerned that the Caribbean and possible shear won’t meaningfully slow this down. In a departure from the 12z run, the Euro keeps the buzzsaw going after a brief weakening to take this into Belize/Yucatán before a final hit in the most active tropical hot spot on the planet right now on the Gulf coast of Mexico. Caveats galore, folks: GFS And the newest Euro

The shear will be there, it’s just a question of the magnitude.

It depends on what nada means haha. If it’s no direct hit up the bay, then yes, that’s a great bet. If it’s significant impacts from a nearby TC or TC remnants that’s another story.

Beryl has a chance to really go to town in the next 24-36 hours. Folks in the islands need to be prepared for a significant hit. Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle. After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates. As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane. Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do peak Beryl stronger than shown here. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

HRRR looks robust with multiple line segments in CT tomorrow.

The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it. Here’s a nice illustration of that

Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though.

Really do think there’s considerable uncertainty over what happens in the Caribbean. A lot will depend on the magnitude of the shear. These systems can get decapitated by high shear, particularly this time of year, but if shear is slightly weaker than modeled and Beryl does establish the kind of inner core necessary of a major hurricane, it could be more resilient in the face of the shear and possible drier air. I know I was bearish at the start regarding Caribbean prospects, but I do think this hangs on a little better than I originally anticipated. That has implications on downstream steering obviously as a stronger system tends to drift poleward. Judging by the NHC forecast, this is still a viable hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatán, or if it drifts northward, the Gulf.

Yeah it’s definitely possible

Forecast is now for a major hurricane. Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

A number of models still try to get 94L to TS status briefly in the next 24-36 hours in the BoC before landfall. The last two invests in this area were close but ran out of time. We’ll see if this one gets there. Regardless, it has been very active for the Mexico coast so far this season…

@CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very impressive to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin.

This is what happens when you have a highly anomalous environment. For something this east, this early, it’s unprecedented. Just to hammer home the point. It’s June 29th. This is where we have a rapidly intensifying TC and another low to the east with 60% odds of development.

Officially Beryl now

Definitely taking SHIPS more seriously now that we have a well defined center.

Almost certainly will have Beryl at 11pm. I do think it’s worth watching what the models do with the ridging next week. There may be a window to slide something northwest around the periphery of an Atlantic ridge.

Given the improving presentation this looks like a tropical storm and if this organization continues hurricane watches will certainly be warranted at 11pm.

@GaWx that area is definitely a spot that should be on alert next week. Yeah…

Really good microwave pass

A few reasons imo 1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal.

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now.