WxWatcher007

The operational models on balance today have latched onto a TC genesis signal for something near the Antilles/Caribbean via the monsoon trough. This is the NHC designated orange. The 18z Euro is faster and more robust with development through 90. Still, I’d caution that monsoon trough TC genesis is very difficult to predict and get right, so there could still be a waffling signal over the next day or two. However, given that I believe the primary reason for a “lid” in the basin so far has been stability/SAL/northern extent of past waves, we have legitimate reasons to believe genesis is possible. First, shear is relatively low in the zone where genesis is most likely, which has been a characteristic of the season thus far. Second, in this area further west, we have additional instability and a highly favorable SST/OHC profile. This is still in sharp contrast to the eastern MDR, which has seen a substantial rise in instability, but is still well below normal climo due to what’s been discussed the last few pages. I can’t overstate how important I think it is to have the MT south and possible development in the central portion of the MDR. This keeps potential development away from the greatest influence of SAL, as you can see below. Still, it’ll be important to watch convective trends the next 48 hours. No convection, no early development. You can see the MT easily with the ribbon of convection south of the SAL above, and below you can see how there’s already elongated modest low level vorticity. What breaks off and where will matter for the future, but for now, we just watch for convective activity and signs of vorticity consolidation.

Tagged with a lemon now.

I’m guessing it’ll be a waffling signal for genesis the next few days as the models struggle with what’ll come out of the MT, If anything, but the environment ahead looks quite favorable should something actually try to form before the Antilles.

It makes sense that we’re potentially starting to see signs of life as the EPAC goes quiet and the monsoon trough/African waves start to end up in more climatologically favored regions. Whatever comes of that MT could be worth watching generally as it gets into the Caribbean—that’s if anything develops. Shear is low across the MDR, and the shear profiles look absurdly favorable mid-September across ensembles. Although still well below normal, instability in the eastern MDR has increased markedly this month, and SAL intrusions have been less prominent. Waves just need to survive crossing the eastern MDR wasteland…

I don’t think ENSO will necessarily influence track here, certainly not as much as where a TC forms in the monsoon trough and how soon…if it happens at all. I’m kind of in “need to see more” mode before jumping on the lid is coming off train, but in the next week I think there are probably three areas to monitor. 1. Monsoon Trough in central Atlantic (40% NHC odds currently) 2. The eastern Atlantic tropical wave that @Windspeed has identified 3. SE U.S./central Atlantic where a boundary may help spur genesis for something moving eastward and into the open Atlantic

Was walking with friends when I said: “This feels like outflow to me. I know outflow anywhere.” Opened RadarScope and

Honestly, I think the issues are identified and we’re all truly just in wait and see mode for if or when the lid comes off.

That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1.

And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases.

Despite it being a wet season, it hadn’t felt too bad mosquito wise. Most bugs actually. I have these big horse flies that keep showing up in my house though.

Yeah forget wild. We need signs of life first lol.

We’ll see if it holds but this should test my theory that we haven’t seen much traction in the basin recently because everything is too far north and it’s killing waves before they have a chance. There’s still plenty of SAL and stability in the eastern MDR, but something further south should be able to overcome it with enough time in a low shear/high SST environment.

Maybe, finally, some signs of life on the models? The signal is messy but there at least this cycle to do something with a wave that’s further south in the eastern MDR. Would test the theory that further south could work with enough time to mix out SAL.

Happen to be at BDL to catch a flight. Not a bad look here.

Seems like there have been several instances of models struggling to keep up in the tropical realm this season.

Good stuff here this morning. The issues with stability in the eastern MDR have been a recurring theme for one reason or another the last few years, so it’s not terribly surprising (though the reasons this year are) that we’re seeing issues again. That said, I agree that a more backloaded season looks on the table and did so before all this. Problem with activity further west is you need AEWs to not get slaughtered the minute they leave the African coast lol. Subjectively it’s a good break for any coastal areas anytime the basin is anomalously dead. And good for my sleep pattern.

Amazing how time flies

Books can be written on this mindset.

Some lower level vorticity and disorganized convection that came to be because of a decaying boundary, but not enough time to develop.

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books? Actually we would It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic. Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference.

I think climo being what it is with the dramatic ramp up that usually happens post August 20, that ACE and the NS count being what it was August 15 vs August 25 mean very different things if that makes sense. It’s a reasonable argument on 8/15 to say well look, we’re at top 3 ACE in the satellite era and 5/3/1 is tremendous when normal should be 2/1/0 or whatever, and the peak is coming—steady as she goes. That’s why I disagreed with the arguments that the season had disappointed. To date. But today with the same numbers the climo treadmill speeds up by the day. We’re at peak broadly speaking. There should be activity in the Atlantic but Hawaii is getting scraped by the symmetrical eye of an intensifying hurricane. Every day that passes the NS forecasts look more endangered, but I still think H and MH are easily within range. 2022 and 2017 are good reminders that we can flip late and still put up an exceptionally high quality season. I do think it’s all about stability. In the eastern MDR it’s being reinforced by the MT/ITCZ being so north that any vigorous waves in recent weeks have rolled off Africa so far north that they get choked by SAL and much colder SSTs. Just look at how everything shut off after Ernesto. If waves were rolling off anywhere between 10-15N we’re all having a different conversation. That and a suppressive MJO combine to kill anything leaving Africa before it can even get far enough west to get off life support. If you look at the Euro and GFS moving forward, basically everything rolling off is doing so at 20N lol. You can’t even sniff a coherent enough wave to develop until 60W or greater. For the sake of my peak season forecast that needs to be transient lol but I’m not going to worry until after Sept 7 or so.

The GOAT of GOATs

The top right graphic there with wind observations is absolutely wild.

Because they’re entirely different time periods with different climatological setups in the basin? This time of year when the MDR is supposed to be lighting up, we’ve seen how SAL and stability in the eastern MDR can suppress August activity in recent years. We’ve also seen how that’s done little to blunt backloaded seasons because late season climo sees the decline of SAL and shift of TC genesis to the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Shear is more an issue late season normally, and that’s unlikely to be as much a roadblock this season given either a cool neutral or weak Nina ENSO state. 2022 had no activity between early July and early September but had 3 H in November. In active seasons there’s usually some activity in November. Including 2017, 5 of the last 7 seasons have had activity in November. If you told me a weak Nino were on the table late season like last year, November activity is off the table even with historically warm SSTs/OHC, but that’s not what we have.