WxWatcher007

Forecast is now for a major hurricane. Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

A number of models still try to get 94L to TS status briefly in the next 24-36 hours in the BoC before landfall. The last two invests in this area were close but ran out of time. We’ll see if this one gets there. Regardless, it has been very active for the Mexico coast so far this season…

@CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very impressive to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin.

This is what happens when you have a highly anomalous environment. For something this east, this early, it’s unprecedented. Just to hammer home the point. It’s June 29th. This is where we have a rapidly intensifying TC and another low to the east with 60% odds of development.

Officially Beryl now

Definitely taking SHIPS more seriously now that we have a well defined center.

Almost certainly will have Beryl at 11pm. I do think it’s worth watching what the models do with the ridging next week. There may be a window to slide something northwest around the periphery of an Atlantic ridge.

Given the improving presentation this looks like a tropical storm and if this organization continues hurricane watches will certainly be warranted at 11pm.

@GaWx that area is definitely a spot that should be on alert next week. Yeah…

Really good microwave pass

A few reasons imo 1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal.

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now.

MDR is really looking legit. 94L is heading toward the Bay of Campeche, 95L is poised to become our first true MDR system as early as this weekend, and there’s a pretty robust signal for the following wave to develop eventually. All after Alberto and 92L/93L being very close to getting classified near land. Even with 1 NS so far things are extremely active.

Judging by visible this morning, this does have a good shot of spinning up into a NS relatively quickly. Surviving the Caribbean, particularly if it can do it as a hurricane, would be highly impressive to me.

Agree with @Windspeed. This is an anomalously favorable environment for TC genesis, but there is a substantial difference between highly favorable for TC genesis and the kind of environment you need for a hurricane let alone a major. Even with the guidance being bullish, we really need to see what comes together within 95L itself and then analyze that against the environment and climo. I’m not saying it’s impossible—clearly it is this season—but it is far from even being likely right now IMO.

Phil has been busy tonight.

June 2024 Derecho Kev and @Torch Tiger called it Sunday.

What a wild night. What a wild week. I was damn sure going to be here for this one. Watched a big light show and some possible lowering as the storms got close and the watched Hartford’s lights get obscured by an absolute torrent of rain and brief wind. Not as strong as other locations, but legit.

Willimantic crushed per reports

I thought it was faster than the NAM to latch onto the northern CT potential today, but it really did end up a nowcast until those storms bowed in NY.

Holy That’s incredible

Great show. Wind was strongest early. It was shaking the car at one point. Tree tops swaying.

Tremendous light show to my west.