WxWatcher007

Stronger at 11am. Seeing convection start to go up closer to the center but time and a broad center are limiting factors.

And that nearly every factor is aligned for an extremely busy peak…

@MillvilleWx always on it.

Boring is fine. Later August through peak should be plenty active. Shouldn’t be our only bite at the apple though next time we’ll have a Bahamas tempest that’s captured by a cutoff on guidance at D5 but evolves to a kicker to Bermuda at D2.

In this case, I think environment will moisten some and dry air will diminish, but dry air will likely linger to some extent around the center. This shows up pretty well on the hurricane models like HWRF and HAFS A & B. Even with a favorable environment, it takes a while for a disorganized tropical system to mix out dry air. It may be more efficiently mixed if the center got over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, but time and its current state are major inhibiting factors.

It has some significant dry air to mix out, but given that it should be over warm water and a low shear environment the next day or so, it should intensify some.

I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize.

Mostly for areas south of us, but some efficient rainers still possible in S CT

Smoked down there. Good call WPC. I’ll admit I didn’t see it yesterday. It looks more run of the mill here, but even then it’s a fairly significant rain event for summer. Also, pretty funny that the time we do trend from a kicker trough to one that draws a TC north, it carries the TC to Binghamton.

Some PWS already well over an inch.

Precip popping on LI and coastal CT.

Severe thunderstorm and FFW over White Marsh

I said yesterday I was going to be looking at structure, convection, and organization as it moved toward the shoreline. After starting the day nearly fully hollowed out by dry air and the effects of the slow trek over land. The last few hours have seen some modest organization as the center moves over Savannah and offshore. You can see how banding is trying to organize around the western side, though dry air is still present—now in the southern/southeastern side. Perhaps importantly later on, the center itself is well defined with shallow convection generally wrapped around. To be clear, there is a lot of work to do before this can really reintensify at a meaningful pace, but this is what I’m watching as the center crawls offshore.

I don’t think it matters much yet, but Debby is looking markedly more organized as the center tries moving offshore. You can see shallow convection on the formerly dry side and a better defined center.

This was from the 5am. It’s probably still a marginal TS. Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Debby's center is just inland of the Georgia coast while most of the deep convection is oriented in a couple of bands over the Atlantic waters feeding northwestward into South Carolina. Scatterometer data from late last evening indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field had expanded eastward over the Atlantic waters, and that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt. This was confirmed by a few observations of 35-40 kt sustained winds along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting

If this one doesn’t produce for you, we may need to consider one of those desert irrigation systems for the region. Build a pipeline to Lake Erie.

Wow. That’s insane.

Maybe next run it’ll try to be consistent rather than burying the low in Alabama again lol

The flood watch in southern CT is a good call. Much of the guidance has a good signal for rain later this evening/early Wednesday that could lead to a few inches. The axis of the heaviest however is still unclear. Meanwhile the GFS has adjusted away from its buried in the SE look and importantly is more robust verbatim as the remnant/post tropical low reaches the region. At least at 06z. Breezy at the coast on both the GFS and Euro for the wind wishers. As we finally see Debby reach the Atlantic we’ll see if the guidance trends back away from those far west and weaker solutions. I should note that even those weaker runs overnight dumped 3+ in many spots. We’re likely going to get soaked regardless.

Meh right now on the models.

Perhaps it’s a touch faster and east—I don’t have an overlay, but the center is still inland looking at the radar loop. The circle is where I’d put it. Radar velocities remain between 40-50mph so the weakening trend has continued, but like I said earlier the structure is what matters. It has clearly degraded, perhaps at a slightly accelerated pace, the last few hours. How much this all matters remains to be seen. I’ll be looking for whether convection begins to fire closer to the center as it approaches the coast, which will take time. SSTs are warm but we have to see if the center can get over the Gulf Stream and for any meaningful amount of time. Shear doesn’t look too bad in the Atlantic the next few days looking at current analysis and SHIPS, so time and proximity to land are the biggest inhibitors determining whether this remains a TS or makes a run at hurricane intensity again.

Agree. If we’re talking most impactful, some type of regeneration/landfall near the SC/NC border and NNE track off Ocean City to across the south coast would be it. The trend has been west and inland though. Kind of crazy that we’re still so far out in tropical tracking standards so shifts remain likely.

Given how bad it has been, that’s a reasonable take lol. You’re in the extreme drought zone, right?