WxWatcher007

Kind of interesting that the guidance went from more widespread activity to more isolated stuff between the 00z and 06z suites. I do wonder how strong the cap will be in actuality.

If there’s a fail mode down here in CT it’s the cap, not how much instability we build imo.

First time? That’s awesome, good luck. You’ll crush it. I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do. I see the cap further south on the soundings, but I also wonder if that opens the door to perhaps less widespread storms but a couple of big storms that have enough to break the cap. I also hate chasing in New England. Not fond of the terrain or road network. Not a lot of ways to get into good position.

Not surprisingly, the ENH zone was expanded. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening.

Not sure

From a follower in West Hartford around the time of the tor warning @weatherwiz

One of my concerns (down in CT) is that we don’t see the discrete cell tornado risk, but rather cells in NY that congeal and bring a straight line risk.

18z NAM has activity up in NNE around 12z tomorrow. Those soundings tomorrow from Albany to HFD look messy but legit.

Two days, two FFWs, 1.27” of rain. I was at ~.33 on the month.

Today seems like a good example of a discrete cell taking advantage of the environment.

I can count on two fingers the times it has hailed in my back yard. One was in DC and the other was in CT on December 30, 2019.

Well, I’m all in for tomorrow

I cannot fukkin believe this. I’m not home.

STW instead of FFW for now in central CT. Right by the house…that I’m not at lol.

Matter of time until central CT is back under a FFW with those stationary storms.

You know you’re in a torch spot when 95/75 is called fairly brutal lol

It gives cause for pause but as you probably know that’s the case more often than not up here. @weatherwiz it’s probably time for a thread?

Love that

Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221611Z - 221815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC). Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat. Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur with the strongest cell. An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding. Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms. A stratus deck is observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented stationary front. Additional heating since this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front. Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD (Albany). This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW, will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next several hours. As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT and perhaps as far east as RI. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

Were you part of the heavy rain this morning @GaWx?

An EML would’ve locked it in

The way the SPC was talking tomorrow looks higher end somewhere.

What are you guys thinking about tomorrow and Sunday @weatherwiz & @CoastalWx? Tomorrow looks like some more scattered stuff while Sunday is about if we can get discrete stuff to pop?

Guidance signaled something about ten days ago, but lost it. Yesterday when recon was in there it had a closed circulation but it was very weak. Overnight it started threading the needle between a lot of dry air by producing consistent deep convection in a low shear environment and it looked like it was organizing, but this morning shear hit and when recon got there even though I think it was a sheared TC the NHC decided against it. Pressures were really high too to be fair. Since that flight it’s become exposed and just never got it together. Anyway, there’s a whole thread on the tropical board. NHC avoids the criticism that they name every swirl—at least this week.