WxWatcher007

Too soon if you’re talking about high end stuff. Climo rules even in the most favorable of years. An Elsa (not track, just development case) would be a best case imo. This is an anomalously favorable window though for something in the MDR.

As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted.

Agree. NAM was robust but this seems like a southern special to me.

Maybe some 30% wind probs somewhere? Favored areas look to our south though right now. ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe thunderstorms through the period. One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km, suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent, but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop. However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for categorical upgrades.

Always love these statistical posts. I didn’t even realize the last few years were that active that early. Still, I do think it has little meaning especially since we have an anomalously favorable setup coming for the MDR in early July. The AEWs have been robust thus far and I don’t expect that to change. SAL dominates now but you just need a window or two for activity to pick up. We nearly had two additional NS with 92L & 93L. Probably early August. Anything sooner and that would be a blaring signal of a big season incoming.

Posting because there’s still interesting meteorology here. This is a great thread.

Today was interesting. My original staging point was going to be Lebanon, NH, but before I could get too far I ended up stuck in traffic after a terrible accident closed the road and required LifeStar. By this point, the pre frontal storms started firing, and it was slow going until I had my first target—a cell that looked like it had growing rotation on radar. That led me to Manchester Center and I got unlucky as the storm failed to cycle. I had to follow it east a bit but it never really regained its original look even though it became severe warned. I saw the cell to the south near the VT border go up and I bailed south. This defined the day as from that moment on I was trying to catch up. Then I saw the CT radar. I kept south…and while I caught part of the structure of the supercell that went over my house, that was it. Today was frustrating, but severe chases are awfully hard especially in New England and I didn’t necessarily make any wrong decisions. I’m now home and there’s a garden variety storm, but it’s picturesque as well.

Thinking of Lebanon as my starting point. Access to a good road network is foremost in my mind for this one. Could start further south though depending on trends.

Seems like a classic tough severe forecast day down here lol. Like you said, even if we’re mostly capped it only takes one to break through to get things real interesting. Tricky messaging for a CT audience. As always, really helpful and informative.

Kind of interesting that the guidance went from more widespread activity to more isolated stuff between the 00z and 06z suites. I do wonder how strong the cap will be in actuality.

If there’s a fail mode down here in CT it’s the cap, not how much instability we build imo.

First time? That’s awesome, good luck. You’ll crush it. I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do. I see the cap further south on the soundings, but I also wonder if that opens the door to perhaps less widespread storms but a couple of big storms that have enough to break the cap. I also hate chasing in New England. Not fond of the terrain or road network. Not a lot of ways to get into good position.

Not surprisingly, the ENH zone was expanded. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening.

Not sure

From a follower in West Hartford around the time of the tor warning @weatherwiz

One of my concerns (down in CT) is that we don’t see the discrete cell tornado risk, but rather cells in NY that congeal and bring a straight line risk.

18z NAM has activity up in NNE around 12z tomorrow. Those soundings tomorrow from Albany to HFD look messy but legit.

Two days, two FFWs, 1.27” of rain. I was at ~.33 on the month.

Today seems like a good example of a discrete cell taking advantage of the environment.

I can count on two fingers the times it has hailed in my back yard. One was in DC and the other was in CT on December 30, 2019.

Well, I’m all in for tomorrow

I cannot fukkin believe this. I’m not home.