WxWatcher007

So weird that after taking the other models to the woodshed early the GFS decides to do shrooms halfway through the exam.

What a cut off.

I’d roll the dice with an icon like track

That’s the wave? Yikes, that’s robust. We’re not in the basin wide favorable period yet.

Sorry if I’m late but we have a D3 High risk for excessive rainfall in coastal SC and GA.

Even the GFS, which drags Debby over the SE, brings it back over the Gulf, and raises it from the dead to rocket up the coast gives us significant rain in the coming week. The details have varied, but the rain signal has not. This is a prolific hydrological bomb brewing in the Gulf and the multiple troughs this week will wring out as much moisture as the east coast has seen in a while. To say nothing of the actual track. Wind obviously unlikely to be a big issue but I’d watch in case the euro trend toward more of a coastal scrape allows for a more coastal scraper track. Not saying a hurricane is coming LOL.

It tried very early this morning and failed, but it looks like it’s getting further along in this attempt. We’ll see if the radar look is reflected in a tighter RMW on the next recon pass. Still a fair amount of work to do on the western and southern side. Hope your area ends up ok. The most consistent signal with this one continues to be rainfall. It seems like the global models get it into the Atlantic even though the longer range tracks diverge. The Euro with a more progressive track (less prone to fully collapsing the steering pattern) keeps it offshore longer before a second landfall. Not only is this important for the longer range track and intensity, but also coastal flooding.

It couldn’t get convection upshear so it collapsed on radar, but it does look more organized on the eastern side.

Yeah I’m not really sure what to think. The ensembles were split between the op and a more progressive track.

Some odd runs tonight. It looks like the GFS loops it back into the Gulf and regenerates its remnants before taking it up the coast. The wildly different solutions don’t create a lot of confidence.

The radar and satellite presentation has improved dramatically. Convection trying to wrap into an eyewall now.

Pretty quick change in just the last hour or so.

There’s definitely reason to be concerned. I think the turn back N/NW is likely, even if the track smooths out a bit. A lot of vulnerable coastline as others have noted.

Crazy enough, it did better than all the globals for Beryl’s track. That said, we should be blending and using ensembles. Just posted in the main thread.

Just popping in. It’s not uncommon to have mixed signals as a TC is trying to essentially find its footing in an environment. While there is a well defined low level center, and pretty good satellite presentation, recon and radar make it clear that there’s substantial work to be done to build the kind of inner core necessary for the intensification the NHC expects. The center needs to tighten from its current elongated state so that convection can efficiently wrap around the center and begin a more significant pressure fall. There’s time for that to happen, hence the forecast. The environment is excellent for intensification and I expect Debby to take advantage of it tomorrow at a gradually faster pace. Shear is low, and Debby is under an anticyclone. Obviously, SSTs are anomalously warm. Historically so. Dry air is nearby, which could be a somewhat limiting factor until the system develops an inner core (time sensitive) The biggest limiting factor is time. This is a system that could pop extremely fast, and both the FL coast and SE coast should be prepared for a hurricane. How quickly an inner core develops to take advantage of a very favorable environment is key. SHIPS shows the potential very well. Those are high numbers, but it’s far from a guarantee that high end RI occurs. But some of this wind discussion loses sight of the real issue. There’s a lot to sort out, but this is a big hydrological system potentially up the coast between the system itself and a trough enhanced Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). Finally, track after FL is highly uncertain. While I am intrigued by the op solutions driving this well inland in the SE, the super ensemble is a bit different. Just keep that in mind as the more exotic solutions could (or could not) smooth out. Track images from Tomer’s site.

at home. .02”

Even the EPS mean is 5” here over the next week or so (not all from Debbie). I’d expect the 12z super ensemble to be tucked closer to the coast. This was 00z.

Wind field still looks a little elongated to me, but it’s clearly on an organizing trend imo. Data suggests this should be Debby at 5pm.

Somebody will complain.

It can vary by storm and context. For intensity, now that we have a well defined center, the hurricane models like the HAFS-A&B, HWRF, HMON tend to be best especially at shorter to medium range. For track, it’s the global models, and most often the Euro and GFS. The Euro has struggled so far with this one imo, but it’s still worth looking at and taking seriously.

Yikes

Euro isn’t north enough for a region wide drought buster.

Yes. It has been playing catch up for days, but its solution is viable too if this system moves a bit faster. Even still—it’s wet along the south coast.

It looks about the same between FL and the SE landfall, and then faster than 00z moving from inland SC to points NE. Very different in that regard from the GFS.