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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    I know what you mean. I’m guessing they will raise intensity slightly at 5 a sent recon, and then we’ll see what’s going on under the hood when this latest plane gets there.
  2. WxWatcher007
    They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, this is about as structurally sound as it gets. Hopefully the recon will get back in there soon to continue documenting it, but unless there’s a messy ERC the HAFS-B might be right in the structural changes in the next 24-30 hours.
  4. WxWatcher007
    Models continue to develop a modest low. Do you think it’ll have enough to become fully tropical?
  5. WxWatcher007
    Never a doubt
  6. WxWatcher007
    Absolutely extraordinary.
  7. WxWatcher007
    @GaWx now have a lemon on the FL east coast. That one has a good chance to get a name if it can stay tropical. Everything spinning is becoming a TC in the basin right now.
  8. WxWatcher007
  9. WxWatcher007
    There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Zero doubt in my mind that it’s continuing to intensify. Whether the next recon flight confirms that…idk. This is remarkable.
  11. WxWatcher007
    This will be the storm of record for Tampa.
  12. WxWatcher007
    An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eye
  13. WxWatcher007
    They did a phenomenal job getting so many passes in.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Reminder that SFMR are not being used operationally by the NHC for the rest of the season.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Given the warming of the eye, the pinhole nature, and recon data, this is continuing to rapidly intensify. With no end in sight yet. Extraordinary.
  16. WxWatcher007
    I thought I was being reasonable last night with a peak of 160/919. We’re going to blow well past that.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Extrapolated 914.4mb
  18. WxWatcher007
    It’s amazing how jet interactions have helped a number of our hurricanes this season.
  19. WxWatcher007
    65mph/991mb yesterday at 11am
  20. WxWatcher007
  21. WxWatcher007
    Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH)
  22. WxWatcher007
    Saying nothing of what happens from here, this is a tremendous victory for intensity modeling and the HAFS. The NHC telegraphed this was possible before RI even took place and that’s in large part due to the incredible advances in intensity modeling. Yes, it happened faster than anticipated, but it wasn’t a surprise.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Milton is now the second category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Looks like recon is circling now just shy of the center.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, it does look like an ERC could start but probably not before a little more intensification.
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