WxWatcher007

LOL this place cracks me tf up

Despite the shear pushing the convection away (preventing any significant organization), there’s a pretty solid low level spin just SW of Tampa. You can see it on radar and visible imagery.

No surprise, but the shear is just absurd across the much of the western Atlantic.

Look at that anomaly up the coast..

Makes me feel good when an area I tag early eventually gets highlighted by the NHC lol. 90L is getting sheared terribly but the convection is quite strong. Some of the high res guidance is ugly in the coming days with regard to rainfall.

Well we got the lemon and invest.

I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening. -Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. Let's turn to three areas. 1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. EPS GEFS This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 2) BoC Low (6-9 Days) This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now.

I can imagine a table in the back with Ray, Dryslot, Kev, and ineedsnow getting ready to brawl depending on what a winter Euro run paints as the jackpot zone, the cops getting called, and @MJO812 lining em up against the wall and throwing them in the back of the paddy wagon while mumbling “I’ll be damned if these New Englanders think they’ll steal my snow.”

Bring it. Every season lol. People complain, and then people complain about the complaining. I’m pushed to the limit when we do the morality debates during tropical season.

@GaWx similar to the Ukmet? Also, look at the EPAC signal now. Interesting.

Heh, suddenly the Euro wants to develop something (sub)tropical off the SE coast in the next few days. Stays offshore. Just kind of speaks to this nebulous signal over the next ten days or so. 72 120

YESSIRRR LFG

In summer hibernation.

How did you get into this field? Was it always an interest for you?

Euro tries to tighten up close to the northern Gulf coast, so it continues to be a signal worth watching. Still quite weak even if there’s organization. This is at 850mb. At the end of the run it also bites on that secondary signal I’ve been mentioning in the BoC. Nothing to take verbatim, but it signals that there may be a longer window of favorable TC genesis in the homebrew region.

I can’t find an average OHC map for the date, but I do have the anomaly plot. Current OHC Anomaly MDR anomaly comparison to other years

I came across this a few weeks ago and it’s a fantastic reference point.

Normally at this time of year I’d favor the EPAC because of climatology, but this setup looks to favor (using that term loosely) the Gulf. Shear looks too strong in the EPAC and the focal point of moisture is ejected from the Caribbean into the Gulf. There are some GEFS lows tucked along the Mexico coast, but the signal over the Gulf is unimpeded and far stronger, even on the EPS now. It should be underscored for the lurkers watching however—right now anything that develops is likely to be broad and weak and likely kept in check by the shear anomalies over the Gulf. Rain would be the primary concern here. I’m also intrigued by that second signal the week of the 17th but that’s way out there for now.

Ha, I was just looking at SSTs/OHC for the Gulf potential and noticed our region. It’s crazy. Even for our relatively cold neck of the woods it’s a blowtorch. All in about a month too…

Obscene warmth

I just looked at the EPS and GEFS ensembles and both are interesting. Especially the idea on both that the CAG leads to multiple opportunities for TC genesis. Different dates but as we’ve already seen the Euro is slow on the take with CAG. Normally I’d balk at something like that but obviously the Caribbean is as favorable as it gets thermodynamically and we should have a favorable (for genesis) MJO/CCKW later in the month. But this warmth is obscene for early June.

I think the Gulf signal is becoming increasingly real. Even if the result is an early season lopsided low. I was just saying I’d pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf. Looking at the ensembles too, it looks like the CAG could produce multiple opportunities…

I’d agree that was the case with some of the earlier GFS runs, but now verbatim it looks pretty broad and lopsided imo. That said, some of the models have tried to tighten it up some as it gets close to land, which isn’t surprising. Also of interest is how the GFS and Canadian kind of try to eject multiple impulses from the CAG into the Gulf, which could lead to genesis off the SE coast. I’m not sure how real that is lol I’d be tempted to pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf honestly. I think the Gulf signal for something is real.