WxWatcher007

Yeah my station is holding between 87-88.

Mesonets gone wild up there

We need this.

95° was always my bar for big heat. That, or 100° HI. Becoming a scorchah. 84.1/72 at my EH station while HFD is at 84/72 HI 90. HFD was tracking ahead of me for about an hour.

*

The MOS post set me off this morning I’m not home, but my station in East Hartford usually tracks very closely with HFD to the SW. Usually within a degree or two. It’s the coolest station in the area even though a few others are also high quality. I’m about two hours ahead of yesterday’s pace.

I don’t think the failure would be in the Euro way overshooting the 103-105 for Thursday-Friday it once had. Anyone with any knowledge knew that was likely bogus. The SW advection never looked right. Ridge placement a little far north, etc.. But if the guidance which was honking legitimate mid-upper 90s late week and a 5-6 day heat wave trends to a reality of only upper 80s all week—as the week is literally underway—lol that’s a bust. At any rate this is all probably cart before the horse. We’ll just see how this plays out.

I originally had Thursday-Friday in the 90s at the coast with Saturday possible but least likely. It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the modeled heat cut back does translate in reality. I’m at .44” of rain on the month. Very dry all of a sudden but I don’t expect that to continue in July and August when we’re most convectively active.

It'd be an epic model failure if anything close to that occurred imo. Epic.

The “Secondary Gulf Potential” is now a lemon in the BoC.

We don’t do cold down here.

If BDL can * it’s way to 90 today, it damn well better hit a hundo on Thursday or Friday

Advisories coming at 5pm

Was just about to post. This is a good use of the PTC designation.

That was my thought originally too…that it’d take until Sunday or Monday for the break to occur, but I suppose we’re trending toward a shorter technical heat wave for now.

Obviously unlikely

GFS gone wild but it basically spins up everything from the CAG.

Yeah it’s one of those things where I truly love the balance the seasons provide. Climate stuff aside we still have four distinct times of year and of course daylight length ebbs and flows. It’s ok to appreciate the moment you’re in. What do you make of this discrepancy? Do you think temperatures over or underperforming today speak to the rest of the week as the ridge continues to build? Caveats about clouds, etc., aside?

Imagine having hours and hours of evening sunshine and warm temps outside and longing for the months long soul crushing period of chasing phantom snowstorms and having just enough cold for the mix line to reach Portland rather than Quebec City.

The 1930s were really an extraordinary period. It’s hard to imagine, especially in the context of no air conditioning and the Great Depression.

Just started a thread. Here's 12z Euro through 90.

We have our first cherry of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season due to a growing signal for tropical genesis in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf. This soon to be invest comes from a monsoon gyre/CAG that has been in place over the Caribbean for a while now. With a large area of vorticity/disturbed weather over Central America/Yucatan, a broad low is expected to develop and move toward the coast. It's still unclear how far north the actual center goes, or how quickly something spins up, but the setup for heavy rain over Texas and much of the Gulf Coast is pronounced. As you can see below, life-threatening flash flooding is possible/occurring in Mexico (let's not forget about friends like @wxmx) and Central America. As for wind, the threat seems relatively low as rain is likely to be the predominant and most widespread impact, but we'll of course have to watch for how any broad low tightens up. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Where does this love come from?