WxWatcher007

I don’t want to oversell it because it could still be disorganized under the hood, but this is impressive tonight. Very strong convection continues to fire, it’s hard to tell at this stage but it looks like it’s trying to establish some ventilation on the RGB water vapor (not pictured below) and it’s yet to cross the Gulf Stream, which may aid in continuing convection. What’s most impressive is 92L so far threading the needle in a very hostile moisture environment. @Kevin Reilly pointed it out earlier but the thunderstorms around 92L have thus far kept this insulated from dry air choking off the convective engine, and now we’re seeing a consolidation of those storms around what was a weak but closed circulation earlier. That’s really a feat that’s helped by being in a low shear/high SST environment. As this gets into radar range we’re obviously watching for a tighter LLC, but watch to see if there’s spiral banding ahead of the center getting into range. If so, that would be evidence that this has organized sufficiently to be designated as a TC.

No, just up here for a while for some personal stuff. It’s not the worst drive, but five days a week would be tough.

92L is really overperforming imo when it comes to firing convection. If it can get a tighter LLC tonight and keep the convection firing it should become a TC. It’s a low shear environment with SSTs that will get warmer as 92L gets closer to shore. On the other hand, dry air continues to lurk to the south, and it needs to really consolidate the closed circulation. Tonight will be very interesting as it gets in radar range. Given the near coast TC genesis cases from the last few years, I do believe we get a quick named storm here.

Phil visited Albany while my dumb ass was west trying to get pretty pictures.

Branches of different sizes down all around this area of Albany.

You have got to be fukkin kidding me. I leave Albany and 20 minutes later a storm pops up.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Thursday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

It’s definitely trying. A bit messy with the circulation but consistent convection in what’s now a less sheared environment can definitely give it decent odds to develop before moving onshore tomorrow.

They’re weak but there are some westerly winds showing up now per recon.

Roasting at HFD. 94/73

Recon on descent into the invest now. First thing to see is if we actually have a closed circulation.

If the techs are out there today I wonder if they’ll just take it down for public intoxication.

Too far north for me today. Too far south for me tomorrow.

Recon closing in on the invest at a good time as there’s been persistent and deep convection near the center.

Glue factory model

It’ll be good to see what recon finds. I’m not entirely sure it’s fully closed off, but shear has dropped significantly and there’s a little bit of time. Dry air is an issue, especially on the southern side, but convection so far has held on.

I don’t mean this as a negative statement, but it’s mostly monotony year round. Not surprising on a random June morning the conversation isn’t about the intricacies of 850mb temperature advection. Riveting conversation there too.

If we can talk about those three without complaining then I won’t have to complain about the complaining. Banter but honestly, I’m still sad about Willie Mays’ passing. What a life well lived. I’m looking forward to the game tonight at Rickwood Field.

This conversation makes me want to throw my head through this computer screen.

May try to catch the storms up here in the Albany area today. It’s been a while since I’ve been in chase mode. @weatherwiz I hear Troy tends to be a good viewing spot?

It’s a lot of rain for Mexico. Feast it famine like @wxmx said.

Thanks. As I see it, the well defined center has an uphill fight against shear and then dry air as it approaches the coast. Small systems can trend stronger or weaker very quickly however, so this is definitely an interesting one to track.

Hot towers going up around the center now.