WxWatcher007

Good luck there too.

Super ensemble is still useful for this reason. Until we see more here the GFS is barely worth consideration imo.

GFS would REALLY be pulling off a coup if it’s right about Debby dying on the GA/Alabama line rather than riding north.

Stay safe there. Hope your property ends up fine.

The forecast will definitely continue to evolve as we see how Debbie moves back over the Atlantic and interacts with the ridge/trough.

NHC accounts for decay over land. Rapid weakening was expected, but the forecast still gets this to the Atlantic where some intensification remains likely. The NHC forecast gets it far enough out into the Atlantic to allow for it imo. That said, this is emphatically a rain/water event. I look less at the surface wind right now and more the structural decay. For now, the structure looks as expected on radar and satellite.

I don’t need to tell you that it’s been a dry summer. The anomalously strong tropical wave that traversed the Atlantic made landfall in Florida this morning as a category one hurricane, and as it meanders in the southeast bringing potentially catastrophic flooding in parts of FL, GA, and SC, it’s time for a thread to track impacts in the Mid-Atlantic region. Debby is emphatically a rain event. It’s not just the slow movement in the south that will cause issues, it’s the presence of a coming trough and anomalously high moisture content that will bring flooding potential along most of the U.S. East Coast. A lot remains unclear on impacts in the region. It’s a high likelihood that significant rain occurs, but how much and how far west the rain gets, as well as coastal wind, surge, and severe weather impacts will be determined by the structural organization of the low after a likely landfall in SC, and the track as it moves north and northeast. Here’s the latest forecast.

Ok I’ll whip something up.

For posterity And while this isn’t likely to be a wind event, especially if Debby stays inland, we don’t get these probs often

Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread.

Not sure I get the mod zone in NJ by the WPC, but man a 3 day high risk in the SE is crazy. Charleston goes underwater on sunny days. ...Mid-Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast... A Moderate Risk area was raised for extreme northeast Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey where there is a growing signal for a PRE (predecessor rain event) to unfold as Tropical Cyclone Debby impacts the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic region. Training convection will refire with daytime heating Tuesday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday night. From Baltimore northeast up the I-95 corridor to the Boston metro, training storms and urbanization may cause an outsized risk of flash flooding. While there is some spread in the guidance in where the front will stall, the training storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches, locally 5+ inches which would quickly surpass local FFGs and lead to scattered to possibly widespread instances of flooding.

This is going to get ugly. Multi-day high risk issued now.

I think that may depend on how much Debby holds together the next few days and reintensifies. Euro develops a really water laden system over the Atlantic before the SC landfall. The better organized it is I think the more efficiently it’ll be able to wring moisture out of the atmosphere as it interacts with the trough and moves northward.

Once it gets back into a more robust steering pattern, it starts scooting NE pretty quickly. Significant rain in a somewhat compressed time frame.

00z 12z

12z Euro quite a bit north. More than I thought it’d be. Interesting.

Sad stuff

Different interests for sure. Nothing wrong with it. Just crazy reading at times. Unless that trough trends much deeper I have a hard time believing a Hudson like track. I think something near or just south of the south coast is most likely, bringing plenty of rain to the region. It’d still need to be pretty vigorous aloft for a severe threat if it’s going west, which I guess is possible as guidance (minus GFS) has some deepening of the low at our latitude. I’d say I’ll take it for lake effect snow, but I don’t think it works with southerly flow in January.

Be safe down there. May need to start posting here more so I don’t throw my phone out the window.

I see this is going to be an excruciating week of reading. Christ.

Riding west of the Hudson will do that. Congrats Binghamton.

Whew

With a few more added.

Agree. Still quite a lot to sort out, starting with how quickly this gets into the Atlantic, how long it stays there, how much it reorganizes, and where it comes back inland. At least a rain shutout looks unlikely…

Now that the GFS is sobering up, let’s see how it adjusts. At least initially it looks like it’s back to the hellacious PRE/quasi-PRE idea somewhere in New England. Global tracks all looked closer to the coast with the Euro and Ukie modestly intensifying the low as it heads off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Likely due to trough enhancement, but anomalously warm coastal waters could support marginal tropical under the right conditions. Rain continues to be the story here obviously as this’ll likely spend a lot of time inland. I’ll be wary of last minute shifts east/south all the way to the end but for now it looks like a close approach from some type of discernible low is increasingly possible. I think you need that to maximize rain chances. If it’s 1010mb ground road kill like Tip said the other day sliding ENE off Virginia Beach, this is a run of the mill rainer. If that. If it’s a low deepening through the 990s with a center crossing over or near the south coast, then we’re talking. Maybe not for the debs that want 85kt/975mb mini nuke, but it’s early August and this is what we got. It’s better than dews talk.