WxWatcher007

Yeah on radar it’s ragged but clearly defined. Recon’s last VDM said the following but it keeps trying to rebuild. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYEWALL BCMG MORE RAGGED, WEAKNESS TO THE NE IN ADDITION TO BEING OPEN ON THE WEST Agree—going back to what I said earlier about the convection, this really has seemed to help Beryl maintain a minimum level of inner core stability sufficient for reorganization whenever shear tries to rip the vortex apart.

Still quite unsure whether I will make the trip down to Texas. A lot of track and intensity uncertainty at relative short range given the angle of approach. Currently thinking this does end up a little stronger and further north, but we need to see what the structure looks like after the Yucatan. Currently looking at somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Probably need a little more time to narrow that zone. @40/70 Benchmark

Thanks. Still a lot of uncertainty in the Gulf. We’ll see what the 12z hurricane model runs think on intensity and track.

It has weakened of course but the resilience has been impressive. Having a solid inner core has really been key to keeping Beryl an over performer. We have not seen nearly the erosion you’d expect under that ribbon of high shear. I think the shear being analyzed has been lesser in magnitude than what some guidance expected. Even lower shear can take a toll over time, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next day. One particular area of interest for me is convection. We’ve seen Beryl continue to fire deep convection that has been persistent enough to frequently wrap around the center, even if transiently. With very high OHC and SSTs on the path to the Yucatán, how much does this aid in maintaining the strength of the system? We will see how the landfall in the Yucatán impacts the core, as that’ll be critical to the intensity and track in the Gulf. It looks like there’s a decent consensus now, but it would not take much for slight shifts north or south. The Euro has maintained that this’ll be on the southern envelope of guidance. However, note that the stronger members are still further north. Meanwhile, much of the other guidance continues to settle further north, but the degree remains in question. Notably perhaps, many of this morning’s hurricane models shifted slightly north. We’ll see if that changes. Meanwhile other guidance is again near the border. The 00z super ensemble was further south of these models, but we’ll see if that changes at 12z. Any shifts, particularly with a NW heading likely, will have meaningful impacts.

The Euro run to run variation on intensity is just absurd. Much stronger on the western Gulf coast compared to 12z.

It’s great to have radar too to analyze any trends tonight/tomorrow.

Not entirely sure how the passes will take place, but the first recon of the evening has reached Beryl. Will be tricky with the northern eyewall over southern Jamaica.

Time limited image below but it’s clearly trying to reorganize as the eye is becoming more defined with a more symmetrical CDO. It has been extraordinarily resilient in the face of moderate shear present and dry air lurking. Perhaps some frictional convergence, missing the mountains of Jamaica, and over modeled shear helping right now. Even when the SFMR came down earlier, the winds above the deck were very strong.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 Location: 17.5°N 77.6°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

It has certainly weakened from peak, but it’s really something how resilient this has been.

How much rain have you had in the last few weeks?

Crazy hot spot so far this season

Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:58ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: BerylStorm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 29 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:12:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.03N 76.10WB. Center Fix Location: 83 statute miles (133 km) to the SE (146°) from Kingston, Jamaica.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 8kts (From the ESE at 9mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (123.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (271°) of center fix at 15:10:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 27° at 102kts (From the NNE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (283°) of center fix at 15:09:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 100kts (115.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (119°) of center fix at 15:15:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 106kts (From the SSW at 122.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 15:16:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 13:52:00Z

Still disorganized, but this is the best 96L has looked in days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php From there you can look at a ton of resources in each basin and at the invest/storm level.

Signs of life is a good descriptor If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out.

It looked like it briefly but recovered fast. The microwave images I posted in the other thread were incredible.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

It’s fascinating, but probably shouldn’t be surprising, that Beryl is coming off its peak slowly. I think the prior ERC helped it become a lot more inertially stable than it would’ve been with a smaller core. The resilience is just a sight to behold. Look at these microwave passes and note how quickly the core rebounds after earlier degradation.

I agree. FL winds are still big time.

All of those really high SFMR look rain contaminated to me. Even the unflagged 158kt wind comes with a rain rate of 2.12”/hr.