WxWatcher007

Closing in on a SW to NE pass.

Agree with Normandy. I don’t think it changes anything materially.

I think there’s still enormous value in looking at ensembles, and I think that’s why we’re seeing slight north ticks from the NHC. It’s also important to highlight that the ensembles continue to show northward sensitivity to a stronger storm. Given where we are right now with the structure and intensity of Milton, I’d lean north of Tampa at this time. Obviously still time for things to change.

At this range, I just want to see that there’s a visible seedling and generally favorable upper level steering pattern for a northward track. It looks like both boxes are tentatively checked, but of course all that can change.

3rd all time with an 80kt intensity increase in 24 hours per the NHC (Wilma & Felix)

The Yucatan coastline.

Mph yes

Going to be a very close call for the coast, but it probably misses. edit: Mexican coast

Latest VDM has 935mb and a 8nm wide eye. Now that’s a pinhole.

It’s always a low likelihood of a direct hit up here, but it’s something worth a casual eye.

It’s extremely close to becoming a 5, but we have to pay attention to how this faster intensification and time between an ERC impacts track, surge potential, and future intensity for FL. The NHC advisory should be telling, but I’m guessing with this peak, a category four at landfall looks increasingly possible.

#QualityOverQuantity

Recon is now looking to conduct a SE to NW pass. It would not surprise me at all if Milton has cleared that threshold.

I think there will be some of course whenever this undergoes (another) ERC, but I never fully bought into substantial weakening in the hours before landfall for reasons I mentioned last night.

Milton takes everyone’s attention right now, but the follow up signal in the western Caribbean that the GFS has had is getting a little more EPS support each day. The lid has been blown off and something is going to need to put it back on to stop the train of nukes.

Thanks to the mod that changed the title. I was too busy looking at recon’s jaw dropping data.

Towers going up on the northern edge of the eye.

That GFS run is also quite impactful for coastal GA and part of SC. A lot of rain and strong onshore flow.

Yeah, remote sensing and in situ recon data all point to Milton being in the initial stage of rapid intensification that will most like go uninterrupted barring any structural changes. Any call on lowest pressure? I could see a 40-50 mb drop occurring by tomorrow night. Perhaps we can't rule out an even lower drop before outer banding begins to intensify and influence the core. I'm going to say 928 mb is not unrealistic by tomorrow evening. Given the structure, size, and extremely favorable environment ahead, I’ll guess it peaks around 160mph/919mb. That is not my projected landfall intensity but it’s problematic because it’ll almost certainly trigger an ERC that expands the size of the hurricane—making both wind and surge risk worse.

@Moderately Unstable

I’ve noticed it, but I’m a little skeptical something tropical gets going before conditions become more unfavorable. That said, given where we are with this peak—anything spinning has a chance right now.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (H)

And from experience, those 10-20 miles may not be known until hours before landfall. That’s why it’s so important for everyone to be prepared along the potential landfall zone.

989mb with a closed eye and peak FL winds of 75kts on the VDM. I think that’s enough for an upgrade assuming the NE side is stronger but we’ll see.