WxWatcher007

Would be cool to see it hang on long enough to become the second on record to make the trek at hurricane intensity.

Love Quebec City

Still pretty skeptical of much east of 91 tomorrow afternoon/evening but Sunday morning looks active on the CAMs.

NAM continues to look robust for parts of the region tomorrow/early Sunday. I’m a little interested. Edit: not worth much imo, but the 18z HRRR was quite active through CT.

Have to think it’d be in the Hudson Valley down to NE PA. Wish we could get that look a little further east.

It is a wonderful day

Deeply

That’s why I went lower.

Slight risk out to western/central CT

I was just off. Second place?

12z at 360?

My annual peak forecast is only ten days away. Crazy.

Lapse rates have been an issue all season.

Extremely late to the party.

But what if we’re living in a simulation?

I miss the days when tropical storms were only named when they had 3/4 of an eyewall developed.

NOAA just doubled down on an above average season. Would need the basin to light up soon for that to happen IMO.

Doubling down?

Interesting…

Noticed it too late last night. It looks like dry air is more of an inhibitor than shear and 06z looked a little more organized entering the Gulf than 00z. Would need a lot to develop but as long as it’s convectively active it’s worth a casual eye?

In addition to decaying fronts, I do think we will see a couple of the larger tropical waves that struggle in the MDR find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic. I also think that once the stability issues break in the eastern MDR we see an uptick in development there, before most of those systems get recurved or shredded by the TUTTs that will be lurking. It looks like the eastern MDR heating up is about 6-10 days away. Unlike last week, it looks like the signal for activity is moving up in time rather than getting consistently pushed back on the ensembles.

Enjoy that while you can lol

It has been relentless and the crabgrass is trying to make a resurgence. Shrubs and bushes are massive now lol.

Congrats PF on the NAM What a model

Yeah more scattered stuff on the HRRR.