WxWatcher007

Like tennis volleys these models

18z spaghetti models shifted back south, reiterating just how tricky this Gulf forecast is going to be.

Texas is definitely still on the table. There is very high uncertainty on the models for 5 days out.

It should weaken, but it won’t be anywhere close to what happened to Chris.

12z Hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS A & B) have adjusted a bit stronger with the close approach to Jamaica tomorrow. Somewhat more mixed signal for the Yucatan.

I think the changes broadly on the guidance in the last 24 hours are significant, but the run to run variations should give everyone pause on future intensity and track. This is still a lot of spread for the Gulf.

These are significant shifts on the guidance in track and intensity

12z GFS is more robust, with a blunted level of weakening before Jamaica impacts and the Yucatán, and much more intensification relative to 06z in the Gulf before landfall Sunday. North trend continues.

Reupping my favorite (tropical) decapitation of all time.

Today. Jamaica is in the path of a possible direct hit tomorrow.

12z

Can’t see much, but it’s there…

What a nuke

Posted in the wrong thread lol but here’s my morning analysis.

Regardless of the peak, Beryl is on borrowed time as a category five hurricane. There’s unanimous agreement that it begins to run into a ribbon of shear later today that will start to erode its vertical alignment and open it to intrusions of dry air. The question is the degree of weakening, which is critical for Jamaica in particular, which may receive a direct hit. Here are the four most reliable intensity models tomorrow at 15z as Beryl approaches. After Jamaica, there is substantial uncertainty that only grows over time over the fate of Beryl. The models all continue to weaken Beryl as it enters the western Caribbean. The track has trended north, and into the Yucatán late week. From there, it gets really tricky. Is Beryl weak enough to die over this region? Is it stronger than anticipated after Jamaica, leading to a reduced bend westward? How does the troughing in the Midwest influence a weakness that would trigger a more northwestward bend in the Gulf? What does the environment for reorganization and intensification look like in the Gulf? All unanswered questions at this time. As it heads into the Gulf, there’s tremendous spread. Be wary of the specific model means, as the western/southern solutions kind of lead to an unrepresentative mean in the later stages of the runs. However, there has been a clear trend north imo in the last 24 hours which means folks in Texas need to watch closely as well. Note how the Euro has two camps: one that follows the 00z operational and keeps Beryl weak and south, and another the more closely follows the hurricane models above. The “super ensemble” is still favored south into Mexico, but it’s north compared to yesterday. Basically—there’s still a lot of spread here both in intensity and track. Folks in the Yucatán and western Gulf need to keep watching this one. Finally, this is made very clear by these two runs of the Euro! 00z and new 06z sees substantial flip flopping continue over the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Yucatán. Long way to go with this one.

These are all still some awfully impressive recon passes. It may be peaking, but with the latest pases I think you could make the argument that peak is somewhere near 170.

There’s probably going to be a limit to warming and depth because of TC activity and intraseasonal pattern changes (think trade winds) that slow or stop even more runaway warmth, but we’re in uncharted territory. It’s almost certainly going to be historically warm and combining that with the other major factors it’s going to be historically active IMO. Activity comps—2020, 2005, 1933 SST comp—2023

00z GFS significantly weakens Beryl but is a little further north for a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday afternoon, a Yucatán landfall (also weak) Friday morning, and a further north track into south Texas (also weak) late Sunday. A good illustration of how much uncertainty there is later this week.

Down to ~936mb per dropsonde

What’s more impressive though, is that SAL to the north and an anomalously low wind shear environment allowed Beryl to blow through climatology and the historical record. It’s amazing on numerous levels. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Pressure still dropping. Recon just had a pass with an extrapolated 934.9mb.

When your basin looks like this, it’s definitely September.

I mean what can be said. That’s absurd lol.

Beryl is now the first category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.8°N 64.9°WMoving: WNW at 22 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 160 mph